January 28, 2021
Summary: The atmospheric river of air continues to train over the exact same real estate it has for the past two days, racking up impressive amounts of precipitation in Kings, Fresno, and Madera Counties with puny amounts in Kern County and eastern Tulare County. More rainfall totals are detailed below.
As the low finally pivots towards the central and southern California coasts, rain will finally overspread Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Expect widespread rain tonight through tomorrow morning, locally heavy at times. As the low finally moves inland through southern California Friday, the rain will break off into showers, ending Friday evening.
A zone of weak upper level high pressure will build over the southern 2/3 of California later tomorrow night through Monday morning.
Models continue to indicate the next trough will extend from British Columbia to central California late Monday night through Tuesday evening for the likelihood of showers. However, precip amounts will pale in comparison to the current storm.
Models continue to show a massive high building over the eastern Pacific with western Canada and the western U.S. flanked on the high’s eastern rim. This will result in a northerly flow aloft. Latest model runs do not indicate a low pressure system will develop in the Desert Southwest as earlier models had indicated. It does appear a full blown arctic outbreak will begin after Wednesday with the air mass overrunning the Rocky Mountain region and the Midwest, leaving California relatively unscathed. Even so, frost nights will be possible after Wednesday, but nothing serious is anticipated at this time. After Wednesday, expect an extended period of dry weather.
Forecast: Rain tonight through Friday morning, possibly heavy at times. Showers Friday afternoon, ending during the evening. Mostly cloudy Friday night through Saturday morning. partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Monday morning with patchy fog. Increasing clouds late Monday. A chance of showers late Monday night with rain becoming likely Tuesday and Tuesday night. partly cloudy Wednesday and Thursday with periods of low clouds and fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 44/55/36/56 | Reedley 44/56/36/56 | Dinuba 43/54/34/57 | |
| Porterville 44/56/37/57 | Lindsay 42/55/34/56 | Delano 44/56/37/57 | |
| Bakersfield 45/55/41/57 | Taft 46/54/44/54 | Arvin 43/55/39/57 | |
| Lamont 44/55/39/58 | Pixley 43/56/35/56 | Tulare 42/55/34/55 | |
| Woodlake 43/56/35/56 | Hanford 44/55/36/56 | Orosi 42/55/34/55 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast tonight at 10 to 20 MPH. gusts to 35 MPH are possible in Kern County this evening. Winds Friday will be variable to 20 MPH. Winds Friday night through Sunday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Sunday and generally at or less than 6 MPH nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The following are storm totals as of 1:00pm: Bakersfield .01, Mettler .09, Taft .05, Buttonwillow .02, Belridge .07, Porterville .03, Huron 1.58, Coalinga 2.34, Lemoore 1.42, Hanford .49, Visalia .10. Del Rey .76 Fresno .94, and Wetlands 1.66.
In the Sierra Nevada, Coarsegold has recorded 5 inches, Bass Lake 3.20, Kaiser Point 6.72.
The train of energy that has soaked Kings, Fresno, and Madera County for the past two days will finally inch its way over to Tulare and Kern Counties tonight. expect rain, heavy at times, tonight and tomorrow morning, turning to showers Friday afternoon with dry weather beginning Friday night. Rainfall from this afternoon through Friday evening will range from an additional .50 to 1.00 at most locations.
After Friday evening, our next opportunity for rain will come late Monday night through Tuesday evening. It now appears likely that measurable rain will occur, with generally light amounts. Expect dry weather to begin Wednesday and continue for at least a week after that.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 tonight. It is possible the coldest low lying, wind could dip into the lower 30s Saturday morning to Monday morning, Above freezing conditions can be expected Tuesday.
Models are now indicating a colder weather pattern that will set up Wednesday of next week won’t be quite as cold as earlier models runs had indicated. Even so, it appears an arctic air mass will invade the interior west with California under a northerly flow aloft. It’s much too early to talk numbers. Just be advised we may see some frost nights possibly as early as Wednesday of next week.
Next update: January 29/am