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Forecast

February 17, 2021/report

February 17, 2021

A very strong northwest to southeast jet stream is diving through Nevada at 200+ MPH.  this same northwesterly flow  is not as strong over California but it’s strong enough to continue to transport relatively cold air into the region.  There was local frost overnight which is discussed below.

 

The jet stream will begin to shift further east tonight and Thursday ahead of a new trough of low pressure which will  move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California later Friday into Saturday morning.  light showers will spread down to a Bay Area/Stockton line late Thursday night.  no precipitation is anticipated for the valley but there is a chance of light snow showers along the Sierra Nevada north of Kings Canyon.  Another round of gusty winds will commence late Friday afternoon through Saturday as pressure differences increase between the northwest coast and the Desert Southwest.

 

The air aloft is cold but not critically so.  The freezing level according to the sounding above Oakland this morning was 7,600 feet.

 

After Saturday, upper level high pressure which has been off the Pacific coast will begin to shift inland to continue the dry pattern through at least the middle of next week.  It appears some kind of low pressure system may affect central California next Thursday, however there are many differences between models regarding timing, intensity, and location of this feature.  For now, we’ll keep the chance of showers out of the forecast.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy in Kern and Southeastern Tulare County today with partly cloudy skies elsewhere.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this afternoon through Thursday night.  increasing cloudiness Friday.  Variable cloudiness Friday night through Saturday.  mostly clear Saturday night and Sunday, possibly remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and eastern Tulare
County.  Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Wednesday with a warming trend.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 59/32/64/34/66 Reedley 60/33/65/35/67 Dinuba 59/30/64/34/65
Porterville 59/32/65/35/67 Lindsay 59/30/65/34/66 Delano 60/32/65/36/67
Bakersfield 59/38/65/41/68 Taft 57/41/64/45/67 Arvin 58/34/66/38/68
Lamont 58/33/66/39/68 Pixley 59/31/65/35/67 Tulare 59/30/65/34/66
Woodlake 59/32/65/35/66 Hanford 59/32/65/36/67 Orosi 59/31/65/35/66

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly cloudy

39/61

Sunday

Mostly clear

35/62

Monday

Mostly clear

36/65

Tuesday

Mostly clear

41/71

Wednesday

Mostly clear

41/70

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 24 through March 2:  This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures.  For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.

 

February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.      

 

February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation.  Temperatures should be marginally above average.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds through Thursday night will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Friday afternoon through Saturday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH.  gusts to around 30 MPH will be possible along the west side.

 

Rain Discussion:  Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost Discussion: As of 6:00am, the coldest reading I could find were 31 at Sanger, Fowler, Lindcove and Lindsay.  All other locations were between 32 and 37.  The cloud factor will be considerably reduced tonight.  it’s possible isolated river bottom and similar locations could drop down to 29 to 30 with most locations between 31 and 36.  Minor modification can be expected Friday morning with above freezing conditions Saturday morning.  readings in the lower 30 swill again be possible Sunday and Monday mornings as a reinforcing shot of moderately cold air moves down the valley.  Expect above freezing temperatures beyond Monday as  upper level high pressure results in a warming trend.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

32

Mcfarland

32

Ducor

32

Tea Pot Dome

31

Lindsay

30

Exeter

30

Famoso

32

Madera

32

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

32

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

31

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

30

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

30

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s.  Low to mid 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/52%  Orange Cove, 100%/53%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .63, Parlier .44, Arvin .50, Orange Cove .41, Porterville .NA, Delano .52. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 55, Porterville NA, Delano 50

Record Temperatures: 84/29. Average Temperatures: 62/39

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1638.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.5 +3.4 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.11,  or -1.70 or 75% of average.  Month to Date: .29  or -.86

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  1.81, +or-  -2.01 or 47% of average.  Month to date  .09 or -.61

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 886, Parlier, 1020,  Arvin, 803, Belridge, 937, Shafter, 926, Stratford, 982, Delano, 1048, Porterville, 996

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:43 am   Sunset: 5:43 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:59

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  59 /  49 / 0.01 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  60 /  49 /    T /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  58 /  48 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  62 /  46 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  64 /  51 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  65 /  50 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  60 /  42 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1509 /  66 /  50 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  64 /  39 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1549 /  67 /  42 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

Information not available.

 

Next report: February 17/pm