August 12, 2021
A very hot air mass remains over the western US. Sandberg at an elevation of 4,100 feet was reporting 77 degrees as of 6:00am. Way up at Bear Peak in Tulare County at 8,200 feet the reading was 67 degrees. Sixty seven degrees is generally the low at the valley floor at this point. We will receive no help from the marine layer, which now is peeled back to 1,100 feet.
The general model information this morning is similar to yesterday’s, with generally three high centers. One is just off the Washington coast, the second over the Four Corners region, and a third just off the US southeast coast.
The monsoonal moisture that flowed through yesterday and last night is slowly pulling out of the area. A very moist monsoonal flow continues into the Desert Southwest. Occasional periods of partly cloudy skies will continue through Monday on a southeast flow aloft. There will be daily chances of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada through Monday.
The high over the Four Corners region will shift westward over California this weekend. It’s hot now, but will become hotter through Monday. By Monday night and Tuesday, a big low over western Canada will form a trough of low pressure southward through the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday night. the current southeast flow will be replaced by a west/southwest flow aloft, moving the monsoon to our east. Hopefully, this will allow the marine layer to deepen and allow that modified sea breeze to move down the valley, lowering temperatures into the mid to upper 90s by Wednesday.
Medium range models are now indicating a dominant trough of low pressure will be over the western states from midweek into the following week. Hopefully this will bring temperatures down to average levels.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Monday and continued hot. Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
Madera 104/71/105/71/106 | Reedley 105/71/105/71/106 | Dinuba 103/70/104/71/105 |
Porterville 105/71/105/71/107 | Lindsay 104/69/105/70/106 | Delano 104/71/105/72/106 |
Bakersfield 105/80/105/81/107 | Taft 103/82/104/81/106 | Arvin 105/75/106/76/107 |
Lamont 104/75/105/77/107 | Pixley 104/70/105/71/106 | Tulare 103/69/104/70/105 |
Woodlake 103/69/104/70/105 | Hanford 105/71/105/71/107 | Orosi 103/69/104/71/105 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Sunday
Partly cloudy 74/107 |
Monday
Mostly clear 71/108 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 70/103 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 66/100 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 65/98 |
Two Week Outlook: August 19 through August 25: This model now indicates the monsoon will move out of the desert southwest and more into Texas and Oklahoma. Temperatures will be near to marginally below average, for a change.
July: The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual. The typical dry conditions will continue.
July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months. This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be mainly out of the northwest at around 5 to 12 MPH. Winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to around 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: We will still have to monitor the very active monsoon. There will be daily chances of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. At this time, as we monitor a southeast flow aloft, we will remain in somewhat of a gap in the moisture field. I do look for partly cloudy skies at time Saturday through Monday, but for now there’s not enough to go o n to add rain to the forecast on the valley floor.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/19% Porterville, 65%/21`%, Dew Points: Hanford, low to mid 50s. Bakersfield: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.04, Parlier 1.88, Arvin 2.24, Orange Cove 2.12, Porterville 1.94, Delano 1.83. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 79, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 78.
Record Temperatures: 110/55. Average Temperatures: 97/65
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1559 +345 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 83.4 +2.5 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.35 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season,T yesterday, 2.77, +or- -3.34 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:15 am Sunset: 7:52 Hours of Daylight: 13:39
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 105 / 68 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 105 / 63 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 106 / 76 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 104 / 68 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 108 / 69 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 105 / 78 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 99 / 67 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 98 / 69 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 102 / 81 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 103 / 69 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.68 36 2.25 48 4.68 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.18 73 12.51 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 94 12.08 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.61 80 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 13/am