February 23, 2021
The current pattern of high pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific and storms riding over the top of the high then southeastward through the Pacific Northwest and finally into the Great Basin continues this morning. one such system is diving into Idaho and northern Utah at this hour. Behind this system, surface high pressure will jump up over the Great Basin Wednesday and Wednesday night, generating yet another strong off shore flow. It’s possible winds could work their way down the northern half of the valley Wednesday afternoon and night and possibly along the far west side of the valley from Kings County north. For now, it appears winds will remain light over the rest of the valley as the southern Sierra Nevada acts as a 12,000 foot buffer.
Late Wednesday and Thursday, the high will build into the Pacific Northwest followed quickly by another system which will dive into the Great Basin just to the east of the Sierra Nevada Thursday night and Friday. A few snow showers could occur over the high Sierra.
The pattern will become more interesting over the weekend. Yet another low pressure system will dive into the Great Basin Saturday as high pressure over the eastern Pacific juts northeastward into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This time around, a strong off shore flow will develop both at the surface and aloft, spreading a cooler air mass into the valley.
Models continue to point towards the possibility of rain next week. There is a great deal of variation on solutions. A low will move out of the Gulf of Alaska to a position off the northern California coast Monday. The main question is whether this system will move southeastward into California or slide southward too far off shore but eventually sliding through southern California around Wednesday. more hope arises after Wednesday, though, as a fairly strong low could potentially move through California around Thursday night or Friday.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday with occasional high clouds. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Monday. Increasing clouds Monday night. Mostly cloudy Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/36/69/35/67 | Reedley 71/37/68/35/67 | Dinuba 70/35/69/34/66 |
| Porterville 71/36/69/34/67 | Lindsay 71/35/69/34/67 | Delano 71/37/68/35/67 |
| Bakersfield 72/44/70/40/68 | Taft 70/48/68/46/66 | Arvin 72/39/69/38/68 |
| Lamont 71/31/69/37/67 | Pixley 71/36/69/35/67 | Tulare 70/35/68/34/67 |
| Woodlake 70/36/69/35/66 | Hanford 71/37/69/36/66 | Orosi 70/36/69/34/65 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 35/64 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 37/61 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 34/60 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 38/64 |
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 40/61 |
Two Week Outlook: March 1 through March 7: This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds today through Friday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. However, on Wednesday afternoon and night, winds will begin to pick up out of the northwest along the far west side of the valley at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to near 30 MPH possible along the Interstate 5 corridor. Expect another round of gusty winds Saturday and Sunday.
Rain Discussion: There is a minimal chance of rain next Monday night and Tuesday, although model solutions vary so much that I’m hesitant to add precipitation to the forecast yet. We may have a better chance of precipitation after Wednesday of next week as models show a storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and through California next Thursday and Friday.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but possibly just slightly above in the coldest locations. Expect above freezing conditions Thursday and Friday as well, but again just slightly above in the coldest locations.
Over the weekend, a strong off shore flow will develop both at the surface and aloft, spreading a cooler air mass over California. This configuration is favorable for strong, gusty winds, especially along the west side of the valley. This may drive down dew points enough to allow local frost to occur. In and out cloud cover will also play a role. For now, it doesn’t appear to be a serious spring frost event, but rather one which could produce local frost in the traditionally cold frost pockets.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.. Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 88%/30% Porterville, 96%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .81, Parlier .72, Arvin .72, Orange Cove .70, Porterville .73, Delano .75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 64/40
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1726. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 51.9 +2.1 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -2.15 or 70% of average. Month to Date: .29 or -1.31
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.29 or 44% of average. Month to date .09 or -.89
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 933, Parlier, 1073, Arvin, 847, Belridge, 984, Shafter, 969, Stratford, 1035, Delano, 1102, Porterville, 1049
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:36 am Sunset: 5:49 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:11
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 70 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 71 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 72 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 73 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 54 / 37 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / 56 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 67 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.86 72 5.27 55 9.50 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.38 74 3.92 46 8.58 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.92 75 M M 7.92 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.19 15 M M 7.79 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 70 M M 7.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 47 M M 6.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 44 M M 4.10 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 48 1.32 40 3.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.73 56 5.99 71 8.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 71 6.61 79 8.41 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 66 4.79 52 9.15 13.95
Next report: February 23/pm