January 29, 2021
Some of the amazing rain totals from this storm are detailed below in the rainfall summary. The rain has now tapered off into scattered showers. The main cold core low will move through central and southern California today, bringing with it the possibility of thunderstorms. The balloon soundings above both Vandenberg AFB and Oakland show a freezing level at just below 4,000 feet, putting the snow level down to3,000-3,500 feet. As the low moves into the interior west tonight, showers will end with a return to dry weather as a weak zone of upper level high pressure covers the southern 2/3 of California through Monday with a westerly flow aloft. This will return at least patchy fog and low clouds to the valley during the later night and early morning hours.
A trough of low pressure will stretch from British Columbia to central California Monday with the main dynamics remaining over the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Even so, it does appear likely that light precipitation will spread across the valley late Monday night through Tuesday. This storm will move pretty quickly down the valley, so precipitation amounts will be light.
As this system moves into the interior west Wednesday, a massive high both at the surface and aloft will build northward into the Gulf of Alaska and eventually into the state of Alaska. An arctic air mass will punch southward into the Rocky Mountain region Thursday and points eastward. The flow aloft above California will become northerly, resulting in below average temperatures and at least local frost beginning Thursday morning. we are fortunate that we now have a soaking wet valley floor, meaning any cold weather will be nudged up a few degrees because of wet soil conditions.
A huge blocking ridge will remain along the Pacific coast through next weekend. Longer range models maintain the return of a blocking ridge pattern, but with the eastern Pacific high remaining off shore, allowing a northerly flow to allow below average temperatures to continue.
Forecast: Periods of showers this morning. scattered showers this afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight and Saturday morning with patchy morning fog and low clouds. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Monday evening. A chance of showers after midnight Monday, becoming likely Tuesday. A slight chance of showers Tuesday night. partly cloudy Wednesday. mostly clear Wednesday night through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/35/57/35/61 | Reedley 56/34/57/34/62 | Dinuba 54/33/56/34/60 |
| Porterville 55/34/57/34/62 | Lindsay 54/33/57/33/61 | Delano 56/37/57/35/62 |
| Bakersfield 55/39/58/39/63 | Taft 53/42/57/44/63 | Arvin 55/38/58/37/63 |
| Lamont 55/38/58/37/63 | Pixley 54/34/57/34/61 | Tulare 54/33/57/33/60 |
| Woodlake 55/34/57/34/61 | Hanford 55/35/57/35/61 | Orosi 54/33/57/34/61 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Increasing clouds 41/63 |
Tuesday
Showers likely 43/55 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 34/52 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 32/55 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 32/57 |
Two Week Outlook: February 4 through February 10: This model shows only a minimal chance of rain during this time frame. It also indicates we will be on the western side of a cold low, resulting in below average temperatures.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be generally variable, ranging between 8 and 15 MPH. Gusts to near 20 MPH are possibly, mainly near showers. Tonight through Monday, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and generally at or less than 12 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The following are some amazing storm totals as of 6:00am: Bakersfield .63, Mettler .47, Taft 1.01, Belridge 1.12, Shafter 1.73, Lamont 1.41, Delano .77, Porterville .62, Visalia 1.27, Hanford 1,83, Lemoore 2.86, Stratford 1.94, Huron 2.23, Harris Ranch 2.45, Parlier 1.59, Del Rey 1.77, Fresno 2.25, Merced 3.21.
In the Sierra Nevada, a couple of heavier rain fall totals were: Mariposa 6.14, Bass Lake 7.92, Kaiser Point 8.24, all of which fell as snow which translates into 10 to 15 feet of snow.
The heavy rain has broken off into scattered showers. The chance of showers will continue today, especially during the morning hours, ending by this evening. The wild card is a pool of very cold air aloft is above us today which may be enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. From this point on, most locations will record less than .25 with more falling where thunderstorms occur. Small hail would also be a possibility.
Expect dry weather tonight through Monday evening with a chance of light showers after midnight Monday night through Tuesday. Generally, at or less than .25 is anticipated from this next storm. Dry weather will prevail Tuesday night through next weekend and more than likely beyond.
Frost Discussion: It’s possible tonight and Sunday and Monday mornings that the coldest locations will chill down to near 32. The current air mass is very cold, however with a very wet valley floor and residual cloud cover, most locations will be slightly above freezing the next few nights. Above freezing conditions will prevail Tuesday as a fast moving system slides through.
Beginning Wednesday, a massive high will build over the eastern Pacific northward not Alaska. California will be on the eastern fringe of this high with a northerly flow aloft which will move colder and drier air into the region. Fortunately, models show most of the arctic air moving into the Rocky Mountain region and points eastward. Even so, beginning Thursday morning through next weekend, upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible.
We’ll continue to monitor this pattern very closely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/36% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .30, Parlier .29, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .64, Orange Cove .26, Porterville .NA, Delano .34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 49, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville NA, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 73/24. Average Temperatures: 57/36
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1366. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.5 +3.6 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 4.75, or -.69 or 89% of average. Month to Date: 3.33 or +1.36
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.10, +or- -1.86 or 37% of average. Month to date .36, or -.64
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 776, Parlier, 907, Arvin, 732, Belridge, 837, Shafter, 838, Stratford, 868, Delano, 932, Porterville, 874
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:02 am Sunset: 5:23 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:19
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 50 / 47 / 1.50 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 53 / 48 / M /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 48 / 0.89 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 49 / 0.59 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 54 / 49 / 1.07 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 50 / 0.21 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1551 / 50 / 47 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 47 / T /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 50 / 43 / 0.05 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.78 5.20 72 5.27 73 7.18 14.06
MODESTO 0.36 4.59 71 3.92 61 6.42 13.11
MERCED 0.98 5.12 86 M M 5.96 12.50
MADERA M 1.05 17 M M 6.03 12.02
FRESNO 0.86 3.83 70 M M 5.44 11.50
HANFORD 0.60 2.06 41 M M 5.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 37 M M 2.99 6.47
BISHOP 0.01 0.38 15 1.16 45 2.59 5.18
SALINAS 0.07 3.96 63 5.99 96 6.24 12.83
PASO ROBLES 2.25 4.83 79 6.61 108 6.13 12.78
SANTA MARIA 1.79 5.08 78 4.79 74 6.50 13.95
Next report: January 29/pm