October 25, 2021
Last week, on paper, my thinking was that the current storm would be a record event. Rain gauges north of Fresno County during the early morning hours were reporting rainfall rates of anywhere from .50 to 1.50 inches per hour. Staggering amounts of rain has fallen over northern California, generally in the 5 to 10 inch range. Rainfall amounts in the lower Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley have also been mind blowing. Lindon has reported 5.05, a station near Stockton 5.15, Sacramento 5.05 and Layayetta 7.12. Heavy rain is currently occurring along the southern Sierra Nevada. So far, Merced, Madera, and Mariposa Counties have measured 2.5 to 3.50 inches.
The atmospheric river of air is moving southward. As expected, a rain shadow has developed over Kern County but it will be overtaken during the next few hours. Rainfall amounts on the valley floor should range anywhere from 1 to 2 inches north of Kern County, especially along the east side, sloping to near .75 over the valley portion of Kern County.
The heavy precipitation will end from north to south this afternoon. Light showers will occur tonight and Tuesday behind this storm. The barometric pressure at Seattle has dropped to 29.29 inches of mercury near the center of the current low with a cold front stretching through central California then out to sea where major amounts of moisture will move from southwest to northeast into central California for the first half of the day and into southern California this afternoon and well into Tuesday.
Models show upper level high pressure building over the western states Tuesday through Thursday for a warming trend and generally clear skies. Areas of fog will now develop during the night and morning hours due to a cap over the valley floor and a soaking wet ground. From late Friday through the weekend, two weather systems will try to break through the high. These storms pale in comparison to the current event. Even though there is a great deal of discrepancy on models regarding this pattern, it appears showers will spread no further south than perhaps a Monterey/Merced line, so we’ll go with a dry forecast during that time and well into next week.
Forecast: Rain, heavy at times, this morning, ending north to south during the afternoon. Lingering showers will be possible tonight into Tuesday morning. Partly cloudy Tuesday with a chance of showers, mainly near the foothills. Clearing Tuesday night. Mostly clear Wednesday through Friday with areas of night and morning fog. Partly cloudy Saturday through Monday with patchy night and morning fog or low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/45/62/42/66 | Reedley 61/45/65/45/65 | Dinuba 62/42/64/43/64 |
| Porterville 63/45/65/45/66 | Lindsay 62/43/65/44/65 | Delano 62/48/64/45/66 |
| Bakersfield 62/50/62/50/65 | Taft 61/52/61/51/64 | Arvin 63/48/60/48/65 |
| Lamont 63/49/60/47/66 | Pixley 63/44/65/45/65 | Tulare 61/43/62/42/66 |
| Woodlake 62/42/62/43/65 | Hanford 63/46/65/44/64 | Orosi 62/42/64/43/64 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 42/70 |
Friday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 44/73 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 48/72 |
Sunday
Variable clouds 48/69 |
Monday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 46/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 1 through November 7: A blocking ridge pattern is evident during this time frame with high pressure over the west resulting in dry weather and above average temperatures.
Winds Discussion: Expect gusty winds out of the south to southeast later this morning at 10 to 20 MPH. local gusts to 35 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side. Winds will switch this afternoon, becoming out of the west to northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts through the late evening hours. Winds late tonight through Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph. winds Tuesday night through Thursday will be generally at or less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Definitely one for the record books. Between now and this evening, anywhere from .75 in Kern County to 2.00 with possibly heavier amounts in Tulare, Fresno, Merced, and Madera Counties. Street flooding is currently occurring in the Fresno area and no doubt elsewhere while Bakersfield and the surrounding area remain dry due to the rain shadow. That will change over the next couple of hours.
The precipitation will end beginning early afternoon from Fresno north to the late afternoon in the south valley. Lingering light showers will be possible tonight and even Tuesday, generally near the mountains.
Dry weather will prevail beginning Tuesday night, lasting through the remainder of the week. There are several differences on models for this weekend’s weather pattern. Two weak weather systems will try to drive their way through the high. My feeling is that any measurable rain will be north of our region. All o f the medium range models show a dry weather pattern going out through at least the first week in November.
Following this, expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/37% Porterville, 88`%,41% Dew points mid afternoon. Mid 50s. Bakersfield: Mid 50s;
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 0%/50.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .82, Parlier .69, Arvin .92, Orange Cove .73, Porterville .67, Delano .72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 62, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 66, Delano 58. *=data missing.
Record Temperatures: 91/36. Average Temperatures: 75/49
Heating Degree Days This Season. 46+17. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 67.2 which is 1.3 below average. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .41 or + .04 Monthly .12. Month to Date . .41
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .03 or -.18. Month to date .04
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, ,Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Sunrise/Sunset:HOD: 7:17/6:08/10:53
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 72 / 58 / 1.22 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 71 / 62 / 0.03 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 71 / 67 / T /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 73 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 73 / 67 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 78 / 64 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 73 / 63 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 75 / 61 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 78 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24 season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.32 0.77 171 0.00 0 0.45 13.45
MODESTO 0.10 0.59 164 0.00 0 0.36 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.16 38 M M 0.42 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.06 22 M M 0.27 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 111 M M 0.37 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.09 29 M M 0.31 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 18 M M 0.17 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.27 4.84
SALINAS T 0.21 52 M M 0.40 12.58
PASO ROBLES T 0.02 5 0.00 0 0.37 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.01 0.01 3 0.00 0 0.33 13.32
Next report: October 26