February 9, 2021
A weak trough of low pressure and its associated cold front will move through central California this afternoon. Already, Doppler radar is depicting virga, or rain falling but not reaching the ground. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few sprinkles however before the day is over. Cooler air will overspread our region later today. Already, the freezing level over Oakland has dropped to8,700 feet, which is certainly not particularly cold, but definitely cooler by recent standards.
The current system is essentially clearing the way for two more storms to move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California later this week. Showers will reach into Merced County by late Thursday afternoon and will spread southward over the remainder of the valley Thursday night and Friday morning. models also show a fairly substantial rain shadow in wester Fresno and Kings Counties, zapping rainfall potential in those areas. This is a fairly compact system and a fairly fast mover, so dry weather will return by Friday afternoon as a weak ridge fills in behind the exiting storm.
Expect dry weather Friday night through Saturday morning. clouds will again be on the increase Saturday afternoon then showers will spread in from the northwest Saturday night and Sunday. This system is the coldest in the series and may drop snow levels down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Most model information this morning indicates the storm track will migrate further north Sunday night and Monday. There is enough model disparity however to call that a high confidence forecast. Even so, we’ll go with dry weather Monday through Friday of next week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today with a chance of sprinkles. Clearing along the west side and from Fresno County north tonight. mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County through Wednesday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with patchy night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Thursday afternoon. Showers likely Thursday night and Friday morning. mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. increasing cloudiness Saturday afternoon. Showers likely at times Saturday night through Sunday. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning. partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/42/65/41/64 | Reedley 66/42/65/41/63 | Dinuba 64/41/65/40/63 |
| Porterville 66/42/65/41/64 | Lindsay 64/41/65/40/62 | Delano 66/43/64/41/63 |
| Bakersfield 67/46/64/44/65 | Taft 64/50/61/50/63 | Arvin 67/44/64/42/62 |
| Lamont 66/44/64/43/63 | Pixley 65/’43/64/40/63 | Tulare 63/41/63/40/62 |
| Woodlake 65/42/65/40/62 | Hanford 64/42/64/41/63 | Orosi 64/41/64/40/62 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
AM showers 48/59 |
Saturday
PM showers 42/58 |
Sunday
Showers likely 44/58 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 41/60 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 42/65 |
Two Week Outlook: February 16 through February 22: About 80% of the lower 48 is projected to have below average temperatures. The valley is one of the few exceptions with near average temperatures. The chance of rain during this time frame remains very low.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: winds later today through the early evening hours will be out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 MPH. gusts to 20 MPH are possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds late tonight through Wednesday night will be light and variable. Winds Thursday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH then out of the northwest Friday at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: A few sprinkles are possible today, however measurable rain is not anticipated. Showers will spread along the valley late Thursday afternoon, continuing through Friday morning. along the eastern side of Fresno and Madera Counties, around .25 to.33 is anticipated. A rain shadow will develop in western Fresno and Kings County so less than .10 is anticipated there. In Tulare County, upwards to .20 to .25 is possible and upwards to .05 in the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will return Friday afternoon through Saturday.
Showers will return Saturday night through Sunday. So far, this storm on paper, anyway, looks a little more potent so the potential for .25 to .50 cannot be ruled out. Dry weather will return Sunday night. For now, it appears dry weather will continue Monday through Friday of next week, however there are many disparities on models.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees in the short, medium, and long range.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 91%/31% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .57, Parlier .52, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .56, Orange Cove .55, Porterville .NA, Delano .54. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 49, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 78/27. Average Temperatures: 60/38
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1547. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 51.6 +3.4 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 4.82, or -1.43 or 77% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.59
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.72, +or- -1.75 or 50% of average. Month to date .00 or -.35
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 851, Parlier, 985, Arvin, 784, Belridge, 913, Shafter, 896, Stratford, 946, Delano, 1005, Porterville, 940
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:52 am Sunset: 5:34 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:41
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 69 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 71 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 38 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.43 78 5.27 64 8.24 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.90 80 3.92 53 7.41 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.62 84 0.00 0 6.73 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.05 16 0.00 0 6.68 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.82 77 0.00 0 6.25 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.03 54 0.00 0 5.58 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.72 50 0.00 0 3.47 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.30 45 1.16 40 2.90 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.47 62 5.99 83 7.24 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.93 83 6.61 93 7.14 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.90 77 4.79 63 7.63 13.95
Next report: February 9/pm