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Forecast

February 25, 2021/report

February 25, 2021

The latest weather system to race around the eastern rim of upper level high pressure off shore is currently entering the Pacific Northwest.  The strong Santa Ana wind configuration of higher pressure over the Great Basin than off shore will last another few hours then will begin to wane.  Currently, winds near the top of the Grapevine are out of the east at 36 MPH, gusting to 52.  Some of these winds overnight dropped down the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi in a few locations.  Winds currently at the bottom of the Grapevine are out of the south at 25 MPH, gusting to 35.  All of this is injecting somewhat lower dew points onto the valley floor, thus local frost is anticipated over the next couple of nights which is discussed in the frost section below.

 

The aforementioned low moving through the Pacific Northwest will briefly end the off shore flow this afternoon through Friday morning, only to have it increase again late Friday through the weekend as surface high pressure once again jumps up behind this system with rapidly falling pressure over the Desert Southwest.  In the meantime, that high off shore will ridge into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, creating a northerly flow aloft.  It does appear some kind of major shift in the pattern will occur about Tuesday night or Wednesday.  a low will drop southward out of the Gulf of Alaska Sunday night and Monday, forming a closed low off the northern California coast.  Some  models had been trending towards this system weakening as it moves through southern California about the middle of the week for a chance of light showers.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Monday night.  increasing clouds Tuesday leading to a slight chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.  partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 65/33/66/34/65 Reedley 65/;33/66/33/64 Dinuba 64/32/65/32/65
Porterville 66/32/67/33/64 Lindsay 64/31/65/32/65 Delano 67/33/67/33/63
Bakersfield 67/40/67/40/63 Taft 65/45/66/44/62 Arvin 67/36/67/37/64
Lamont 65/35/67/35/63 Pixley 64/32/65/33/65 Tulare 64/31/65/32/64
Woodlake 64/31/65/32/65 Hanford 65/33/67/33/64 Orosi 64/31/67/32/64

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

34/62

Monday

Mostly clear

35/67

Tuesday

Increasing clouds

39/68

Wednesday

Slight chance of showers

35/61

Thursday

Partly cloudy

40/64

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 4 through March 10:  This model continues to indicate a northwesterly flow will be dominant during this period for somewhat below average temperatures.  For a change, however, it also indicates at least an even chance of normal precipitation.

 

March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest.  Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and  most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record.  Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.

 

Winds Discussion:  The localized gusty southerly winds in the extreme south valley will end in another few hours.  The remainder of the valley will have winds of generally at or less than 12 MPH today, variable in nature and less than 6 MPH tonight with periods of near calm conditions.  Late Friday through Saturday, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH.  From Fresno County north and along the west side, gusts may eclipse 30 MPH.  Winds Saturday night and Sunday will continue to be mainly out of the north/northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.

 

Rain Discussion:  Dry weather will continue through at least Monday night.  even though there continues to be differences on modeling information, some do show a low developing well off the northern California coast Sunday.  It will drop southward off shore then inland through the southern half of California Tuesday night and Wednesday.  any precipitation from this event will likely be light as models show this system weakening as it moves on shore.

 

Frost Discussion: The continuation of periodic round of off shore winds have lowered dew points enough that widespread low to mid 30s can be expected the next few nights.  In fact, some of the Santa Anas in southern California have made it down to the extreme south valley, injecting another round of dry air to the valley floor.  Late Friday through the weekend, yet another strong off shore flow will develop.  Wind conditions will play a central role Friday through Sunday.  It’s possible isolated river bottom areas could drop to 28 to 29 degrees or so, however the vast majority of locations will be in the low to mid 30s each night.

 

By Tuesday, increasing clouds and a westerly flow will finally move temperatures above the freezing mark for several days.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

31

Strathmore

32

Mcfarland

32

Ducor

AF

Tea Pot Dome

31

Lindsay

30

Exeter

31

Famoso

32

Madera

Af

Belridge

31

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

29

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

32

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the mid 30s. Low to mid 20s

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 85%/25%  Porterville, 93%/33%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .86, Parlier .79, Arvin .87, Orange Cove .78, Porterville .80, Delano .81. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 55, Delano 48.

Record Temperatures: 80/30. Average Temperatures: 64/40

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1747.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.0 +2.1 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.11,  or -2.30 or 69% of average.  Month to Date: .29  or -1.46

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  1.81, +or-  -2.38 or 43% of average.  Month to date  .09 or -.98

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 943, Parlier, 1090,  Arvin, 852, Belridge, 996, Shafter, 976, Stratford, 1051, Delano, 1117, Porterville, 1065

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:33 am   Sunset: 5:51 pm   Hours of Daylight:  11:15

 

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  69 /  37 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  68 /  36 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  70 /  44 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  70 /  39 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  71 /  35 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  70 /  60 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  70 /  39 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  72 /  38 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1551 /  69 /  51 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  68 /  43 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    6.86    71    5.27    54     9.67    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.38    73    3.92    45     8.74    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.92    73    0.00     0     8.11    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       M     M       M     M     7.97    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    5.11    69       M     M     7.41    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.05    46       M     M     6.64    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.81    43    0.00     0     4.19     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.61    47    1.32    39     3.40     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    4.73    55    5.99    69     8.65    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    5.96    69    6.61    77     8.61    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.08    65    4.79    51     9.37    13.95

 

Next report: February 25/pm