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Forecast

July 17, 2021/report

July 17, 2021

Strong upper level high pressure centered near the Four Corners region is expanding westward into California.  The freezing level over Oakland, according to the latest balloon sounding, was near 16,400 feet and it continues to rise.  Winds at Travis AFB in the Delta are southwest at just 10 MPH, meaning the marine machine has been shut down for now.  The depth of the marine layer at Monterey was 1,700 feet.  Yesterday at this time, the depth was around 2,200 feet.

 

To our south, a significant batch of moisture has moved into Arizona and extreme southern California.  The clockwise rotation of the upper high will begin to move the winds aloft out of the south and possibly even out of the southeast late tonight through Monday.  There also appears to be an upper air disturbance involved in all this which will help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts of southern California beginning later this afternoon.  This activity will spread north/northeast, increasing the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts of Kern  County and the Sierra Nevada.  These are high based thunderstorms, meaning most, if not all, of the precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground.  I would not discount the possibility of sprinkles or even isolated light showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor Sunday through Monday.

 

By Tuesday, the flow aloft will become more southwesterly, temporarily drying out the atmosphere.  Models are showing another batch of moisture moving northeastward into at least southern California Thursday and Friday.

 

It will be hot this week due to the high with triple digits possibly through Friday.  As a matter of fact, fourteen out of the sixteen days so far this month have been at or above 100.  But it’s a dry heat.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds today.  Partly cloudy tonight.  variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday with a small chance of sprinkles or even isolated light showers and thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy Monday night.  mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday night.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 102/70/99/71/104 Reedley 103/69/100/71/104 Dinuba 100/68/99/71/103
Porterville 104/70/99/71/104 Lindsay 102/68/99/71/103 Delano 103/69/99/71/104
Bakersfield 102/80/99/80/104 Taft 104/79/99/80/104 Arvin 103/70/100/72/104
Lamont 104/73/99/74/104 Pixley 103/71/99/73/104 Tulare 101/68/99/70/103
Woodlake 102/68/99/70/104 Hanford 103/69/99/71/103 Orosi 101/68/99/70/103

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

71/103

Wednesday

Mostly clear

70/104

Thursday

Partly cloudy

69/102

 

Friday

Partly cloudy

68/100

Saturday

Mostly clear

67/98

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 24 through July 30  The monsoon is alive and well on this model and is moving into the Desert Southwest.  On occasion, moisture from the monsoon works its way far enough west to affect central California.  Occasional periods of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Sierra Nevada.  Measurable rain is unlikely, but cannot be eliminated over the valley floor.  Temperatures will remain above average.

 

July:  The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual.  The typical dry conditions will continue.

 

July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months.  This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.

 

Winds Discussion:  During the afternoon and evening, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH.  During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Local gusts near 20 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side, during the later afternoon and overnight hours.

 

Rain: A significant batch of monsoon moisture now covers Arizona and northwest New Mexico.  It’s just now entering extreme southeast California.  Embedded in the middle of this mess is an easterly wave which could trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor Sunday and Monday.  Even a few nocturnal thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.  The chance of measurable rain at any given location remains very low, but cannot be ruled out Sunday through Monday.  On Tuesday, the winds aloft will become more southwesterly, nudging the monsoon back into Arizona.  Another batch of moisture is projected to move into southern California Thursday and Friday.  For now, it’s unclear how far north this moisture will progress.

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s. Kern:  Upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/22%  Porterville, 71%/23`%

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 40%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 30%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.30, Parlier 2.04, Arvin 2.16, Orange Cove 2.28, Porterville 2.06 , Delano 2.03. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 84, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 84.

Record Temperatures: 114/56. Average Temperatures: 98/67

Cooling Degree Days This Season:.  1050 +261 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 85.8 +5.2 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.59  or -4.34 or 60% of average.  Month to Date: .00  or -02

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  2.77, +or-  -3.34 or 44% of average.  Month to date  .T or -.-00

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  , Parlier,  ,  Arvin,  , Belridge,    , Shafter,  , Stratford,  , Delano,  , Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 5:54 am   Sunset: 8:16  Hours of Daylight:  14:23

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  95 /  60 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  95 /  60 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  99 /  67 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 100 /  66 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 100 /  62 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  99 /  73 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  97 /  64 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  99 /  65 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1651 /  99 /  73 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  92 /   M / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.88    59    8.35    63    13.36    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    7.12    58    6.94    57    12.20    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    7.00    60    0.00     0    11.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M       M     M    10.76    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    6.59    60    0.00     0    10.93    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.29    53    0.00     0     8.08     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.77    44    0.00     0     6.31     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    1.62    35    2.25    49     4.58     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    5.79    46    9.16    73    12.49    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.74    56   11.37    94    12.04    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.87    52   10.61    80    13.22    13.32

 

Next report:  July 19/am