January 27, 2021
Summary: An atmospheric river of air and a 170 MPH jet stream sweeping inland from southwest to northeast across central California. There are locations in the mountains above San Simeon which have recorded more than 7 inches of rain just today. The south valley, mainly in Kern County, has been under the gun with a rain shadow all day where steady amounts of precipitation have been accumulating from northern Kings and Tulare Counties northward. Rainfall amounts between 1 to 3 inches have been recorded today along the Sierra Nevada from the Tule River drainage basin north. High winds have also been occurring in some areas which is discussed below in the wind summary.
The AR, of pineapple connection, will continue to sweep inland over the same areas through Thursday evening. This feed of energy will finally move southward into southern California Friday, allowing heavy precipitation to drop off into showers Friday, ending in most areas by Friday evening.
A zone of weak upper level high pressure will build over the southern 2/3 of California, driving the storm track further north. Models still indicate a low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska, spreading precipitation over northern and central California from Monday night through Tuesday night. So far, it appears the main dynamics of this system will be further north.
After Wednesday of next week, I’m becoming more concerned about the potential for cold weather and subfreezing overnight lows. Models point towards a massive high covering the eastern Pacific with a large ridge extending into western and northwest Canada while a winter storm develops over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a strong off shore flow will develop next Thursday along with a north/northeast flow aloft which may begin to pump modified arctic air into California. It’s way too early to talk potential, but keep it in the back of your mind that below freezing conditions may return by early next week.
Forecast: Rain, heavy at times, tonight through Thursday north of Kern County with periods of light showers in Kern County. Rain likely over the entire valley Thursday night, turning to showers Friday morning, tapering off Friday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning. mostly clear to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Monday with patchy night and morning fog developing. Increasing cloudiness Monday night. a chance of showers late Tuesday and Tuesday night. a slight chance of showers Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/55/42/55 | Reedley 49/56/44/55 | Dinuba 49/54/42/56 | |
| Porterville 50/57/43/56 | Lindsay 49/57/42/56 | Delano 50/58/44/54 | |
| Bakersfield 50/61/45/55 | Taft 52/58/47/54 | Arvin 51/60/43/56 | |
| Lamont 52/59/45/54 | Pixley 50/58/44/55 | Tulare 48/55/42/56 | |
| Woodlake 49/56/42/56 | Hanford 49/55/43/56 | Orosi 48/55/42/55 | |
Winds: The following are peak wind gusts as of 1:00pm: Bakersfield 41 MPH, Taft 44 MPH, Kettleman Hills 51 MPH, Merced 51 MPH, Rancho Rd. Kern County 51 MPH, Mettler 36 MPH, bottom of the Grapevine 65 MPH.
Strong differences in pressure will continue between northern and southern California. North of Kern County tonight into Thursday morning, expect winds mainly out of the southeast at 20 to 35 MPH at times with gusts to near 50 possible. The east side of the valley north of Kern County can expect winds mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with possible gusts to 35. In Kern County near the base of the Tehachapi wind gusts to near 70 MPH are possible with 50 to 60 MPH gusts possible from Lamont, stretching westward to Taft. Gusts to near 45 MPH are possible as far north as Bakersfield.
Winds throughout the valley will decrease Thursday afternoon and night to around 10 to 20 MPH with higher gusts. Winds Friday through Saturday will generally be in the 8 to 15 MPH range.
Rain: The following are rainfall amounts as of 1:00pm. Bakersfield .01, Taft .07, Fresno .33, Westlands .59, Del Rey .35, Madera .20, Firebaugh .68. Most locations in southern Tulare County and Kern County have recorded just trace amounts to a few hundredths.
Rain, heavy at times, will continue north of Kern County through Thursday morning. Rain will encompass Kern County Thursday afternoon and night, locally heavy at times. The rain will turn to showers Friday, ending by evening.
For the rest of this event, anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain can be expected north of Kern County with heaviest amounts just west of Interstate 5 and on the east side, especially near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Just periods of light showers tonight and Thursday morning in Kern County, then finally rain Thursday afternoon and night, locally heavy at times. Kern County should receive anywhere from .50 to 1.00. expect dry weather Friday night through Monday night with a chance of showers returning Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly from Fresno County north. After Wednesday, it looks like we’ll enter into a prolonged period of dry weather.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for at least the next week. Models after Wednesday of next week are trying to show a colder, drier pattern. The configuration would set up a north to northeast flow over California, possibly pumping some modified air into the region.
Next update: January 28/am