October 20, 2021
The next weather system will spread showers into northern California tonight and early Thursday. Light showers could spread as far south as a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line, but for now it appears the bulk of the San Joaquin Valley will remain dry. Models still show a very active pattern over the eastern Pacific. We’re still on track for the first major winter storm of the season beginning early next week. This system will have a number of different challenges. Precipitation estimates continue to indicate 4 to 5 inches of rain along the Sierra Nevada and possibly even one inch totals over the valley floor, which would be highly unusual this early in the season. Tightly wound isobars continue to show up between northern and southern California for early next week. We’ll need to monitor the possibility of strong, gusty winds, mainly in the extreme south valley and along the west side Sunday and Monday. Precipitation should taper off into showers by Tuesday as a flat zone of upper level high pressure begins to build in from the west for several days of dry weather.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Saturday. A slight chance of showers from Fresno County north tonight and early Thursday with variable cloudiness at times Thursday night through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night leading to an increasing risk of showers Sunday, especially late in the day. Rain likely Sunday night through Monday night, possibly heavy at times. A chance of showers Tuesday. Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Temperatures: Highs today will warm mainly into the mid 70s, dropping into the mid 40s to lower 50s tonight. Highs Thursday will warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s, cooling back into the upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday night with most readings in the mid 70s Friday.
Two Week Outlook: October 26 through November 1; This model is showing a moist westerly flow moving across the eastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest and much of northern and central California. This model is indicating there’s a 60 percent of above average precipitation with below average temperatures.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally ata or less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the southeast through Saturday. There is a chance of strong, gusty south to southeast winds late Sunday and Monday in the extreme south valley and along the west side.
Rain: There is a chance of light showers as far south as Fresno County tonight and early Thursday. The remainder of the valley will stay dry. The storm track will continue to pound the Pacific Northwest and northern California through Saturday. An intense low will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to southern California, Models show the jet stream moving in perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada, meaning very heavy potential for precipitation is there. The precipitation will begin to wind down Tuesday with the storm track moving farther north Wednesday and Thursday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/17% Porterville, 63%/17`%, Dew Points: Hanford, low to mid 50s. Bakersfield: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 1.75, Parlier 1.59, Arvin 1.81, Orange Cove 1.74, Porterville 1.62, Delano 1.53. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 76, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 72.
Record Temperatures: 108/49. Average Temperatures: 93/65
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1704 +370 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 78.6 +1.1 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.35 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season,T yesterday, 2.77, +or- -3.35 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:37 am Sunset: 7:42 Hours of Daylight: 12:41
Yesterday’s Weather
:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 104 / 65 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 105 / 65 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 106 / 74 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 105 / 67 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 107 / 66 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 103 / 78 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 103 / 67 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 103 / 69 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 62 13.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 9999 92928 0.00 0 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.32 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.69 36 2.25 47 4.74 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.18 73 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.47 95 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.88 52 10.66 80 13.26 13.32
Next report: October 21