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Forecast

March 23, 2021/report

March 23, 2021

A rather energized low pressure system has dropped through the Great Basin and is now centered over northwest Arizona.  A large high at the upper levels of the atmosphere covers the eastern Pacific Ocean off shore, resulting in a strong northerly flow aloft.  In fact, the jet stream will be sweeping right over central California at over 130 MPH.  in the meantime, strong differences in pressure at the surface are increasing. The latest altimeter reading at Medford, Oregon is 30.36 inches of mercury.  At Las Vegas, the reading is 29.74.  the combination of the jet stream and the surface pressure gradient will generate gusty winds down the west side of the valley this afternoon and evening.  The flow will actually become off shore tonight, possibly resulting in some Mono winds in the canyons along the Sierra Nevada from Kings Canyon north.  Light showers will also be possible over the high Sierra and even the Kern County mountains where upsloping will generate some light precipitation along the valley facing slopes.

 

Two more systems will dive into the Great Basin.  The next one will move in on Wednesday with a stronger one Thursday and Friday.  The latter will generate another chance of showers over the high Sierra with partly cloudy skies over the valley floor.

 

Beginning Friday night, that large upper high over the eastern Pacific will begin to shift eastward, covering the western 1/3 of the US.  This will result in significant warming over the weekend with temperatures nearing 80 on Sunday and possibly even into the lower 80s Monday and Tuesday of next week.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning in Kern and Tulare counties.  Mostly clear to partly cloudy elsewhere.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this afternoon through Friday.  Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 65/37/70/39/69 Reedley 67/37/71/39/68 Dinuba 67/35/70//38/70
Porterville 68/37/70/39/69 Lindsay 67/35/70/38/68 Delano 65/38/70/39/68
Bakersfield 63/41/70/46/68 Taft 63/43/70/45/69 Arvin 62/41/70/44/68
Lamont 63/41/70/44/69 Pixley 65/37/70/40/68 Tulare 65/35/69/40/69
Woodlake 65/36/71/39/67 Hanford 66/37/70/40/69 Orosi 66/35/71/39/69

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

40/70

Saturday

Mostly clear

41/74

Sunday

Mostly clear

42/80

Monday

Mostly clear

47/81

Tuesday

Mostly clear

47/82

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 30 through April 5: Don’t expect much in the way of precipitation during this time frame.  Models show a generally weak zone of high pressure over California and off shore.  Temperatures will likely be marginally above average.

 

April: This model shows a fairly persistent ridge of upper level high pressure dominating most of the western US for much of the month of April.  Temperatures will generally range above average with below average precipitation as we begin the dry season.

 

April, May, June: You could actually carbon copy the 30 day outlook as the parameters of this model indicate drier than average conditions.  However, since this is the beginning of the dry season, it’s a rather moot point.  Temperatures will generally range above average.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds along the east side of the valley north of Kern County will be variable to 15 MPH through tonight.  Winds this afternoon and tonight along the west side will be out of the north to northwest at 15 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds Wednesday will be variable to 15 MPH and will again be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts Wednesday night through Thursday.  Winds Thursday night and Friday will be light and variable.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to ten days, at least.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight.  a few river bottom and other low lying frost pockets could dip down to 32 to 35 but no frost is expected.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 91%/26%  Porterville, 96%/34%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .97, Parlier .91, Arvin 1.00, Orange Cove .86, Porterville .95, Delano .99. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 57, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 58, Delano 53.

Record Temperatures: 85/34. Average Temperatures: 69/43

Heating Degree Days This Season: 2074.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.4, -2.5 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.44  or -2.78 or 70% of average.  Month to Date: 1.33  or -.20

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  2.58, +or-  -2.69 or 49% of average.  Month to date  .77 or -.14

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128,  Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:56 am   Sunset: 7:15  Hours of Daylight:  12:16

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  65 /  35 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  66 /  38 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  68 /  44 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  70 /  37 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  71 /  35 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  68 /  43 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  67 /  41 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  68 /  42 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1651 /  69 /  46 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  66 /  46 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.84    67    7.05    61    11.65    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    7.12    67    5.46    51    10.65    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    6.97    69    0.00     0    10.05    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    0.00     0     9.73    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.44    70    0.00     0     9.22    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.13    51    0.00     0     8.16    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.58    49    0.00     0     5.27     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.62    41    1.73    44     3.93     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.70    53    7.61    71    10.73    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.73    61    9.58    87    10.98    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.86    58    8.44    71    11.83    13.95

 

Next report: March 23/pm