February 16, 2021
The center of circulation of upper level high pressure is well off the California coast with a big trough extending from the Gulf of Alaska southeastward to the Pacific Northwest and finally into the interior western U.S. Fast moving disturbances continue to race southeastward into Nevada, Utah, with the Sierra Nevada being the dividing line between active weather over the interior west and dry weather over California. A 200+ mile per hour jet stream is running from northwest to southeast across Nevada. Over California, that jet stream is about 160 MPH. Strong surface pressure differences will set up today leading to strong winds over the high Sierra and Kern County Mountains. The last observation at Sandburg at the 4,100 elevation showed sustained winds at 47 MPH, gusting to 71. Winds will pick up in the valley today out of the northwest, diminishing by late evening.
The next system of note will arrive late Friday into Saturday. models show light precipitation spreading over northern California, possibly down to a Merced/Monterey line, but for now we’ll keep the forecast dry. After Saturday, the off shore high will begin to build inland for a warming trend which should hold through the middle of next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today except mostly cloudy over Kern County and much of Tulare county through midday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight through Thursday night. variable cloudiness Friday through Saturday. Clearing Saturday night. mostly clear Sunday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 60/33/60/34/64 | Reedley 59/33/60/33/65 | Dinuba 59/32/60/32/65 |
Porterville 59/33/60/32/66 | Lindsay 59/31/60/32/66 | Delano 59/34/60/33/66 |
Bakersfield 58/39/59/39/66 | Taft 56/44/58/46/65 | Arvin 58/38/59/37/66 |
Lamont 58/37/59/37/65 | Pixley 60/32/60/32/65 | Tulare 59/31/59/32/64 |
Woodlake 59/33/60/32/65 | Hanford 60/34/60/34/65 | Orosi 59/32/60/32/64 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
Mostly cloudy 39/65 |
Saturday
Mostly cloudy 42/58 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 34/58 |
Monday
Mostly clear 36/63 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 40/67 |
Two Week Outlook: February 23 through March 1: This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds will increase today out of the northwest generally in the 10 to 20 MPH range through this evening. Gusts over 30 MPH are possible along the west side. Winds tonight will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Winds Wednesday through Thursday night will be generally light and variable. Winds Friday through Friday night will again be out of the northwest at around 10 to 20 MPH.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Gusty winds out of the northwest will increase through this evening, issuing in a marginally cooler air mass. This northwesterly flow will also continue to regenerate upslope clouds over Kern and Tulare Counties into Wednesday morning. Where it clears tonight, lows downo roughly 30 are possible, mainly in river bottom and similar locations with most locations ranging from 32 to 36. Where cloud cover continues, readings will be above freezing. On Thursday morning, more locations may see mostly clear skies with widespread low to mid 30s. Coldest locations could reach down to 29 to 31 or so. Friday and Saturday mornings will be above freezing due to cloud cover. It’s possible coldest locations Sunday and Monday could approach the freezing mark, but no real frost threat is seen. After Monday, expect above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
Af |
Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
31 |
Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32` |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Ag |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 93%/51% Orange Cove, 98%/76%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .57, Parlier .42, Arvin .54, Orange Cove .40, Porterville .NA, Delano .51. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 54, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 49, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 80/27. Average Temperatures: 62/39
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1626. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.5 +3.6 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -1.63 or 76% of average. Month to Date: .29 or -.79
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -1.96 or 48% of average. Month to date .09 or -.56
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 879, Parlier, 1013, Arvin, 801, Belridge, 933, Shafter, 920, Stratford, 974, Delano, 1040, Porterville, 975
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:44 am Sunset: 5:42 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:55
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 59 / 49 / 0.01 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 49 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 58 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 46 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1509 / 66 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1549 / 67 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON T 6.86 77 5.27 59 8.86 14.06
MODESTO 0.02 6.37 80 3.92 49 7.99 13.11
MERCED 0.01 5.91 81 0.00 0 7.30 12.50
MADERA T M M 0.00 0 7.20 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 76 0.00 0 6.74 11.50
HANFORD T 3.05 51 0.00 0 6.02 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 48 0.00 0 3.78 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 52 1.16 37 3.11 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 4.68 60 5.99 76 7.84 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 77 6.61 85 7.74 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 73 4.79 57 8.36 13.95
Next report: February 16/pm