March 3, 2021
On satellite imagery, a storm off the southern California coast looks quite impressive. However, it is weakening and will move through mainly the southern ¼ of California. Some light showers may spread into the Kern County mountains with a slight chance of sprinkles as far north as Bakersfield, but the main impact will be heavy cloud cover and marginally cooler weather.
The low is moving rather quickly, and will speed eastward into the Four Corners region Thursday. Upper level high pressure will then build in from the west for a clearing trend and warming temperatures Thursday and Friday.
The next low pressure system will drop out of the northeast Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and central California Saturday. models indicate the southern portion of the trough will be quite weak with the possibility of light showers as far south as Fresno County and along the Sierra Nevada. This storm, though, will be an opener. In other words it will remove upper level high pressure off the California coast. Even though there are a number of differences in timing and intensity of storms moving in next week, it appears we may finally be moving into an active weather pattern with a big trough of low pressure stretching from the Gulf of Alaska to southern California, allowing impulses of low pressure to move through California from time to time.
Even further down the road, models continue to point towards a favorable pattern for precipitation from time to time, so it appears March may treat us better than January and February.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today with a slight chance of sprinkles, mainly in Kern County. Partly cloudy tonight. mostly clear Thursday through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night leading to a small chance of light showers from Fresno County northward Saturday and Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. A chance of showers Monday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/38/72/38/75 | Reedley 68/37/71/37/73 | Dinuba 66/37/71/38/72 |
| Porterville 68/37/71/38/75 | Lindsay 67/36/71/37/75 | Delano 68/38/72/39/76 |
| Bakersfield 68/41/73/44/77 | Taft 65/45/70/47/74 | Arvin 68/39/72/41/78 |
| Lamont 67/39/72/40/78 | Pixley 68/36/71/38/75 | Tulare 66/36/71/37/73 |
| Woodlake 67/37/71/38/73 | Hanford 67/37/72/39/74 | Orosi 66/36/71/37/73 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly cloudy 42/65 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 40/65 |
Monday
Chance of showers 43/61 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 44/61 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 43/63 |
Two Week Outlook: March 10 through March 16: This model shows a fairly strong indication of above average precipitation. The flow will be generally out of the northwest for somewhat below average temperatures.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be variable to around 12 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds tonight through Friday night will be generally at or less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH.
Rain Discussion: A few sprinkles are possible today, mainly in Kern County, but nothing measurable is expected. After today, the next chance of showers will arrive Saturday, mainly from Fresno County north. It’s possible this event could be completely dry as the dynamics this far south appear pretty weak.
The good news however, is that this system will open the door for a broad trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska to southern California through most of next week. Models give a different view on timing and possibility intensities, however the storm door will be open, giving a chance of showers on any given day from Monday through Friday. Models for next weekend into the following week also look encouraging.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 56%/13% Porterville, 75%/14%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 1.12, Parlier .90, Arvin 1.02, Orange Cove .91, Porterville .89, Delano .89. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 57, Delano 50.
Record Temperatures: 80/26. Average Temperatures: 65/41
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1823. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.8 +1.3 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -2.51 or 65% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.14
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.51 or 41% of average. Month to date .00 or -.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128, Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:25 am Sunset: 5:56 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:29
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 72 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 74 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 74 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 75 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 75 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 76 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 72 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 74 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1533 / 74 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.86 67 5.27 52 10.18 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.38 69 3.92 42 9.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.92 68 M M 8.66 12.50
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 8.51 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 65 M M 7.83 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 43 M M 7.07 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 41 M M 4.45 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 45 1.32 37 3.57 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.73 52 6.03 66 9.17 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 65 6.63 72 9.20 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 61 4.86 49 9.99 13.95
Next report: March 3/pm