Due to ongoing health problems, (and ongoing and ongoing) two a day reports will be issued only on an as-needed basis during this year’s frost season. We sincerely hope this doesn’t create any problems with your business. As always, you can call for updates when you deem necessary. Should a medical appointment cause us to be out of the office during the mornings, we will let you know. Thank you once again for your continued patience.
November 4, 2021
The latest in a series of fairly weak Pacific storms is moving through the Pacific Northwest and is entering northern California this morning. Enough mixing is taking place ahead of the front to limit fog formation. Again, the system is pretty weak and it will dissipate later today as it moves into central California with a low possibility of a few light showers down to a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. It is, however, flattening out the ridge of high pressure. This will result in a westerly flow over the weekend into California.
In the short term, a northwesterly push of air moving down the valley will generate some upslope clouds against the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada tonight and Friday morning. These clouds will burn off later Friday morning.
It now appears the best chance of rain for the next 7 to 10 days will arrive Monday night and Tuesday. A rather complex weather system will split as it approaches the California coast. This configuration generally robs central California of the main dynamics of these storms. Even so, a reasonably decent chance of showers exists. Precipitation estimates for this system indicate about a quarter of an inch can be expected from Fresno north, sloping to just a few hundredths in Kern County. The northern and central Sierra Nevada could do well, though, with 2 to 4 inches possible. Unfortunately, this is a one storm event as models show a high building off the southern California coast, building northward over northern California Wednesday, lasting through the remainder of next week for a prolonged period of dry weather. Night and morning fog will be the main challenge, especially if we receive precipitation Monday night and Tuesday.
Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy today then mostly cloudy in portions of Kern and Tulare Counties tonight and Friday morning. Mostly clear Friday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a decent chance of showers Monday night through Tuesday. A chance of showers Tuesday night mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night and Thursday with night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/47/70/44/68 | Reedley 72/44/69/44/68 | Dinuba 71/44/69/43/67 |
| Porterville 72/45/70/46/69 | Lindsay 72/44/70/43/67 | Delano 72/47/69/44/69 |
| Bakersfield 76/56/69/52/68 | Taft 70/52/68/53/68 | Arvin 71/51/70/50/67 |
| Lamont 71/51/70/52/69 | Pixley 72/45/70/44/68 | Tulare 71/44/70/43/67 |
| Woodlake 71/48/70/43/68 | Hanford 72/46/70/44/69 | Orosi 71/45/70/43/67 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 44/68 |
Monday
PM showers 44/63 |
Tuesday
Showers 48/64 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 45/67 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 44/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 11 through November 17: This model shows a fairly sturdy ridge of high pressure building along the west coast, driving the storm track into mainly British Columbia and Washington state. The chance of rain is very low during this time frame with above average temperatures.
November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme. If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.
November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California. Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 MPH, diminishing this evening. Winds Friday through Sunday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Our best chance of measurable rain will arrive Monday night and Tuesday. Models are indicating this system will be fairly complex with a split occurring off shore. This will reduce the chance of a significant rain event. From Fresno County north, a quarter of an inch of rain could be measured with just a few hundredths in Kern County. For next Wednesday and beyond, a persistent dry pattern will return with a strong ridge off shore.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/43% Porterville, 97`%48%. Dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Bakersfield: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 70%/80.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .78, Parlier .56, Arvin .67, Orange Cove .55, Porterville .57, Delano .61. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 64, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 64, Delano 59. *=data missing.
/33. Average Temperatures: 71/46. Record Temperatures: 88/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 117 +18. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 63.0 which is +4.5 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.27 or +.66. Monthly .00. -.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .94 or +63. Month to date .00 -.03
Average Temperature this month: 62.5, -3.1. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0 , Parlier, 0 , Arvin, 0, Belridge, 0 ,Shafter, 0 , Stratford, 0 , Delano, 0 , Porterville, 0
Sunrise/Sunset:HOD: 7:26/5:59/10:35
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 75 / 54 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 76 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 75 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 75 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 76 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 75 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 74 / 51 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 76 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 3.86 508 0.00 0 0.76 13.45
MODESTO 0.01 2.85 475 0.00 0 0.60 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.73 247 0.00 0 0.70 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.57 119 M M 0.48 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.27 208 0.00 0 0.61 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.10 220 0.00 0 0.50 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.94 303 0.00 0 0.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.65 176 M M 0.37 4.84
SALINAS 0.02 1.64 248 M M 0.66 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.57 257 0.00 0 0.61 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.29 215 0.00 0 0.60 13.32
Next report: November 5