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Forecast

March 17, 2021/report

March 17, 2021

Weak upper level high pressure is currently building in from the eastern Pacific but will only control our weather for another 30 hours or so.  Much warmer air has already moved in above the valley floor.  The freezing level above Oakland has jumped up to 8,700 feet as the cold core low moves into the Midwestern US.

 

In the meantime, a low center in the Gulf of Alaska is dropping southward and will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest by this evening, eventually dropping a trough of low pressure into northern and central California Thursday night and Friday.  Models overnight are somewhat more aggressive on this system.  It now appears light showers will spread into the south valley, as well, even though amounts there will be pretty meager.  Some decent late season snow will accumulate over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

 

A southwesterly flow is also developing underneath that low which will drive temperatures above average beginning today and continuing through Thursday.  A surface cold front will move down the valley late Thursday night  and Friday morning with light showers along and ahead of the front.  A cooler air mass will overspread central California, but nothing to compare to the previous system.  Even so, temperatures will drop back to several degrees below average over the weekend.  A weak trough of low pressure will linger over California over the weekend which will add enough instability for a chance of showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, mainly during the afternoon and evening.  A large ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin to shift inland Monday for a prolonged period of dry weather which should last through the work week.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear today.  Partly cloudy tonight.  increasing cloudiness Thursday.  Light showers likely Thursday night and Friday morning, mainly north of Kern County.  Mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.  partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday.  Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 67/41/72/45/65 Reedley 68/42/72/47/66 Dinuba 67/42/70/47/65
Porterville 69/42/71/47/66 Lindsay 68/41/70/46/67 Delano 69/44/72/48/66
Bakersfield 70/48/73/52/68 Taft 67/51/71/55/67 Arvin 70/45//73/45/68
Lamont 71/44/72/48/68 Pixley 68/43/71/41/65 Tulare 67/42/71/47/65
Woodlake 67/41/71/46/65 Hanford 68/43/71/48/65 Orosi 67/41/71/46/64

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Partly cloudy

42/65

Sunday

Partly cloudy

40/64

Monday

Mostly clear

40/68

Tuesday

Mostly clear

39/67

Wednesday

Mostly clear

41/69

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 24 through March 30: Don’t expect much in the way of precipitation during this time frame.  Models show a generally weak zone of high pressure over California and off shore.  Temperatures will likely be marginally above average.

 

March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest.  Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and  most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record.  Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than  12 MPH and variable in nature.  Winds during the night and  morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.  Winds late Thursday night and Friday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds Friday night and Saturday will be variable to 15 MPH.

 

Rain Discussion:  Overnight models are a bit more aggressive on a low pressure system and an associated frontal system which will move through Thursday night and Friday morning.  there is a reasonable chance of light showers spreading all the way down the valley.  Rainfall amounts south of Fresno County should only tally up to a few hundredths to as much as .10.  Perhaps a tenth or two in Fresno and Madera Counties.  Dry weather will return by Friday evening.  If models are correct, dry weather will hold through the weekend and at least through the middle of next week.

 

Frost Discussion: Expect above freezing conditions for the next seven to ten days, at least.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s: Low to mid 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/51%  Porterville, 91%/51%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .68, Parlier .69, Arvin .78, Orange Cove .60, Porterville .67, Delano .72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 55, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 56, Delano 50.

Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 68/43

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1978.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.2 -2.1 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.02  or -2.75 or 69% of average.  Month to Date: .91  or -.17

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  2.32, +or-  -2.68 or 45% of average.  Month to date  .51 or -.13

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128,  Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 7:06 am   Sunset: 7:08   Hours of Daylight:  12:01

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  51 /  39 / 0.39 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  53 /  41 / 0.11 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  54 /  42 / 0.48 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  54 /  42 / 0.42 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  57 /  43 / 0.19 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  54 /  43 / 0.14 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  54 /  41 / 0.51 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  50 /  42 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  54 /  41 / 0.27 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1649 /  49 /  43 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  53 /  42 / 0.01 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.01    7.60    68    6.53    58    11.19    14.06

MODESTO                       0.06    6.95    68    4.53    44    10.21    13.11

MERCED                        0.30    6.80    70       M     M     9.66    12.50

MADERA                        0.11       M     M       M     M     9.44    12.02

FRESNO                        0.48    6.02    69       M     M     8.77    11.50

HANFORD                       0.42    3.85    49       M     M     7.88    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.14    2.24    45       M     M     5.00     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.62    42    1.53    40     3.83     5.18

SALINAS                          T    5.50    54    6.60    65    10.23    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.14    6.52    62    7.93    76    10.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.07    6.82    61    6.20    55    11.27    13.95

Next report: March 17/pm