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Forecast

May 5, 2021/report

May 5, 2021

Every ten years, NOAA puts out new average temperatures for the US.  The newest averages are generally from .5 to 1 degree warmer in the San Joaquin Valley.  For you global warming fans, keep in mind that over the past ten years, we have been generally under a long term drought situation, resulting in much less fog during the winter months.  There has also been rapid population growth throughout the valley, increasing the heat island effect.  The biggest jump in temperatures is about 1 degree in Fresno and, to a lesser extent, Kern Counties where the biggest populations reside.  Across the US, the average temperature over the past 30 years rose by about .5 of a degree.  Portions of the northern Midwest were actually a tad cooler.

 

Speaking of heat, today will be the hottest we will see for a while.  Temperatures this morning are running from 4 to 8 degrees higher than 24 hours ago.  Hottest locations on the valley floor this afternoon will tease with the century mark.

 

Upper level high pressure is almost directly above California this morning.  the latest sounding at Monterey puts the marine layer’s depth at 1,200 feet.  As of 6:00am, the winds at Travis AFB in the Delta were only 6 MPH, so no sea breeze is moving inland.

 

This will begin to change Thursday as a trough of low pressure will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to just off the northern California coast.  The trough will move inland Thursday night and Friday.  Initially, a surge of marine air will move through the Delta then spill over the Coast Range further south for noticeably cooler weather, especially Friday when readings will begin to level off in the mid 80s.  This cool down will continue through Monday.  Most of the model information shows a trough of low pressure over the western 1/3 of the US through early next week, resulting in pleasant temperatures.  Weak impulses will move through this trough of low pressure, allowing occasional bursts of marine air into the valley for occasionally somewhat breezy weather.

 

By late Tuesday, the trough will move eastward, allowing fairly weak high pressure to begin to shift into California for a slow warming trend.  However, some models are indicating another weak trough will be over the Pacific Northwest and  northern California around Thursday so no big spike in temperatures is anticipated.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday.  Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 98/56/92/53/84 Reedley 98/57/94/54/85 Dinuba 97/55/93/53/84
Porterville 99/56/94/54/85 Lindsay 98/55/94/54/85 Delano 99/61/94/57/85
Bakersfield 99/65/95/59/85 Taft 97/70/94/65/83 Arvin 100/62/95/58/85
Lamont 99/62/95/57/84 Pixley 98/59/94/55/85 Tulare 97/55/93/53/83
Woodlake 97/55/94/53/85 Hanford 99/58/94/55/85 Orosi 97/55/93/53/84

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

51/85

Sunday

Mostly clear

52/86

Monday

Mostly clear

52/86

Tuesday

Mostly clear

53/88

Wednesday

Mostly clear

55/91

 

Two Week Outlook:  May 11 through May 17:  This model indicates upper level high pressure covering the eastern Pacific and the western ¼ of the US will result in somewhat above average temperatures and dry conditions.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds this morning will be light and variable, becoming out of the northwest this afternoon and evening at 8 to 15 MPH.  Winds tonight will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times.  Local gusts to near 30 are possible along the west side, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor.  Winds Thursday night through Saturday will occasionally be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH interspersed with periods of lighter winds.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to ten days, at least.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees for at least the next seven to ten days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 70%/20%  Porterville, 79%/19%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford 2.00, Parlier 1.76, Arvin 1.82, Orange Cove 1.88, Porterville 1.72, Delano 1.70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 70, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 72, Porterville 76, Delano 69.

Record Temperatures: 100/39. Average Temperatures: 81/54

Cooling Degree Days This Season:.  48 -9 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 70.5 +4.5 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.59  or -4.17 or 61% of average.  Month to Date: .00  or -09

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  2.77, +or-  -3.36 or 45% of average.  Month to date  .00 or -.04

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128,  Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:00 am   Sunset: 7:51  Hours of Daylight:  13:51

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  91 /  49 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  92 /  52 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  92 /  62 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  93 /  51 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  92 /  52 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  91 /  61 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  90 /  55 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  91 /  57 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 /  91 /  65 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  90 /  60 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.88    59    7.99    60    13.25    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    7.12    58    6.86    56    12.19    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.00    63    0.00     0    11.18    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    0.00     0    10.19    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.59    64    0.00     0    10.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.29    56    0.00     0     7.71    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.77    46    0.00     0     6.05     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.62    39    2.25    54     4.15     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.74    47    9.00    74    12.10    12.83

PASO ROBLES                      T    6.74    58   11.34    97    11.70    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.86    53   10.39    81    12.86    13.95

 

Next report: May 6/AM