October 23, 2021
It is rare to see such a powerful Pacific storm affect our region this early in the season. Fortunately, the drought has ensured that the water will be absorbed except for the possibility of poorly drained areas and the terrible burn scars on the Sierra Nevada. A strong winter storm will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to southern California Sunday into Monday. Copious amounts of subtropical air is streaming towards the center of the low while very cold air moves out of the Gulf of Alaska towards the northeast Pacific. All of this will arrive Sunday with very gusty winds and heavy rain.
There is enough subtropical moisture associated with this storm to keep snow levels mainly above 8000 feet. Above 8,000 feet however, 4 feet plus inches of snow can be anticipated. Precipitation estimates for the Sierra Nevada from the Kern County line northward indicate anywhere from 3.5 to 6 inches is likely. On the valley floor, the only region to project less than one inch is Bakersfield and Lamont which are anticipated to pick up about .75. The projection for Fresno is 1,88, for Madera 1.80, and for Porterville, 1.58. this would certainly be the type of system to get the grasslands going, but also one that could potentially do a lot of damage to late season raisins.
The back side of the low should enter Nevada later Monday, leaving scattered showers in its wake. By Monday night, all the precipitation should be confined to the mountain areas and the state of Nevada. I’m cautiously optimistic the dry ground ahead of the storm will efficiently lap up soil moisture.
The rest of the week will be dry as a big dome of upper level high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western one-third of the US. Abundant sunshine and somewhat above average temperatures will also be a benefit.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. A chance of showers mainly north of Fresno tonight. Rain likely Sunday, possibly locally heavy at times. Showers Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/58/57/50/69 | Reedley 68/55/65/55/64 | Dinuba 67/55/74/58/63 |
| Porterville 65/55/73/53/62 | Lindsay 66/56/73/62/64 | Delano 65/55/73/63/65 |
| Bakersfield 68/57/78/63/58 | Taft 65/58/73/62/65 | Arvin 68/57/71/57/63 |
| Lamont 67/55/75/55/62 | Pixley 65/58/72/62/65 | Tulare 64/54.72/62/64 |
| Woodlake 64/52/72/62/65 | Hanford 68/51/78/63/58 | Orosi 66/51/78/63/58 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 65/42 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 70/46 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 73/44 |
Friday
Mostly clear 77/46 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 80/49 |
Two Week Outlook: October 29 through November 4: Models show a building ridge of pressure off the southern California coast during this period,, driving the storm track further north and returning us to a dry pattern with near average temperatures.
Winds Discussion: Winds will increase later today and tonight at 15 to 25 MPH at times with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday will increase out of the east to southeast at 15 to 30 mph with stronger gusts possible. Gusts to near 45 MPH are possible in the typical hot spots at the bottom of the Grapevine and up the far west side of the valley. Winds will begin to decrease by late Monday then will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH by Monday evening with generally light northwesterly winds Tuesday.
Rain: The first of two strong, Pacific storms is moving into northern California. The first frontal system has spread rain down to about a Sacramento/Tahoe line and will spread mainly light to moderate precipitation over central California tonight. Following this system will be the Big Kahuna. An impressive low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska will form a semi-atmospheric river of air from roughly San Francisco in the north to Santa Barbara in the south on Sunday. Keep in mind, these are all complex systems I’m looking at, so I’m just trying to out guess Mother Nature in determining where the main thrust of the system will be. A 150 knot jet stream will be sweeping inland from west to east, perpendicular to the Coast Range and the Sierra Nevada. Tremendous lift by the mountains will theoretically wring out tremendous amounts of moisture Sunday and well into Monday. The end result will be rain gauges which will tell the story.
Following this, expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA% Porterville, 54`%, Dew points mid afternoon.. Bakersfield: Near 58.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 30%/40.. Dew point Porterville this afternoon: 54%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .92, Parlier .86, Arvin 1.99, Orange Cove .91, Porterville .81, Delano .82. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 62, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 66, Delano 57. *=data missing.
Record Temperatures :90/35. Average Temperatures: 76/49
Heating Degree Days This Season. 77/38 . +23. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 67.2 which is 1.3 below average. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .41 or + .09 Monthly .12
. Month to Date . .41
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .03 or -.12. Month to date .04
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, ,Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Sunrise/Sunset:HOD: 7:14/6:11/11:00
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 83 / 55 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 83 / 56 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 82 / 59 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 82 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 81 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 82 / 53 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 75 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24 season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.30 0.35 87 0.00 0 0.40 13.45
MODESTO 0.40 0.51 165 0.00 0 0.31 12.27
MERCED 0.12 0.16 43 M M 0.37 11.80
MADERA 0.01 0.06 25 M M 0.24 10.79
FRESNO T 0.41 128 M M 0.32 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.09 33 M M 0.27 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 20 M M 0.15 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.25 4.84
SALINAS 0.06 0.21 60 M M 0.35 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.02 6 0.00 0 0.32 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.29 13.32
Next report: October 25