February 4, 2021
The balloon sounding above Oakland a few hours ago indicated the freezing level has jumped all the way up to near 12,000 feet. Yesterday at this time, it stood at 5,500. That is an excellent indication that we are now on the eastern flank of a huge upper high over the eastern Pacific which has built as far north as Alaska. California will continue to be under a northwesterly flow aloft around the eastern side of the high. Satellite imagery depicts very well the upslope clouds continued to regenerate through the night along portions of the eastern and southern San Joaquin Valley. Pressures are somewhat higher over Nevada than they are off shore, to the low clouds were actually nudge a bit farther out into the valley, putting most of the Tulare County citrus belt under mostly clear skies.
An arctic air mass will plunge southeastward through Montana and Wyoming and into the Midwestern US Friday and well into next week. In the meantime, the high pressure system over the west will flatten out, generating a zonal flow or a west to east flow over California, resulting in a prolonged dry weather pattern. Areas of fog and low clouds will develop each morning and especially out towards the center of the valley, but locally elsewhere.
The sun angle is getting higher in the southern sky now that we’ve passed the midwinter months, so it’s doubtful fog and low clouds will persist on any given day.
Forecast: The low clouds in the eastern and southern San Joaquin Valley will burn off today. Expect mostly clear skies this afternoon through Sunday. Variable cloudiness Sunday night through Thursday interspersed with mostly clear skies.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/31/60/32/63 | Reedley 58/32/62/33/63 | Dinuba 57/30/60/32/62 |
| Porterville 58/31/62/33/64 | Lindsay 58/30/61/32/64 | Delano 59/31/61/34/65 |
| Bakersfield 58/37/62/39/65 | Taft 56/45/59/48/62 | Arvin 59/33/62/36/66 |
| Lamont 59/33/62/35/66 | Pixley 57/31/62/33/65 | Tulare 57/30/60/32/63 |
| Woodlake 57/31/62/33/64 | Hanford 58/32/62/34/64 | Orosi 57/31/63/33/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 37/62 |
Monday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 40/63 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 41/63 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 43/64 |
Thursday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 41/64 |
Two Week Outlook: February 11 through February 17: This model indicates predominately high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California. The chance of rain will be quite low during this time frame. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the mid morning to afternoon hours will be variable at or less than 10 MPH through Sunday. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be no more than 7 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry weather for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion: There was a considerable amount of clouds over portions of eastern and southern San Joaquin Valley overnight. There is enough of an off shore flow for the clouds to be nudged away from the Tulare County citrus belt during the early morning hours. Widespread low to mid 30s were the bottom line last night.
Lindsay and Ivanhoe each chilled down to 30 degrees while Lindcove, Orange Cove, and Sanger dropped to 31. These were the coldest locations as of 7:30 this morning. tonight, widespread low to mid 30s can be expected again with the coldest locations dropping to 28 to 29 degrees and most flatland locations in the 30 to 34 degree range. Slight moderation can be expected Saturday morning. even so, coldest locations will dip down to 30 to 31 or so.
For Sunday and above, the combination of a milder westerly flow aloft and in and out cloud cover from time to time will begin a prolonged period of above freezing weather.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom 28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Rd South
32 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/46% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .47, Parlier .46, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .60, Orange Cove .44, Porterville .NA, Delano .49. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 53, Porterville NA, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 77/28. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1470. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 55.3 +7.3 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 4.82, or -1.06 or 82% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.22
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.72, +or- -1.54 or 53% of average. Month to date .00 or -.13
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 806, Parlier, 941, Arvin, 754, Belridge, 872, Shafter, 863, Stratford, 903, Delano, 963, Porterville, 902
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:57 am Sunset: 5:29 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:30
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 59 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1500 / 52 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 48 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 53 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.43 83 5.27 68 7.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.90 85 3.92 56 6.96 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.62 89 0.00 0 6.31 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.05 17 0.00 0 6.34 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.82 82 0.00 0 5.88 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.03 57 0.00 0 5.30 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.72 53 0.00 0 3.25 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.30 47 1.16 42 2.75 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.47 66 5.99 88 6.79 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 5.93 89 6.61 99 6.68 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.90 83 4.79 67 7.11 13.95
Next report: February 4/pm