March 15, 2021
Welcome back to January. The freezing level taken over Oakland this morning is as low as I’ve seen it all winter. The balloon sounding pegged the level at just 2,900 feet. Over Vandenberg AFB, the freezing level was dropping rapidly with a current level of 4,400 feet. Most models underestimated the strength of this storm. A number of locations north of a Visalia/Hanford line already have precipitation totals near ½ inch. The center of the cold core low is currently over the lower Sacramento Valley while the surface cold front is now moving through Kern County.
Widespread precipitation is currently occurring over the eastern and southern San Joaquin Valley. This rain will taper off into showers later this morning. as that very cold pool of unstable air moves overhead this afternoon, convective showers will break out with isolated thunderstorms. Small hail will be likely in any thunderstorm that develops. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see ice mixing down in some of the heavier showers.
Strong differences in surface pressure will begin later today between northern California and southern Nevada. This will generate strong, gusty winds over the mountain areas and along the west side of the San Joaquin Valley. This flow of air will be lifted by the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada, resulting in upslope clouds over the Kern County portion of the valley tonight and Tuesday morning, possibly arcing northward into southern Tulare County.
Overnight low temperatures are a concern tonight in areas where skies clear and winds die off. This is discussed in the frost section below.
Temperatures this afternoon will only struggle into the lower 50s. As a weather footnote, this is the earliest date in history where Fresno recorded a 90 degree reading. That occurred in 2015.
Weak upper level high pressure will fill in from the west Tuesday through Thursday. By later tonight, the low will be centered over southern Nevada then will race into the Four Corners region Tuesday.
The next chance of precipitation will arrive Thursday night and Friday as a trough of low pressure moves out of the Gulf of Alaska. The southern portion will swing inland through southern California. This trough is projected to result in unsettled weather through the weekend with most of the precipitation being confined to the mountain areas. Unlike the current system, the coldest air will remain well to our north.
Forecast: Rain, tapering off this morning. scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy tonight but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County through Tuesday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night. a chance of showers Friday and Friday night. variable cloudiness Friday night through Monday with a slight chance of showers.
Short Term:
| Madera 53/31/59/32/65 | Reedley 53/31/60//32/66 | Dinuba 52/31/59/31/65 |
| Porterville 53/31/59/32/66 | Lindsay 53/30/59/31/65 | Delano 53/31/60/31/67 |
| Bakersfield 52/38/59/39/68 | Taft 50/33/58/42/67 | Arvin 51/34/60/33/68 |
| Lamont 52/33/59/33/68 | Pixley 53/31/60/32/66 | Tulare 53/30/59/31/64 |
| Woodlake 53/31/59/31/65 | Hanford 53/31/60/32/66 | Orosi 53/31/59/31/64 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 41/70 |
Friday
Chance of showers 45/59 |
Saturday
Variable clouds 40/64 |
Sunday
Variable clouds 39/64 |
Monday
Variable clouds 40/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 22 through March 28: Don’t expect much in the way of precipitation during this time frame. Models show a generally weak zone of high pressure over California and off shore. Temperatures will likely be marginally above average.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through this evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. Local gusts to 30 MPH will be possible, mainly in western Fresno County southward to northwest Kern County. Winds tonight will taper off and become light to near calm after midnight. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH late mornings and afternoons and less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The following are rainfall amounts as of 6:00 this morning: Bakersfield .10, Lamont .02, Mettler .04, Buttonwillow .04, Delano .10, Porterville .38, Lemoore 42, Hanford .37, Visalia .41, Fresno .42, Parlier .26, Del Rey .37, and Stratford .10,
The rain will taper off into scattered showers this morning. convective showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. Small hail will definitely be an issue where thunderstorms break out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see ice mixed in with heavier showers.
Rainfall amounts will vary widely from this point on, from a few hundredths to as much as a half inch. Dry weather will return tonight, continuing through Thursday. We’ll be under a broad trough of low pressure Friday through Monday. There will be a chance of showers Friday with a slight chance Saturday through Monday, mainly in the mountain areas.
Frost Discussion: Sometimes quirky things happen in the world of weather. The freezing level above us is down to 2,900 feet, which is the lowest of the entire winter. This means tonight could be a challenge in some areas. Currently, I’m banking on a heavy amount of upslope clouds against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada, hopefully generating enough cloud cover to keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s in Kern County and much of Tulare County. Be advised, however, that if parameters are not favorable tonight, low lying river bottom and other frost pockets seeing clear skies and calm winds could drop down to 27 to 28 degrees with most flatland locations ranging from 29 to 34. Similar conditions can be expected for Wednesday morning.
Rapid modification of the air mass will occur Wednesday and Thursday for above freezing conditions for the remainder of the week.
The forecast low temperatures for tonight, are for ideal frost conditions. There is a good chance temperatures will come in warmer due to cloud cover, etc. There’s actually a higher risk of more locations being below freezing Wednesday morning as generally clear skies are anticipated.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
mcFarland
31 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 94%/45% Porterville, 91%/51%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .76, Parlier .76, Arvin .87, Orange Cove .66, Porterville .73, Delano .78. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 55, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 57, Delano 50.
Record Temperatures: 91/31. Average Temperatures: 67/43
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1978. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.3 -2.1 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.54, or -3.16 or 64% of average. Month to Date: .43 or -.58
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.10, +or- -2.86 or 43% of average. Month to date .29 or -.31
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128, Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:08 am Sunset: 7:07 Hours of Daylight: 11:58
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 59 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 64 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 64 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 63 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 63 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 62 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.50 67 5.85 53 11.12 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.72 66 3.97 39 10.14 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.41 67 M M 9.60 12.50
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 9.39 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.54 64 M M 8.70 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.43 44 M M 7.83 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.10 42 M M 4.96 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 43 1.53 40 3.81 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.38 53 6.23 61 10.15 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.38 62 7.31 71 10.36 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.74 60 5.87 53 11.18 13.95
Next report: March 15/pm