March 12, 2021
The cold core low has now moved to a position over northwest Arizona. The wrap around cloud deck from this storm is bumping up against the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains, putting the southern San Joaquin Valley in a reverse rain shadow. The airmass remains quite cold with temperatures at 1:00 pm only in the 50s, even where there is bright sunshine. A warming trend will begin Saturday as the low continues its eastward journey, allowing a weak ridge of upper level high pressure to temporarily move in from the west and ensuring dry weather through the weekend.
Most of the short term models now show the next system moving into northern California Sunday night, pushing through central California Monday. The chance of light showers on Monday now appears reasonably high, all the way southward to Kern county. Rainfall amounts from this event now appear to be quite low. Another pool of cold air will move through. By midweek, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will finally push in from the west with westerly winds aloft. Temperatures by that time will have risen back to seasonal averages and may even be marginally above average by next weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies tonight through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. Light showers likely Monday, mainly north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/65/37/67 | Reedley 33/66/37/67 | Dinuba 32/66/37/67 |
| Porterville 32/68/37/68 | Lindsay 31/66/36/67 | Delano 32/67/37/68 |
| Bakersfield 40/66/42/68 | Taft 43/65/45/67 | Arvin 35/66/40/68 |
| Lamont 34/67/37/68 | Pixley 32/67/37/68 | Tulare 31/65/36/67 |
| Woodlake 32/66/37/67 | Hanford 33/68/37/67 | Orosi 32/67/37/68 |
Winds Discussion: Winds through Monday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and generally less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will prevail through Sunday and probably most of Sunday night. the chance of light showers appears relatively high now, north of Kern County, on Monday into Monday evening. Showers will end Monday night. a prolonged period of dry weather will begin Tuesday, lasting indefinitely. No real chance of rain shows up until at least next weekend and probably well into the following week.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures as of 1:00pm are only in the upper 50s, even in areas enjoying full sunshine. Dew points are generally in the mid to upper 30s. even though the air mass will be rapidly modifying, widespread low to mid 30s are expected tonight with most locations north of Kern County in the 31 to 36 degree range. Low lying frost pockets have the potential of dropping to 28 to 30 for short durations, but only under clear skies and with no wind. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5 degrees warmer Sunday morning. above freezing temperatures can be expected Monday. Another round of lower 30s will be possible Tuesday morning if skies clear. The rest of next week will be above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
39 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: March 13/am