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Forecast

March 16, 2021/report

March 16, 2021

The cold core low has raced southeastward and is now centered in western Arizona and will reach the Four Corners region by this evening.  The northwest push of air behind the low continues to generate upslope clouds against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada in Tulare County.  This has done a magnificent job in keeping conditions above freezing.  These clouds will slowly mix out during the morning and afternoon hours with abundant sunshine later today.  A warming trend will ensue, however, widespread low to mdi 30s are anticipated again tonight before more significant warming begins Wednesday.

 

Weak high pressure is now building in from the west behind yesterday’s storm.  This will put us under a northwesterly flow aloft.  That flow will become westerly Wednesday, pumping in warmer air aloft.  A low pressure system will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska to a position off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night.  this system will drop a weak trough into northern and central California Thursday night and Friday.  Light showers will spread over northern California with a chance of scattered light showers making it into the valley later Thursday night and Friday morning, mainly along and  just ahead of a cold front.

 

Behind this system will be a weak trough of low pressure which will remain over California through Sunday.  There will be a chance of showers over the higher elevations nof the  Sierra Nevada Friday  night through Sunday, but the valley will remain dry.  A cooling trend will begin Friday with another round of below average temperatures over the weekend, however the coldest air with this system will be well north so no subfreezing temperatures are anticipated.

 

Beginning Monday, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin to shift eastward into the western US.  We will be on the eastern flank of the high Monday and underneath the high Wednesday through Friday for mostly clear  skies and warmer weather.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties this morning.  mostly clear elsewhere.  Mostly clear this afternoon through Thursday morning.  increasing cloudiness late Thursday afternoon.  A small chance of scattered light showers Thursday night and Friday morning, mainly from Fresno County north.  Mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 33/61/66/40/70 Reedley 61/33/67/41/72 Dinuba 60/32/66/40/72
Porterville 60/32/67/41/72 Lindsay 61/31/66/40/72 Delano 61/33/67/41/73
Bakersfield 60/40/68/46/74 Taft 58/41/65/48/73 Arvin 59/36/68/43/74
Lamont 60/34/67/44/74 Pixley 61/33/67/41/72 Tulare 60/32/67/40/71
Woodlake 61/32/67/41/72 Hanford 60/33/67//42/71 Orosi 60/32/67/40/72

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly cloudy

47/65

Saturday

Partly cloudy

41/61

Sunday

Partly cloudy

37/65

Monday

Mostly clear

41/67

Tuesday

Mostly clear

41/72

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 22 through March 28: Don’t expect much in the way of precipitation during this time frame.  Models show a generally weak zone of high pressure over California and off shore.  Temperatures will likely be marginally above average.

 

March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest.  Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and  most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record.  Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than  12 MPH and variable in nature.  Winds during the night and  morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.  Winds late Thursday night and Friday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.

 

Rain Discussion:  The only chance of rain this week will be Thursday night and Friday as a weakening cold front moves down the valley.  The best chance of anything measurable will be from Fresno County north.  If measurable rain does occur, less than .10 can  be anticipated. Friday afternoon and on through most of next week will be dry.

 

Frost Discussion: Upslope clouds over Kern and eastern Tulare Counties have efficiently maintained above freezing conditions in those areas.  Widespread low to mid 30s cover the western and central portions of the valley.

 

Widespread low to mid 30s can be expected tonight.  the advantage of cloud cover we have in some areas this morning will not be available tonight.  most locations will range from 30 to 36 with a chance of isolated frost pockets dropping down to 28 to 29 for short durations.

 

Tonight will be the last chance of frost for more than likely the next week or so.  We may see some mid to upper 30s Sunday morning as a cooler air mass again spreads over central California.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

32

mcFarland

33

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

33

Belridge

31

Delano

33

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

33

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

29

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

33

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

31

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

31

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s: Low to mid 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/51%  Porterville, 91%/51%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .68, Parlier .69, Arvin .78, Orange Cove .60, Porterville .67, Delano .72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 55, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 56, Delano 50.

Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 68/43

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1978.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.2 -2.1 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.02  or -2.75 or 69% of average.  Month to Date: .91  or -.17

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  2.32, +or-  -2.68 or 45% of average.  Month to date  .51 or -.13

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128,  Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 7:06 am   Sunset: 7:08   Hours of Daylight:  12:01

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  51 /  39 / 0.39 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  53 /  41 / 0.11 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  54 /  42 / 0.48 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  54 /  42 / 0.42 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  57 /  43 / 0.19 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  54 /  43 / 0.14 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  54 /  41 / 0.51 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  50 /  42 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  54 /  41 / 0.27 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1649 /  49 /  43 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  53 /  42 / 0.01 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.01    7.60    68    6.53    58    11.19    14.06

MODESTO                       0.06    6.95    68    4.53    44    10.21    13.11

MERCED                        0.30    6.80    70       M     M     9.66    12.50

MADERA                        0.11       M     M       M     M     9.44    12.02

FRESNO                        0.48    6.02    69       M     M     8.77    11.50

HANFORD                       0.42    3.85    49       M     M     7.88    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.14    2.24    45       M     M     5.00     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.62    42    1.53    40     3.83     5.18

SALINAS                          T    5.50    54    6.60    65    10.23    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.14    6.52    62    7.93    76    10.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.07    6.82    61    6.20    55    11.27    13.95

Next report: March 16/pm