February 23, 2021
Summary: Upper level high pressure continues to reside over the eastern Pacific Ocean with the northern rim of the high reaching into Alaska. Waves of low pressure slide down the eastern side of the high through the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin. One such disturbance is moving through Washington and Oregon now and will move into eastern Nevada and Utah by Wednesday afternoon. As this system races eastward, a strong surface high will bump up over the Great Basin which, in part, will create a strong Santa Ana wind configuration later Wednesday through Thursday. High resolution models indicate gusty north to northwest winds will move down the northern half of the valley along the far west side later Wednesday and Wednesday night. generally, over the east side and in Kern County, winds will remain light.
A rather robust low will dive into the Great Basin Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds northeastward into western Canada in the Pacific Northwest. This will generate a strong off shore flow both at the surface and aloft, spreading a cooler air mass into central California. As the main low center drops into the Great Basin, there will be a chance of light show showers over the high Sierra during the weekend. Models show a closed low forming over Arizona and southern California Sunday night and Monday, continuing the off shore flow.
It now appears there’s virtually no chance of rain for the first half of next week. Models show the next low sliding too far off shore to affect California. It looks like the next chance of precipitation may arrive about a week from Friday.
Forecast: Outside of some high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/68/34/67 | Reedley 36/69/34/66 | Dinuba 35/68/33/67 | |
| Porterville 35/70/33/65 | Lindsay 34/68/33/65 | Delano 36/70/34/67 | |
| Bakersfield 43/70/40/68 | Taft 48/68/44/65 | Arvin 38/70/36/68 | |
| Lamont 38/70/35/67 | Pixley 36/69/33/67 | Tulare 35/68/33/65 | |
| Woodlake 35/68/33/65 | Hanford 36/70/34/67 | Orosi 35/68/33/66 | |
Winds: Winds through Friday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours. However, on Wednesday and Wednesday night, gusty west to northwest winds will spread over the northern half of the valley and into western Fresno and Kings Counties. Winds generally will average 10 to 20 MPH though gusts over 30 MPH cannot be ruled out. These winds will diminish Thursday but expect another round of gusty winds this coming weekend.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight but only slightly above in the very coldest locations. A strong off shore flow will begin later Wednesday into Thursday. Gusty north to northwest winds will blow down the west side of the valley, possibly lowering dew points throughout the region and local frost will be possible Thursday morning but more so Friday morning. an even stronger off shore flow will develop over the weekend, spreading a cooler air mass into central California, however wind conditions and cloud cover will also play starring roles. Even so, I wouldn’t discount the possibility of coldest locations dropping to 29 to 30 degrees. As usual, we’ll approach this on a day by day basis.
Next update: February 24/am