March 5, 2021
Just a warm, delightful afternoon out there with nothing but wall to wall sunshine out there. A southeasterly surface flow is blowing downslope off the Kern County mountains. The winds are confined to the higher elevations in Kern County. Sandberg just above the Ridge Route was reporting gusts of 35 MPH while Grapevine Peak was reporting gusts to 46 MPH. as these winds move downslope, they heat by compression, contributing to the warming.
A low pressure system off the Oregon coast is spreading rain along the northwest California coast down into Humboldt County. This trough of low pressure and its associated cold front will move through the valley late tonight and Saturday morning. latest models continue to indicate this is a non event. A few sprinkles are possible from Fresno County north but nothing measurable is anticipated on the valley floor.
A northwest push of air behind the cold front will no doubt form a lower level cloud deck against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada, which may last through Sunday morning in Kern County and possibly southeastern Tulare County.
The upcoming rain event for next week doesn’t look like it will be as strong as first though. A cold low both at the surface and aloft will drop southward out of the Gulf of Alaska. By Monday evening, the low will be centered just west of the northwest California coast. By Tuesday night, the center of circulation should be just west of the Bay Area. As the low tracks slowly down the coast, it will push bands of showers into central California. Greatest risk of precipitation will be late Tuesday night through late Wednesday evening. The chance of thunderstorms will be determined by the placement of the low as it tracks southward and just how close the pool of unstable air moves to the valley. It’s possible this pool of air could be close enough that, when combined with stronger daytime heating, could trigger a few thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening.
Models show this system weakening before moving inland through southern California Thursday night. a southwest to northeast upper high will fill in behind this storm and will build a ridge into the Pacific Northwest. This will ensure dry weather from Friday through next weekend and possibly into next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear through this evening. Increasing cloudiness later tonight with a chance of sprinkles from Fresno County north late tonight through Saturday morning. partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday but remaining mostly cloudy over Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night. a chance of showers Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon. Periods of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday night. a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A chance of showers Thursday morning, mainly south of Fresno County. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. mostly clear Friday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/65/38/66 | Reedley 42/66/38/65 | Dinuba 40/66/37/65 |
| Porterville 41/68/39/66 | Lindsay 40/68/37/66 | Delano 42/68/39/65 |
| Bakersfield 46/67/42/75 | Taft 45/64/46/64 | Arvin 43/68/41/64 |
| Lamont 43/68/40/65 | Pixley 41/67/38/65 | Tulare 40/66/37/64 |
| Woodlake 40/66/37/65 | Hanford 42/68/38/65 | Orosi 40/66/36/66 |
Winds Discussion: Winds tonight will be light and mainly out of the southeast. Winds Saturday will be out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds Saturday night through Monday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain Discussion: There is only a minimal chance of a few sprinkles from Fresno County north from late tonight through Saturday morning. measurable rain is not anticipated on the valley floor. Dry weather will prevail Saturday afternoon through Monday night. the chance of showers will begin to increase on Tuesday, especially later in the day, with periods of showers becoming likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night. I also want to keep a small chance of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening. Latest model runs show this system weakening as it moves through southern California Thursday night with dry weather Friday through the weekend and into the following week. Rainfall amounts from Tuesday through Thursday night should generally range between .10 and .25 in western Fresno and Kings Counties. In Madera County through eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties, generally between .25 and .50 can be expected. The valley portion of Kern County should expect between .10 and .25. because of the periodic shower conditions, rainfall amounts will vary widely. If thunderstorms develop, isolated pockets could pick up more than .50.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Next report: March 6/am