October 22, 2021
The latest Pacific storm has spread rain down to Merced County inland and is approaching Monterey along the coast. Like its predecessors, the thrust of this storm is more eastward than southward. Showers will continue to spread south and could make it all the way to Kern County later this evening, but amounts over the southern San Joaquin Valley will be fairly light. Some locations may only receive trace amounts.
I am still studying with great interest our first powerful winter storm of the season which will begin to spread precipitation over the area Sunday, continuing Monday. The main low has its origins in the Gulf of Alaska and will sweep through northern and central California Sunday night and Monday. Models show a semi atmospheric river forming off the central coast. It’s projected to move from west to east across central California Sunday night and Monday morning. Precipitation estimates from high resolution models are pretty impressive. From Sunday night through Monday, Yosemite Village is expected 3.42 inches, Kings Canyon 2.24. on the valley floor, even though there will be a heavy rain shadow along the west side and in Kern County, heavy amounts are anticipated. Point five seven is projected for Bakersfield and 1.23 for Fresno. Considering the drought pattern we’ve been under for years, if this does occur, even with flooding problems it will be quite an event.
The storm will begin to move into the interior west Tuesday as a high builds off shore, driving the storm track back to the north into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest for several days of dry weather.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through tonight with a chance of showers. A chance of showers will spread as far south as Kern County this evening. Partly cloudy later tonight through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. Mostly cloudy Sunday. Rain becoming likely Sunday afternoon through Monday, possibly heavy at times. A chance of showers Monday night. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 75/57/70/48/72 | Reedley 75/58/66/53/74 | Dinuba 73/56/66/53/73 |
| Porterville 76/54/70/50/72 | Lindsay 74/52/70/48/72 | Delano 75/53/69/51/72 |
| Bakersfield 76/56/66/54/75 | Taft 74/59/66/55/75 | Arvin 75/53/67/54/74 |
| Lamont 75/56/66/51/73 | Pixley 74/51/70/49/72 | Tulare 73/50/70/47/72 |
| Woodlake 74/50/70/48/52 | Hanford 75/51/71/48/72 | Orosi 73/49/70/46/72 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Rain 51/62 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 37/61 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 38/68 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 40/70 |
Friday
Mostly clear 46/74 |
Two Week Outlook: October 29 through November 4: Models show a building ridge of pressure off the southern California coast during this period,, driving the storm track further north and returning us to a dry pattern with near average temperatures.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be mainly out of the east to southeast at no more than 5 to 12 MPH. Winds Saturday night will begin to pick up, mainly out of the southeast, at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday into Monday will be strong and gusty out of the southeast at 15 to 30 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Gusts exceeding 50 MPH will be possible in the extreme south valley and locally along the west side. These winds will taper off by Sunday evening. Winds Monday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times.
Rain: I sincerely hope the storm due early next week will be a precursor of things to come this winter. For now, though, conditions look dry after Monday night. In the meantime, the latest low pressure system is moving through northern California with light showers down to a Monterey/Merced County line. This far south, the dynamics are quite weak so only a chance of light showers exists, possibly reaching into Kern County this evening. Dry weather will return later tonight through Saturday night. The next storm is most impressive on paper. Precipitation estimates indicate all of northern California and the Sierra Nevada will pick up 3-5 inches of rain with possibly one-inch plus totals north of Kern County on the valley floor. The west side and Kern County will be fighting a strong rain shadow. Even so, with the amount of available moisture, places like Bakersfield could pick up more than an inch. The rain will turn to showers Monday night with dry weather Tuesday and for the remainder of next week.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA% Porterville, 54`%, Dew points mid afternoon.. Bakersfield: Near 58.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 30%/40.. Dew point Porterville this afternoon: 54%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .98, Parlier .86, Arvin 1.00, Orange Cove .97, Porterville .83, Delano .84. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 62, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 66, Delano 57. *=data missing.
Record Temperatures: 92/35. Average Temperatures: 76/49
Heating Degree Days This Season. 44 . +23. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 67.2 which is 1.3 below average. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .41 or + .11
. Month to Date . .41
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .03 or -.11. Month to date .03
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, ,Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Sunrise/Sunset:HOD: 7:12/6:13/11:00
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 83 / 55 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 83 / 56 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 82 / 59 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 82 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 81 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 82 / 53 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 75 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24 season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.03 0.05 14 0.00 0 0.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.10 0.11 38 0.00 0 0.29 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.04 12 M M 0.34 11.80
MADERA T 0.05 23 M M 0.22 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 137 M M 0.30 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.09 35 M M 0.26 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 21 M M 0.14 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.24 4.84
SALINAS T 0.15 45 M M 0.33 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.02 7 0.00 0 0.30 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.27 13.32
Next report: October 23