March 14, 2021
A very fast moving and very cold low is currently stretched from the parent low over the Yukon Territory of Canada with a trough extending southward to off the northern California coast. The southern flank of the trough will pinch off, forming a very cold low over northern California tonight. it will move through central California Monday and Monday night. by Monday afternoon, the low will be centered in extreme southern Nevada with the jet stream flanked from north/northwest to south/southeast above central California. That, combined with a strong 15 millibar difference in pressure between northern California and the Desert Southwest will set the stage for high winds over the higher elevations and will mix down very cold air to the valley floor. This will set the stage for a spring frost in some areas Tuesday morning. this is discussed below in the frost section.
Showers will rapidly spread down the valley tonight into Monday morning as a fast moving cold front slides through. The showers will decrease Monday afternoon. The forecast for Monday night will be dealing with upslope clouds banking up against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada, especially in Tulare County. The low will move quickly into the Desert Southwest Tuesday, allowing a flat zone of upper level high pressure to build in from the west, leading to significant warming Wednesday.
The next trough of low pressure will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska into California about Friday or Friday night. a chance of light showers is being added to the forecast. The primary question is whether the main dynamics of this storm move into the Great Basin or further west into California. At the very least, another round of breezy weather can be expected with cooler temperatures over the weekend. Models also indicate the possibility of another low racing southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Sunday and Monday of next week.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Showers tonight and Monday morning. a chance of showers for a time Monday afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning. becoming mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Thursday night. increasing cloudiness Friday. A chance of showers Friday night and Saturday. partly cloudy Saturday night. a slight chance of showers Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/41/64/32/60 | Reedley 65/42/61/32/59 | Dinuba 64/40/61/31/60 |
| Porterville 65/42/61/31/58 | Lindsay 65/41/60/30/59 | Delano 65/43/61/32/61 |
| Bakersfield 65/43/55/38/59 | Taft 64/43/55/36/59 | Arvin 66/43/53/33/58 |
| Lamont 66/42/55/33/58 | Pixley 64/42/61/32/61 | Tulare 64/40/61/30/58 |
| Woodlake 64/41/60/31/58 | Hanford 65/41/60/32/58 | Orosi 65/41/59/31/59 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 36/66 |
Thursdsay
Mostly clear 40/68 |
Friday
Pm showers possible 42/71 |
Saturday
Am showers possible 40/62 |
Sunday
Mostly cloudy’ 39/66 |
Two Week Outlook: March 20 through March 26: This model finds generally a weak zone of high pressure over California and off shore. Temperatures can be expected to be marginally above average during this time frame with only a very low chance of precipitation.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH this morning, becoming out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH this afternoon and evening. Winds Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. Gusts to near 30 MPH are possible, mainly along the far west side. Gusts to 25 MPH are possible from Fresno County north. Winds will decrease Monday night with light and variable winds Tuesday through Wednesday.
Rain Discussion: Showers will spread down the valley tonight, continuing Monday morning. short term models are showing this system to be more vigorous than previously thought. As much as .33 is possible along the east side of the valley north of Kern County. The west side of the valley will be in a rain shadow with generally .10 to .20 being recorded. About that same amount is also possible over the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will return by Monday evening, continuing through at least Friday morning. Models vary on the track of another cold low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska during the late part of the work week and into the coming weekend. A chance of showers seems appropriate for Friday afternoon into early Saturday and possibly another next Sunday night and Monday.
Frost Discussion: The latest high resolution models show a very cold pocket of air moving through central California Monday and Monday night. freezing levels will drop to near 3000 feet and snow will be possible down to 4,000 feet in the surrounding mountains. This raises the chance of a spring frost Tuesday morning. two factors will play into this forecast. The first is cloud cover as a strong north/northwest push of air moves down the valley, forming upslope clouds against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada, especially in Kern County. However, there will be a tremendous amount of wind energy aloft with this storm, which could mix out a lot of the cloud cover by sunrise Tuesday. Also, towards the center and west side of the valley, we may see winds Monday night strong enough to help keep temperatures up in those regions. The bottom line, however, is that this is an unusually cold system for this late in the season, giving a reasonable chance of a spring frost event early Tuesday morning where skies clear and winds die off. In river bottom and similar low spots, lows down to 27 to 28 degrees cannot be ruled out with widespread low to mid 30s.
Models do show rapid modification of the atmosphere Tuesday, allowing most locations to be above freezing Wednesday morning, though lower 30s will be possible in the coldest locations. Expect above freezing conditions Thursday and beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 89%/33% Porterville, 94%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .76, Parlier .74, Arvin .85, Orange Cove .65, Porterville .72, Delano .75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 55, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 57, Delano 50.
Record Temperatures: 88/29. Average Temperatures: 67/43
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1965. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.3 -2.0 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.54, or -3.09 or 64% of average. Month to Date: .43 or -.51
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.10, +or- -2.82 or 43% of average. Month to date .29 or -.27
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128, Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:09 am Sunset: 7:07 Hours of Daylight: 11:55
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 66 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 69 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 44 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 54 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1548 / 67 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.50 68 5.43 49 11.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.72 67 3.92 39 10.07 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.41 67 0.00 0 9.53 12.50
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 9.33 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.54 64 0.00 0 8.63 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.43 44 0.00 0 7.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.10 43 0.00 0 4.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 43 1.53 40 3.80 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.38 53 6.12 61 10.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.38 62 7.29 71 10.26 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.74 61 5.87 53 11.08 13.95
Next report: March 14/pm