Due to ongoing health problems, (and ongoing and ongoing) two a day reports will be issued only on an as-needed basis during this year’s frost season. We sincerely hope this doesn’t create any problems with your business. As always, you can call for updates when you deem necessary. Should a medical appointment cause us to be out of the office during the mornings, we will let you know. Thank you once again for your continued patience.
November 3, 2021
A bubble of high pressure aloft is sitting directly above us this morning. The latest balloon sounding above Oakland indicates the freezing level is now up to 14,400 feet. A bubble of warm subsiding air is in place. I noted Blue Canyon at 5600 feet is reporting a temperature that’s 9 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Sandberg at 4100 feet is 5 degrees warmer. This same bubble of warm subsiding air has the valley capped this morning, resulting in quite a bit of ground fog. At last report, Visalia, Fresno, and Madera each had a visibility of ¼ mile.
The next weather system to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California will do so Thursday. Showers may spread down to a Monterey/Merced line, but no measurable rain is anticipated in the valley. A similar system will move from west to east north of us on Saturday. Both of these systems will spread some cloud cover over the area and may inhibit the formation of ground fog.
Models this morning are still pointing to a rain event for the valley Monday night and Tuesday of next week. The pattern is pretty complex, with one low center west of British Columbia and possibly a second low forming off the northern California coast, digging a trough all the way into southern California. On paper, this event does not appear to be as strong as previously indicated. However, northern California should do pretty well with precipitation estimates of nearly 4 inches north of Yosemite in the Sierra Nevada.
By Wednesday, an amplified pattern will have developed with a big ridge over and off the west coast and a big low in the center of the country. Typically, this leads to a prolonged period of dry weather with above average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness Monday, leading to periods of light rain Monday night and Tuesday. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 73/48/72/48/71 | Reedley 73/47/73/47/71 | Dinuba 71/46/71/47/70 |
| Porterville 74/47/73/47/70 | Lindsay 73/46/73/47/69 | Delano 74/48/73/48/70 |
| Bakersfield 74/57/71/55/69 | Taft 71/58/71/55/69 | Arvin 74/52/73/51/69 |
| Lamont 73/53/71/50/70 | Pixley 72/47/71/46/68 | Tulare 72/46/71/45/68 |
| Woodlake 72/47/71/47/69 | Hanford 73/49/73/47/69 | Orosi 72/46/71/46/68 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 45/70 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 45/68 |
Monday
PM rain 49/64 |
Tuesday
Am showers 49/65 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 47/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 10 through November 16: This model tends to move the storm track further north into the Pacific Northwest. I wouldn’t completely rule out a chance of showers during this period. Temperatures will remain somewhat above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than 10 MPH through Saturday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Sunday night. A complex low pressure system will develop from off the British Columbia coast to another low off the northern California coast. The whole mess will result in a trough digging all the way into southern California for a decent chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday. Precipitation estimates are somewhat lighter this morning, probably generally less than 1/3 of an inch on the valley floor in the heavier spots, although northern California could probably do pretty well. An amplified pattern will develop over the US beginning Wednesday with a big high building from southwest to northeast over the Pacific Ocean and western US. This is typically a period of prolonged dry weather, so the rain Monday night and Tuesday may be it for a while.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/43% Porterville, 97`%48%. Dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Bakersfield: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 70%/80.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .78, Parlier .56, Arvin .67, Orange Cove .55, Porterville .57, Delano .61. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 64, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 64, Delano 59. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 71/46. Record Temperatures: 88/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 117 +18. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 63.0 which is +4.5 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.27 or +.66. Monthly .00. -.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .94 or +63. Month to date .00 -.03
Average Temperature this month: 62.5, -3.1. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0 , Parlier, 0 , Arvin, 0, Belridge, 0 ,Shafter, 0 , Stratford, 0 , Delano, 0 , Porterville, 0
Sunrise/Sunset:HOD: 7:26/5:59/10:35
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 75 / 54 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 76 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 75 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 75 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 76 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 75 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 74 / 51 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 76 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 3.86 508 0.00 0 0.76 13.45
MODESTO 0.01 2.85 475 0.00 0 0.60 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.73 247 0.00 0 0.70 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.57 119 M M 0.48 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.27 208 0.00 0 0.61 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.10 220 0.00 0 0.50 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.94 303 0.00 0 0.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.65 176 M M 0.37 4.84
SALINAS 0.02 1.64 248 M M 0.66 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.57 257 0.00 0 0.61 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.29 215 0.00 0 0.60 13.32
Next report: November 4