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Forecast

August 12, 2021/report

August 12, 2021

A very hot air mass remains over the western US.  Sandberg at an elevation of 4,100 feet was reporting 77 degrees as of 6:00am.  Way up at Bear Peak in Tulare County at 8,200 feet the reading was 67 degrees.  Sixty seven degrees is generally the low at the valley floor at this point.  We will receive no help from the marine layer, which now is peeled back to 1,100 feet.

 

The general model information this morning is similar to yesterday’s, with generally three high centers.  One is just off the Washington coast, the second over the Four Corners region, and a third just off the US southeast coast.

 

The monsoonal moisture that flowed through yesterday and last night is slowly pulling out of the area.  A very moist monsoonal flow continues into the Desert Southwest.  Occasional periods of partly cloudy skies will continue through Monday on a southeast flow aloft.  There will be daily chances of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada through Monday.

 

The high over the Four Corners region will shift westward over California this weekend.  It’s hot now, but will become hotter through Monday.  By Monday night and Tuesday, a big low over western Canada will form a trough of low pressure southward through the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday night.  the current southeast flow will be replaced by a west/southwest flow aloft, moving the monsoon to our east.  Hopefully, this will allow the marine layer to deepen and allow that modified sea breeze to move down the valley, lowering temperatures into the mid to upper 90s by Wednesday.

 

Medium range models are now indicating a dominant trough of low pressure will be over the western states from midweek into the following week.  Hopefully this will bring temperatures down to average levels.

 

Forecast:   Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Monday and continued hot.  Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday.

 

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 104/71/105/71/106 Reedley 105/71/105/71/106 Dinuba 103/70/104/71/105
Porterville 105/71/105/71/107 Lindsay 104/69/105/70/106 Delano 104/71/105/72/106
Bakersfield 105/80/105/81/107 Taft 103/82/104/81/106 Arvin 105/75/106/76/107
Lamont 104/75/105/77/107 Pixley 104/70/105/71/106 Tulare 103/69/104/70/105
Woodlake 103/69/104/70/105 Hanford 105/71/105/71/107 Orosi 103/69/104/71/105

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Partly cloudy

74/107

Monday

Mostly clear

71/108

Tuesday

Mostly clear

70/103

Wednesday

Mostly clear

66/100

Thursday

Mostly clear

65/98

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 19 through August 25:  This model now indicates the monsoon will move out of the desert southwest and more into Texas and Oklahoma.  Temperatures will be near to marginally below average, for a change.

 

July:  The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual.  The typical dry conditions will continue.

 

July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months.  This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be mainly out of the northwest at around 5 to 12 MPH.  Winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to around 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.

 

Rain: We will still have to monitor the very active monsoon.  There will be daily chances of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.  At this time, as we monitor a southeast flow aloft, we will remain in somewhat of a gap in the moisture field.  I do look for partly cloudy skies at time Saturday through Monday, but for now there’s not enough to go o n to add rain to the forecast on the valley floor.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/19%  Porterville, 65%/21`%,  Dew Points: Hanford, low to mid 50s.  Bakersfield: Low to mid 50s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 70%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.04, Parlier 1.88, Arvin 2.24, Orange Cove 2.12, Porterville 1.94, Delano 1.83. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 79, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 78.

Record Temperatures: 110/55. Average Temperatures: 97/65

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  1559  +345 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 83.4 +2.5 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.59  or -4.35 or 60% of average.  Month to Date: .00  or -.03

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,T yesterday,  2.77, +or-  -3.34 or 44% of average.  Month to date  .T or -.-00

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  , Parlier,  ,  Arvin,  , Belridge,    , Shafter,  , Stratford,  , Delano,  , Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:15 am   Sunset: 7:52  Hours of Daylight:  13:39

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 / 105 /  68 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 105 /  63 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 106 /  76 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 104 /  68 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 108 /  69 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 105 /  78 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  99 /  67 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  98 /  69 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 / 102 /  81 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 103 /  69 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.88    59    8.35    63    13.36    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    7.12    58    6.94    57    12.20    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    7.00    60    0.00     0    11.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    0.00     0    10.76    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    6.59    60    0.00     0    10.94    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.29    53    0.00     0     8.09     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.77    44    0.00     0     6.31     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    1.68    36    2.25    48     4.68     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    5.79    46    9.18    73    12.51    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.74    56   11.37    94    12.08    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.87    52   10.61    80    13.24    13.32

 

Next report:  August 13/am