July 23, 2021
Through Saturday, the winds aloft over the valley will remain out of the south/southwest. To illustrate what’s going on in the upper atmosphere, the balloon sounding above San Diego shows a southeast flow while over Oakland, the winds aloft are out of the southwest. This is due to the clockwise rotation around high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The pattern coming up Sunday through Monday is a rare event. First, because the amount of monsoon moisture moving into California is very heavy. Second, it is still July. This would be rare even for August and September. Much of Arizona remains under a flash flood watch as thunderstorms could put down 1 to 2 inches per hour.
The really rich tropical moisture remains in Arizona but will be forced into southern California Sunday. Not only will there be copious amounts of moisture, but there is a weak upper low embedded within this flow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread northwestward over the Kern County mountains and the Sierra Nevada later Sunday night.
With the embedded upper low moving through, isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over the valley floor. For you lightning observers, Monday night may be your best chance. It’s even possible flash flooding could occur along the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains,
The moisture and upper low will rotate northward out of the area Tuesday night. models show a massive upper high from California on the west to the Mississippi River on the east for more triple digit temperatures Wednesday and beyond. Only three days this month have been below the century mark and two of those were at 99.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. variable cloudiness Monday through Tuesday with a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Clearing Tuesday night. Mostly clear Wednesday through Friday and becoming hot.
Short Term:
| Madera 102/64/103/67/100 | Reedley 103/66/103/67/100 | Dinuba 102/65/102/67/100 |
| Porterville 103/67/103/70/101 | Lindsay 103/66/103/69/101 | Delano 103/68/103/70/100 |
| Bakersfield 103/77/102/79/100 | Taft 103/79/103/80/101 | Arvin 104/72/104/73/101 |
| Lamont 103/70/103/72/101` | Pixley 102/66/103/69/101 | Tulare 102/65/103/69/100 |
| Woodlake 101/65/102/68/100 | Hanford 103/68/102/70/100 | Orosi 101/64/102/68/100 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Chance of showers 72/97 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 74/93 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 70/100 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 70/103 |
Friday
Mostly clear 70/105 |
Two Week Outlook: July 29 through August 4: The monsoon is alive and well on this model and is moving into the Desert Southwest. On occasion, moisture from the monsoon works its way far enough west to affect central California. Occasional periods of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Sierra Nevada. Measurable rain is unlikely, but cannot be eliminated over the valley floor. Temperatures will remain above average.
July: The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual. The typical dry conditions will continue.
July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months. This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.
Winds Discussion: During the afternoon and evening, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Local gusts near 20 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side, during the later afternoon and overnight hours.
Rain: expect dry weather to continue through Sunday night. a rather unusual summer pattern is setting up for Monday through Tuesday. The winds aloft are currently out of the south/southwest but they will be southeasterly by Sunday. Models show an extremely juicy air mass moving through southern and central California Monday through Tuesday. The key to this event is a weak upper low embedded within a good batch of monsoon moisture. Showers and thunderstorms will spread over southern California late in the weekend, spreading northwestward into central California. The presence of that upper low could set off isolated to scattered light showers and thunderstorms. They may even develop over the valley floor Monday through Tuesday. Typically, these events drop no more than a few sprinkles. However, measurable rain has to be considered in some locations. The activity will move towards the northwest away from central California Tuesday for a return to dry and hot conditions.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 94%/18% Porterville, 68%/17`%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 70%. PM dew points: low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 40s
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.07, Parlier 1.93, Arvin 2.05, Orange Cove 2.12, Porterville 1.92, Delano 1.84. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 79, Parlier 81, Arvin, 79, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 80.
Record Temperatures: 113/55. Average Temperatures: 98/67
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 1166 +276 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 85.3 +4.3 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.34 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.02
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.34 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:59 am Sunset: 8:12 Hours of Daylight: 14:15
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 100 / 63 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 102 / 60 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 104 / 71 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 103 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 105 / 63 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 102 / 74 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 102 / 64 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 103 / 66 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 102 / 78 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 97 / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.93 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 35 2.25 49 4.61 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.16 73 12.49 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 94 12.05 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.61 80 13.23 13.32
Next report: July 24/am