May 29, 2021
The marine layer at Monterey is roughly 2,700 feet deep. Pressure is lower over the Desert Southwest than it is off shore. This is allowing a shallow intrusion of marine air to move through the Delta and Pacheco Pass. Currently, winds at the top of the dam at Pacheco Pass are sustained at 25 MPH, gusting to 35 MPH while at Travis AFB in the Delta winds are out of the southwest at 23 MPH, gusting to 30. This will be enough for minor cooling from Merced County north. It’s possible some cooling could occur elsewhere, as well. The trigger to all this is a weak upper low which currently is moving through southern California. The center of circulation appears to be over Santa Barbara County at this hour. Models show this feature dropping into northwest Mexico by Sunday morning, allowing a ridge of strong upper level high pressure to build northeastward into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Sunday night and Monday. This will trigger the first bona fide heat wave of the season for the valley as temperatures race upward, easily eclipsing the century mark Monday, continuing through at least Thursday. Hottest locations could possibly tease with the 106 to 107 marks, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. by Thursday, the high will break down over the Pacific Northwest. Even though pressure will weaken a tad over California, it will remain fairly strong with temperatures remaining well above average through next weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday with occasional high clouds mixed in. mostly clear and hot Sunday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 88/55/96/62/103 | Reedley 91/54/96/62/104 | Dinuba 90/53/95/62/103 |
Porterville 91/54/96/63/104 | Lindsay 91/53/96/62/103 | Delano 92/57/97/64/105 |
Bakersfield 91/65/96/72/104 | Taft 89/68/95/74/102 | Arvin 91/61/96/66/105 |
Lamont 91/61/96/68/104 | Pixley 90/55/96/63/104 | Tulare 90/54/94/62/103 |
Woodlake 90/53/95/62/103 | Hanford 90/56/96/63/103 | Orosi 89/53/95/61/103 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Tuesday
Mostly clear 64/105 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 65/105 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 64/102 |
Friday
Mostly clear 61/99 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 61/96 |
Two Week Outlook: June 4 through June 10: This model is indicating a zone of upper level high pressure will dominate the western 1/3 of the US during this time frame, resulting in above average temperatures. The typical dry conditions will continue.
June: This model is indicating a ridge of upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the Desert Southwest and, to a lesser extent, California, resulting in above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.
June, July, August: This model mimics the pattern of recent years, indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest being the most dominant feature, resulting in above average temperatures. Theoretically, this pattern blocks monsoonal moisture from moving northward. Typically, there’s little to no precipitation anyway, and that will be the case this summer.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds during the night and morning hours will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, through Tuesday.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA% Porterville, 80%/21%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.07, Parlier 1.86, Arvin 1.94, Orange Cove 2.04, Porterville 1.83, Delano NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 72, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 74, Porterville 79, Delano NA.
Record Temperatures: 107/45. Average Temperatures: 86/57
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 198 +15 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 70.6 +1.7 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.04 or 62% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -38
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.48 or 44% of average. Month to date .00 or -.24
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:42 am Sunset: 8:11 Hours of Daylight: 14:28
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 90 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 92 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 89 / 63 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 89 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 89 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 93 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 88 / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 60 8.33 63 13.22 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 59 6.87 57 12.01 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 M M 11.60 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.55 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 62 M M 10.63 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 54 M M 7.97 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 M M 6.25 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 37 2.25 52 4.33 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.75 46 9.07 73 12.40 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.36 95 11.94 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.53 80 13.13 13.32
Next report: May 29/am