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Forecast

March 10, 2021/report

March 10, 2021

The first bands of precipitation have moved through the valley, running from west to east overnight.  The center of circulation of the cold core low is just northwest of the Bay Area at this  hour.  Rainfall amounts have generally ranged from as little as .05 to locally .25.  balloon soundings indicate a freezing level down to 3,800 feet above Oakland and 4,100 feet above Vandenburg AFB.  Sandburg in the Kern County mountains at 4,100 feet was at 32 degrees, so the snow level over the Kern County mountains is about 3,800 feet and about 3,000 feet along the southern Sierra Nevada.

 

The low will drift southeastward right over the valley later this afternoon and tonight, meaning  the pool of very cold air aloft will be destabilized even more this afternoon as the daytime heating effect gets underway.  This will trigger locally heavy showers and widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with localized heavy rain and small hail.

 

The low will slowly drift over Kern County later tonight.  the back side of this storm will still be over the southern half of the valley Thursday, so we’ll keep a chance of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday evening.

 

A temporary ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Friday through Saturday.  the next trough of low pressure to move out of the northeast Pacific will move through the northern half of California Sunday into early Monday.  Models do indicate there will be  a slight chance of light showers from Fresno County north.  They also indicate the pattern for next week will move storms into the Pacific Northwest and roughly through the northern third of California from time to time with dry weather over our region.

 

Forecast:  Numerous showers through late this evening.  A chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Showers later tonight.  widely scattered showers Thursday through Thursday evening with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.  Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning.  mostly clear Friday afternoon through Saturday night.  increasing cloudiness Sunday leading to a chance of light showers from Fresno county north Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.  Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 55/35/56/34/61 Reedley 56/36/57/36/62 Dinuba 56/34/57/34/61
Porterville 57/36/58/35/62 Lindsay 56/34/57/33/61 Delano 57/37/57/36’62
Bakersfield 58/41/57/39/61 Taft 55/39/54/43/56 Arvin 57/38/58/39/62
Lamont 56/39/57/38/62 Pixley 57/37/57/35/62 Tulare 56/35/57/34/60
Woodlake 57/35/57/34/61 Hanford 56/35/58/35/62 Orosi 56/35/57/34/61

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Partly cloudy

37/67

Sunday

Light showers, Fresno north

39/59

Monday

Partly cloudy

41/59

Tuesday

Mostly clear

36/61

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

37/65

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 16 through March 22: This model finds generally a weak zone of high pressure over California and off shore.  Temperatures can be expected to be close to seasonal values during this time frame with only a very low chance of precipitation.

 

March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest.  Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and  most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record.  Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.

 

Winds Discussion:  winds today will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, especially near showers and thunderstorms.  Winds late tonight through Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, especially near showers.  Winds Thursday night through Saturday will be generally light and variable.

 

Rain Discussion:  The following are storm totals as of 6:00am:  Bakersfield .06, Lamont .02, Delano .14, Porterville .07, Allensworth .14, Stratford .03, Kettleman Hills .15, Huron .09, Lemoore NAS .12, Visalia .20, Del Rey .14, Fresno .13, Clovis .27, Madera .11, Reedley .15.

 

We are in for a very active day as bands of showers will continue to rotate from west to east across the valley.  The daytime heating process will trigger more showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Of course, localized heavy rain and small hail will be the main challenge.  Showers will become more widely scattered after midnight with widely scattered showers and a chance of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.  This storm will finally move far enough to the southeast for a return to dry weather Friday.

 

Rainfall amounts from this point on will generally range from .25 to .50 with locally more where heavy showers and thunderstorms develop.  Heaviest precipitation will be over the eastern half of the valley north of Kern County.  Expect dry weather Friday through Saturday night.

 

The next chance of rain is a fairly minor one.  There will be a chance of light showers from Fresno County north Sunday into Monday.  After Monday, we’ll go with a dry pattern as the storm track will  move further north.

 

Frost Discussion: The freezing level above the south valley is now down to around 3,900 feet.  A good indication of the character of this air mass.

 

Most locations tonight will range in the mid 30s to the lower 40s, however there is a small risk of lower 30s in some of the frost pockets if skies clear for any length of time, which is doubtful.  Isolated pockets could dip down into the lower 30s Friday and Saturday mornings, as well.  Fortunately, it appears we’ll receive enough rain to soak the ground, which is always a plus.  By Sunday morning, the air mass will have modified enough to keep lows above freezing.  In and out cloud cover from Monday through the middle of next week will keep temperatures generally in the mid 30s to the lower 40s.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 77%/28%  Porterville, 79%/32%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 10%.  Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 10%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .89, Parlier .81, Arvin .92, Orange Cove .79, Porterville .85, Delano .86. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 58, Delano 50.

Record Temperatures: 82/31. Average Temperatures: 67/42

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1906.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 53.3 -0.7 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.11,  or -3.22 or 61% of average.  Month to Date: .00  or -.64

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  1.81, +or-  -2.93 or 38% of average.  Month to date  .00 or -.38

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128,  Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:15 am   Sunset: 6:03   Hours of Daylight:  11:45

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  60 /  38 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  62 /  38 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  61 /  42 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  63 /  37 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  63 /  39 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  63 /  44 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  62 /  39 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  63 /  39 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1549 /  63 /  42 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  61 /  42 /    T /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.14    7.06    66    5.43    51    10.73    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.38    65    3.92    40     9.77    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.92    64    0.00     0     9.24    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    1.19    13    0.00     0     9.08    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    5.11    61    0.00     0     8.33    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.05    40    0.00     0     7.57    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.81    38    0.00     0     4.74     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.61    43    1.32    35     3.72     5.18

SALINAS                       0.02    4.80    49    6.04    62     9.74    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.03    6.01    61    6.64    67     9.87    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.08    57    4.92    46    10.69    13.95

 

Next report: March 10/pm