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Forecast

March 20, 2021/report

March 20, 2021

Last night  turned out to be a real soaker.  A secondary ripple of low pressure moved across the southern half of the valley overnight, enhancing the precipitation. Rainfall amounts from Fresno County southward were more than twice as much as the northern half of the valley. As of the time of this writing, the precipitation had moved into the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains.

 

A weak trough will  linger over central California through Sunday, keeping a chance of showers over the higher elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada.  However, today will be the first day of a prolonged period of dry weather.

 

Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build eastward into Oregon and northern California Sunday night, covering all of California by Monday.  California will be on the eastern rim of the high, putting us under a northwest flow aloft.  Two inside sliders will dive into the Great Basin this coming week.  A weak one will slide through Tuesday and a stronger system Thursday through Friday.  That storm will give a chance of showers to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.  Over the weekend, a strong high will build northeastward into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest while a low develops over the Desert Southwest, creating an off shore flow both at the surface and aloft, driving temperatures  well above average next weekend and beyond.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy today.  Mostly clear tonight with the exception of Kern County and eastern Tulare County which will remain partly cloudy into Sunday morning.  mostly clear skies Sunday afternoon through Wednesday night.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 63/36/65/37/69 Reedley 64/37/66/38/68 Dinuba 62/36/65/37/68
Porterville 63/37/66/37/70 Lindsay 63/35/65/37/65 Delano 62/37/66/38/68
Bakersfield 62/40/65/43/68 Taft 61/40/64/46/66 Arvin 62/42/64/40/69
Lamont 62/40/64/42/68 Pixley 62/37/65/38/69 Tulare 61/35/66/36/67
Woodlake 63/36/66/37/68 Hanford 63/37/65/39/69 Orosi 62/35/65/36/67

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

40/68

Wednesday

Mostly clear

40/72

Thursday

Partly cloudy

42/74

Friday

Partly cloudy

41/69

Saturday

Mostly clear

41/73

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 26 through April 1: Don’t expect much in the way of precipitation during this time frame.  Models show a generally weak zone of high pressure over California and off shore.  Temperatures will likely be marginally above average.

 

April: This model shows a fairly persistent ridge of upper level high pressure dominating most of the western US for much of the month of April.  Temperatures will generally range above average with below average precipitation as we begin the dry season.

 

April, May, June: You could actually carbon copy the 30 day outlook as the parameters of this model indicate drier than average conditions.  However, since this is the beginning of the dry season, it’s a rather moot point.  Temperatures will generally range above average.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds today will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible, diminishing this evening.  Winds tonight through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and variable.

 

Rain Discussion:  The following are rainfall amounts as of 6:00am:  Bakersfield .25, Lamont .14, Arvin .47, Mettler .49, Visalia .29, Taft .14, Delano .39, Porterville .39, Tulare .46, Stratford .31, Kettleman Hills .38, Hanford .27, Lemoore .42, Huron .33, Del Rey .39, Fresno .43, and Avenal .34.

 

As you can see, these rainfall amounts show that this storm outperformed what was considered to be its potential.  Showers have moved into the mountain areas.  The remainder of the day will be dry.  Even though there are differences of opinion on modeling information after Wednesday, it appears a prolonged period of dry weather will last at least a week and quite possibly considerably longer.

 

Frost Discussion: Expect above freezing conditions for the next seven to ten days, at least.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Low to mid 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/45%  Porterville, 96%/47%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .81, Parlier .78, Arvin .91, Orange Cove .74, Porterville .83, Delano .88. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 56, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 57, Delano 52.

Record Temperatures: 89/33. Average Temperatures: 68/43

Heating Degree Days This Season: 2038.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.4, -2.4 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.41  or -2.63 or 69% of average.  Month to Date: 1.30  or -.07

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  2.44, +or-  -2.73 or 45% of average.  Month to date  .63 or -.18

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128,  Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 7:00 am   Sunset: 7:12   Hours of Daylight:  12:09

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  59 /  53 / 0.12 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  63 /  51 / 0.07 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  67 /  56 / 0.24 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  70 /  53 / 0.03 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  76 /  55 / 0.21 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  77 /  53 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  72 /  52 /    T /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1637 /  65 /  54 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  75 /  50 /    T /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1657 /  78 /  46 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  57 /  50 / 0.13 /

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.04    7.84    68    7.05    61    11.47    14.06

MODESTO                       0.07    7.12    68    5.35    51    10.48    13.11

MERCED                        0.12    6.94    70    0.00     0     9.90    12.50

MADERA                        0.07       M     M    0.00     0     9.62    12.02

FRESNO                        0.24    6.26    69    0.00     0     9.04    11.50

HANFORD                       0.03    3.89    48    0.00     0     8.06    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.32    45    0.00     0     5.17     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.62    42    1.73    44     3.89     5.18

SALINAS                       0.03    5.70    54    7.15    68    10.53    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.07    6.60    61    8.80    82    10.78    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.82    59    7.58    65    11.61    13.95

 

Next report: March 20/pm