March 5, 2021
Today will be the warmest day we shall see for probably the next ten days or so. We are currently on the backside of a ridge of upper level high pressure which is currently shifting eastward into the Great Basin. To our northwest is a low pressure system off the Washington coastline with a cold front extending southwestward to just off the northwest California coast. The southern flank of this system has weak dynamics. As it moves through along with its associated cold front , it will result in some possible sprinkles as far south as Fresno County but for now it appears nothing measurable will fall on the valley floor. A northwesterly push behind the front Saturday morning will be lifted by the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains, forming upslope clouds, especially over eastern Tulare and Kern Counties. These clouds may last all the way through to Sunday morning.
A narrow ridge of upper level high pressure will move in Saturday night through Sunday night, ensuring the dry weather continues through Monday night. On Monday, a cold low will be dropping southward and will be off the northwest California coast Monday afternoon and just to the west of the Bay Area by Wednesday morning. as this storm jogs slowly southward off shore, it will cause bands of showers to pinwheel into central California from time to time. With the coldest air aloft remaining off shore, the risk of thunderstorms will be reduced. This type of storm worries me somewhat. If models are even slightly off, the low could track southward too far off shore, reducing the chance of anything significant. Also on the negative side, models are now showing a sharp ridge of high pressure off shore, building northeastward to eastern Canada and the Pacific Friday through Sunday for dry weather. Earlier models had depicted a broad trough, allowing waves of low pressure to move through central California from time to time, however that does not appear to be the case now, which is disappointing.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today. Increasing clouds later tonight a small chance of sprinkles as far south as Fresno County later tonight and for a time Saturday morning. partly cloudy Saturday afternoon, but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday, but remaining partly cloudy into Sunday morning in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Mostly clear Sunday night and Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night. a chance of showers Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon. Periods of showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A chance of showers Thursday. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning.
Short Term:
| Madera 73/41/65/39/65 | Reedley 74/42/66/40/65 | Dinuba 73/40/64/38/64 |
| Porterville 76/40/65/38/65 | Lindsay 74/41/66/38/65 | Delano 74/42/66/40/64 |
| Bakersfield 77/45/65/42/64 | Taft 75/48/64/46/64 | Arvin 77/43/64/41/64 |
| Lamont 76/42/65/42/64 | Pixley 75/41/64/39/65 | Tulare 73/41/65/43/65 |
| Woodlake 74/41/65/40/40 | Hanford 75/42/66/40/65 | Orosi 73/41/65/37/64 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 38/64 |
Tuesday
PM showers 41/59 |
Wednesday
Periods of showers 41/58 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 38/62 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 39/65 |
Two Week Outlook: March 12 through March 18: This model shows a fairly strong indication of above average precipitation. The flow will be generally out of the northwest for somewhat below average temperatures.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be light and variable through this evening. They will then be out of the southeast at 5 to 12 MPH later tonight through early Saturday. Winds later Saturday morning through Saturday evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible. Winds Saturday night through Monday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and variable in nature.
Rain Discussion: Sprinkles are possible late tonight and Saturday morning from Fresno County north as a rapidly weakening cold front moves through. Otherwise expect dry weather through at least Monday night. the chance of showers will begin to increase Tuesday, especially during the afternoon. Expect on and off showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday afternoon. The chance of showers will continue through Thursday then taper off Thursday evening.
Rainfall amounts with this upcoming event will probably vary considerably due to the hit and miss precipitation pattern. If the players set up just right, as much as .50 could fall north of Kern County with locally move if isolated Thunderstorms occur. Dry weather will return later Thursday night and will continue through next weekend.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 56%/13% Porterville, 75%/14%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 1.12, Parlier .90, Arvin 1.02, Orange Cove .91, Porterville .89, Delano .89. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 57, Delano 50.
Record Temperatures: 80/26. Average Temperatures: 65/41
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1823. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.8 +1.3 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -2.51 or 65% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.14
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.51 or 41% of average. Month to date .00 or -.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128, Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:25 am Sunset: 5:56 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:29
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 72 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 74 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 74 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 75 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 75 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 76 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 72 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 74 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1533 / 74 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.86 67 5.27 52 10.18 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.38 69 3.92 42 9.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.92 68 M M 8.66 12.50
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 8.51 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 65 M M 7.83 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 43 M M 7.07 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 41 M M 4.45 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 45 1.32 37 3.57 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.73 52 6.03 66 9.17 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 65 6.63 72 9.20 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 61 4.86 49 9.99 13.95
Next report: March 5/pm