Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

February 16, 2021/report

February 16, 2021

The center of circulation of upper level high pressure is well off the California coast with a big trough extending from the Gulf of Alaska southeastward to the Pacific Northwest and finally into the interior western U.S.  Fast moving disturbances continue to race southeastward into Nevada, Utah, with the Sierra Nevada being the dividing line between active weather over the interior west and dry weather over California.  A 200+ mile per hour jet stream is running from northwest to southeast across Nevada.  Over California, that jet stream is about 160 MPH.  Strong surface pressure differences will set up today leading to strong winds over the high Sierra and Kern County Mountains.  The last observation at Sandburg at the 4,100 elevation showed sustained winds at 47 MPH, gusting to 71.  Winds will pick up in the valley today out of the northwest, diminishing by  late evening.

 

The next system of note will arrive late Friday into Saturday.  models show light precipitation spreading over northern California, possibly down to a Merced/Monterey line, but for now we’ll keep the forecast dry.  After Saturday, the off shore high will begin to build inland for a warming trend which should hold through the middle of next week.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today except mostly cloudy over Kern County and  much of Tulare county through midday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight through Thursday night.  variable cloudiness Friday through Saturday.  Clearing Saturday night.  mostly clear Sunday through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 60/33/60/34/64 Reedley 59/33/60/33/65 Dinuba 59/32/60/32/65
Porterville 59/33/60/32/66 Lindsay 59/31/60/32/66 Delano 59/34/60/33/66
Bakersfield 58/39/59/39/66 Taft 56/44/58/46/65 Arvin 58/38/59/37/66
Lamont 58/37/59/37/65 Pixley 60/32/60/32/65 Tulare 59/31/59/32/64
Woodlake 59/33/60/32/65 Hanford 60/34/60/34/65 Orosi 59/32/60/32/64

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly cloudy

39/65

Saturday

Mostly cloudy

42/58

Sunday

Mostly clear

34/58

Monday

Mostly clear

36/63

Tuesday

Mostly clear

40/67

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 23 through March 1:  This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures.  For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.

 

February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.      

 

February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation.  Temperatures should be marginally above average.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds will increase today out of the  northwest generally in the 10 to 20 MPH range through this evening.  Gusts over 30 MPH are possible along the west side.  Winds tonight will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 mph.  Winds Wednesday through Thursday night will be generally light and variable.  Winds Friday through Friday night will again be out of the northwest at around 10 to 20 MPH.

 

Rain Discussion:  Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost Discussion: Gusty winds out of the northwest will increase through this evening, issuing in a marginally cooler air mass.  This northwesterly flow will also continue to regenerate upslope clouds over Kern and Tulare Counties into Wednesday morning.  Where it clears tonight, lows downo roughly 30 are possible, mainly in river bottom and similar locations with  most locations ranging from 32 to 36.  Where cloud cover continues, readings will be above freezing.  On Thursday morning, more locations may see mostly clear skies with widespread low to mid 30s.  Coldest locations could reach down to 29 to 31 or so.  Friday and Saturday mornings will be above freezing due to cloud cover.  It’s possible coldest locations Sunday and Monday could approach the freezing mark, but no real frost threat is seen.  After Monday, expect above freezing conditions.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

32

Mcfarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

Af

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

31

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

32`

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Ag

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Low to mid 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 93%/51%  Orange Cove, 98%/76%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 40%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 30%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .57, Parlier .42, Arvin .54, Orange Cove .40, Porterville .NA, Delano .51. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 54, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 49, Delano 49

Record Temperatures: 80/27. Average Temperatures: 62/39

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1626.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.5 +3.6 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.11,  or -1.63 or 76% of average.  Month to Date: .29  or -.79

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  1.81, +or-  -1.96 or 48% of average.  Month to date  .09 or -.56

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 879, Parlier, 1013,  Arvin, 801, Belridge, 933, Shafter, 920, Stratford, 974, Delano, 1040, Porterville, 975

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:44 am   Sunset: 5:42 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:55

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  59 /  49 / 0.01 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  60 /  49 /    T /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  58 /  48 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  62 /  46 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  64 /  51 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  65 /  50 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  60 /  42 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1509 /  66 /  50 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  64 /  39 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1549 /  67 /  42 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                         T    6.86    77    5.27    59     8.86    14.06

MODESTO                       0.02    6.37    80    3.92    49     7.99    13.11

MERCED                        0.01    5.91    81    0.00     0     7.30    12.50

MADERA                           T       M     M    0.00     0     7.20    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    5.11    76    0.00     0     6.74    11.50

HANFORD                          T    3.05    51    0.00     0     6.02    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.81    48    0.00     0     3.78     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.61    52    1.16    37     3.11     5.18

SALINAS                       0.01    4.68    60    5.99    76     7.84    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    5.96    77    6.61    85     7.74    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.08    73    4.79    57     8.36    13.95

 

Next report: February 16/pm