March 11, 2021
Satellite imagery this afternoon looks like a thick bowl of clam chowder with heavy cloud cover over all of central California. Those clouds are inhibiting the daytime heating process, thus so far the shower activity is widely scattered over the valley floor with numerous showers up and down the Sierra Nevada. Showers over the foothills of the Sierra are moving towards the valley floor as the flow aloft is now out of the northeast. The best chance of showers through the evening hours will be south of Fresno County. It’s difficult to pick out the cold core low’s center of circulation, but it appears to be near the Channel Islands and chugging very slowly eastward.
As the low continues on its journey through southern California, any shower activity will be confined to the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains later tonight. by Friday evening, the center of this storm will have moved to a position near southwest Arizona then over the Four Corners area by Saturday evening. Weak upper level high pressure will fill in from the west, providing a dry weekend until Sunday evening. That is when a weak trough of low pressure will swing through the Pacific Northwest with the weaker portion of the storm moving through northern and central California. There will be a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County north Sunday night and Monday. If precipitation does occur, generally less than .10 can be anticipated.
A flat zone of upper level high pressure will fill in behind for a prolonged period of dry weather. A weak flow aloft out of the west/northwest will prevail, which will keep temperatures just about at normal for much of next week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday morning. partly cloudy Friday afternoon. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday leading to a chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday morning, mainly from Fresno County north. Mostly to partly cloudy Monday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 37/61/35 | Reedley 38/62/34/65 | Dinuba 34/61/33/65 |
| Porterville 39.61/34/66 | Lindsay 37/61/33/65 | Delano 39/62/35/67 |
| Bakersfield 40/60/39/66 | Taft 43/58/43/63 | Arvin 40/62/39/67 |
| Lamont 39/61/37/67 | Pixley 38/62/34/66 | Tulare 35/60/33/64 |
| Woodlake 36/61/34/66 | Hanford 37/62/35/67 | Orosi 37/61/33/65 |
Winds Discussion: Winds through Sunday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and generally less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours, mainly south of Fresno County. Many locations may very well pick up no additional rain from this event. Expect dry weather from tonight through most of Sunday. There is a chance of light showers spreading as far south as Fresno County with a slight chance further south Sunday night through Monday morning. this system is much weaker and what locations do pick up precipitation will generally pick up no more than a tenth of an inch. If models are correct, Monday afternoon will be dry as will the remainder of next week.
Frost Discussion: The vast majority of locations tonight and tomorrow night will chill down to the 33 to 39 degree range with only a small chance of those typical frost pockets falling into the lower 30s for short durations. After Saturday morning, expect above freezing conditions to prevail.
Next report: March 12/am