February 8, 2021
In the broad picture, the high pressure system over the eastern Pacific off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California is beginning to break down. A broad area of arctic low pressure is centered just north of Lake Superior and extends from eastern Washington on the west to New England on the east, resulting in bitterly cold temperatures from New England through the northern Rockies.
The flow aloft is now becoming westerly over California. A weak disturbance embedded within this flow will move through northern and central California Tuesday and Tuesday night. there is a chance of light showers over the high Sierra and increasing mid and high level clouds over the lower elevations. We may see some upslope clouds develop in the southern and eastern San Joaquin Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
The next weather system will move into northern California Friday. It will spread light showers into central California late Thursday and Friday, mainly north of Kern County. This is not an impressive system but it will clear the way for a stronger low pressure system to slide out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Sunday through Monday. This storm seems to have the best chance of providing a more significant impact on precipitation totals. It will be a fairly cold system and hopefully will be beneficial to what is a fairly decent snow pack over the high Sierra.
Forecast: After patchy fog this morning, mostly clear skies will prevail. Becoming partly cloudy tonight. variable cloudiness Tuesday through Wednesday night except mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. A chance of light showers Thursday night and Friday, mainly north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Friday night. increasing cloudiness again Saturday leading toa chance of rain Saturday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/39/64/41/64 | Reedley 66/40/64/41/64 | Dinuba 65/39/64/42/63 |
| Porterville 68/39/67/42/64 | Lindsay 67/39/65/40/65 | Delano 67/41/64/42/64 |
| Bakersfield 70/46/67/47/65 | Taft 68/51/66/51/64 | Arvin 70/40/68/42/66 |
| Lamont 70/41/64/42/64 | Pixley 66/41/64/42/63 | Tulare 65/39/64/41/63 |
| Woodlake 67/39/65/40/63 | Hanford 67/41/65/41/65 | Orosi 65/39/64/41/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
PM showers possible 43/65 |
Friday
Chance of showers 46/63 |
Saturday
PM showers possible 40/59 |
Sunday
Showers likely 41/58 |
Monday
AM showers 40/59 |
Two Week Outlook: February 14 through February 20: This model indicates predominately high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California. The chance of rain will be quite low during this time frame. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be at or less than 10 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday afternoon and night will be out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 MPH. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The next chance of measurable rain for the valley will arrive Thursday night into mainly the first half of the day Friday and mainly north of Kern County. Models continue to indicate this system will be rather weak but may drop as much as a tenth or two from Fresno County north and generally less than a tenth south of Fresno County. Dry weather will return Friday afternoon through most of the day Saturday. the chance of showers will again increase late Saturday night into early Monday. This system’s origins are in the Gulf of Alaska and it has moderately higher dynamic structure, meaning there will be a better chance of a more significant precipitation event, especially over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Most models indicate a ridge of high pressure becoming established in position off the southern and central California coast late Monday and lasting through most of next week to return the valley to a dry pattern.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees in the short, medium, and long range.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/44% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .57, Parlier .53, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .52, Orange Cove .54, Porterville .NA, Delano .52. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 49, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 79/24. Average Temperatures: 60/37
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1520. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 51.8 +3.8 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 4.82, or -1.29 or 79% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.45
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.72, +or- -1.67 or 51% of average. Month to date .00 or -.27
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 842, Parlier, 975, Arvin, 776, Belridge, 905, Shafter, 890, Stratford, 937, Delano, 996, Porterville, 937
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:54 am Sunset: 5:32 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:37
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 64 / 33 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 67 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 35 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.43 80 5.27 65 8.05 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.90 81 3.92 54 7.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.62 86 0.00 0 6.56 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.05 16 0.00 0 6.54 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.82 79 0.00 0 6.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.03 55 0.00 0 5.46 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.72 51 0.00 0 3.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.30 46 1.16 41 2.84 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.47 63 5.99 85 7.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.93 85 6.61 95 6.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.90 80 4.79 65 7.42 13.95
Next report: February 8/pm