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Forecast

June 26, 2021

June 26, 2021

Triple digits will again become a way of life beginning today, and more than likely at least into next weekend.  An oddball pattern continues to take shape over north America.  There is one high center over western British Columbia with another to the southwest of the southern California coast.  These two highs are merging while a weak upper low drifts farther out over the ocean.  The marine layer at Monterey is roughly 1500 feet deep.  There is enough of a weak onshore flow to allow modified marine air to seep through the Delta and through Pacheco Pass.  This may blunt the warming trend from Merced County north, however as the high continues to build and its warm descending air clamps down on the valley, it will completely shut down the marine machine.  The balloon sounding over San Diego this morning spit out a freezing level of 19,000 feet.  This is extremely high.

 

The second element of this oddball pattern will be a developing light easterly flow aloft which will begin to tape into monsoon moisture.  Beginning Monday afternoon, the chance for light to scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread in from the east over the mountains and deserts of southern California and the southern Sierra Nevada.  From late Monday through Thursday night, there will be a slight risk of sprinkles or even an isolated light shower or thunderstorm over the valley floor.  The chance of rain at any given location will be quite low but high enough to be mentioned in the forecast.

 

Forecast: Clear skies with hot afternoons and evenings through Monday morning.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy withar a slight risk of sprinkles or an isolated shower or thunderstorm afternoons or evenings through Friday and continued hot.  Mostly clear and hot Friday night through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 101/68/107/71/106 Reedley 101/67/107/71/105 Dinuba 100/67/106/69/105
Porterville 102/69/108/70/106 Lindsay 101/68/107/69/105 Delano 102/71/108/78/106
Bakersfield 101/78/108/79/106 Taft 100/80/107/82/105 Arvin 101/73/108/74/106
Lamont 101/72/107/77/105 Pixley 102/70/108/71/105 Tulare 101/67/106/69/106
Woodlake 101/67/107/69/105 Hanford 103/69/108/70/105 Orosi 100/66/106/68/104

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

72/106

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

73/103

Thursday

Partly cloudy

71/104

Friday

Partly cloudy

69/101

Saturday

Partly cloudy

68/101

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 2 through July 9:  This model shows an active monsoon into the Desert Southwest and, to a lesser extent, southern California and the Sierra Nevada.  This pattern always offers a small chance of some rain with above average temperatures continuing.

 

June:  This model is indicating a ridge of upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the Desert Southwest and, to a lesser extent, California, resulting in above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.

 

June, July, August: This model mimics the pattern of recent years, indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest being the most dominant feature, resulting  in above average temperatures.  Theoretically, this pattern blocks monsoonal moisture from moving northward.  Typically, there’s little to no precipitation anyway, and that will be the case this summer.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds afternoons and evenings will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts through Tuesday.  Winds during the night and  morning hours will be generally light and variable and generally out of the northwest.

 

Rain:  Dry weather will continue through at least midday Monday.  An oddball configuration will transport monsoon moisture into central and southern California on a weak easterly flow aloft.  Isolated to scattered showers will break out over the mountains and deserts of southern California and the Sierra Nevada possibly as early as Monday afternoon.  That weak easterly flow aloft will, theoretically, nudge an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two over the valley floor, mainly during the afternoons and evenings through Friday.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 60s. Kern:  Mid to upper 50s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/30%  Porterville, 74%/26%

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.20, Parlier 2.04, Arvin 2.26, Orange Cove 2.26, Porterville 2.09, Delano 2.04. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 82, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 84, Porterville NA, Delano 82.

Record Temperatures: 108/48. Average Temperatures: 95/63

Cooling Degree Days This Season:.  606 +137 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 79.4 +3.9 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.59  or -4.31 or 60% of average.  Month to Date: .00  or -23

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  2.77, +or-  -3.54 or 44% of average.  Month to date  .T or -.-05

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  , Parlier,  ,  Arvin,  , Belridge,    , Shafter,  , Stratford,  , Delano,  , Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 5:42 am   Sunset: 8:22  Hours of Daylight:  14:40

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  94 /  59 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  94 /  56 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  95 /  65 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  94 /  64 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  96 /  59 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  94 /  69 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  93 /  62 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  95 /  61 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1644 /  97 /  64 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  92 /  58 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.88    59    8.35    63    13.35    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    7.12    58    6.94    57    12.19    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    7.00    60    0.00     0    11.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    0.00     0    10.75    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    6.59    60    0.00     0    10.90    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.29    53    0.00     0     8.07     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.77    44    0.00     0     6.31     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    1.62    36    2.25    50     4.46     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    5.75    46    9.16    73    12.49    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.74    56   11.37    95    12.00    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.87    52   10.61    80    13.20    13.32

 

Next update: June 28/am