Due to ongoing health problems, (and ongoing and ongoing) two a day reports will be issued only on an as-needed basis during this year’s frost season. We sincerely hope this doesn’t create any problems with your business. As always, you can call for updates when you deem necessary. Should a medical appointment cause us to be out of the office during the mornings, we will let you know. Thank you once again for your continued patience.
November 5, 2021
A large area of upslope clouds covers Kern and Tulare Counties at this hour. Bakersfield’s Meadows Field is reporting a broken layer of clouds based at 2,900 feet with a solid layer at 4,000 feet. Porterville was reporting overcast at 4,000 while Visalia’s overcast was reported to be 4,300. Lemoore, Fresno, and Madera are relatively clear. The cloud deck in the south valley will be slow to dissipate. It may be early to mid afternoon before the sun pokes through in all areas.
The next weather system will be a non event tonight and Saturday for central California. A rapidly moving weakening cold front will spread a few light showers down to a Bay Area/Stockton/Yosemite line. Dry weather will continue through Sunday night.
Models still show a rather vigorous low pressure system approaching the northern and central coast Monday. This morning’s models indicate the system will pack more moisture than previous model runs had. If these super duper computers have a handle on the situation, most areas north of Kern County could see around .25 to .33 with about .10 or so in Kern County. Even though this will be a fairly potent storm, especially for northern California, it will be a fast mover with precipitation drawing to a close in most areas by Tuesday evening.
Models have persistently shown the development of a high center west of the northern Baja, California coast line Wednesday. From there, a ridge will build northward into the Pacific Northwest for the beginning of a prolonged period of dry, mild weather. If we do happen to get enough ground moisture from the Monday night/Tuesday rain event, fog and low clouds will be the primary concern later next week along with its effect on temperatures. The foothill and mountain areas will experience above average temperatures during this time frame.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties this morning with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Gradual clearing in the south valley this afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight through Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness Monday morning with a chance of rain Monday afternoon. Rain likely at times Monday night and Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/44/68/43/63 | Reedley 69/43/68/42/63 | Dinuba 68/43/68/42/62 |
| Porterville 67/44./69/43/63 | Lindsay 67/42/68/42/62 | Delano 68/45/69/43/63 |
| Bakersfield 67/51/68/50/62 | Taft 69/52/65/51/60 | Arvin 68/49/67/48/61 |
| Lamont 68/49/67/48/61 | Pixley 67/44/69/45/63 | Tulare 69/46/68/43/62 |
| Woodlake 69/43/68/42/62 | Hanford 69/44/68/43/63 | Orosi 68/42/68/41/61 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
PM rain likely 41/62 |
Tuesday
Periods of rain 45/64 |
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy 45/64 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 42/67 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 42/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 11 through November 17: This model shows a fairly sturdy ridge of high pressure building along the west coast, driving the storm track into mainly British Columbia and Washington state. The chance of rain is very low during this time frame with above average temperatures.
November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme. If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.
November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California. Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be variable to no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH. winds Monday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Sunday night. The chance of rain will begin to increase later Monday and will be likely at times Monday night and Tuesday. This will be a one storm event and will also be a fast mover. Even so, latest models are a bit more bullish on this being at least an average rain event for the valley with possibly ..25 to .33 north of Kern County and along the east side. Kern County could pick up .10 with a big of luck.
Beginning Wednesday, a prolonged period of dry weather will prevail, lasting for at least the next7 to 10 days.
Frost: Obviously, the frost season is getting off to a slow start this year. Currently, I see nothing suggesting a cold pattern on the horizon.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/43% Porterville, 97`%48%. Dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Bakersfield: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 70%/80.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .78, Parlier .56, Arvin .67, Orange Cove .55, Porterville .57, Delano .61. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 64, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 64, Delano 59. *=data missing.
/33. Average Temperatures: 71/46. Record Temperatures: 88/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 117 +18. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 63.0 which is +4.5 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.27 or +.66. Monthly .00. -.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .94 or +63. Month to date .00 -.03
Average Temperature this month: 62.5, -3.1. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0 , Parlier, 0 , Arvin, 0, Belridge, 0 ,Shafter, 0 , Stratford, 0 , Delano, 0 , Porterville, 0
Sunrise/Sunset/HOD: 7:26/5:59/10:35
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 75 / 54 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 76 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 75 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 75 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 76 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 75 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 74 / 51 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 76 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 3.86 508 0.00 0 0.76 13.45
MODESTO 0.01 2.85 475 0.00 0 0.60 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.73 247 0.00 0 0.70 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.57 119 M M 0.48 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.27 208 0.00 0 0.61 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.10 220 0.00 0 0.50 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.94 303 0.00 0 0.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.65 176 M M 0.37 4.84
SALINAS 0.02 1.64 248 M M 0.66 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.57 257 0.00 0 0.61 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.29 215 0.00 0 0.60 13.32
Next report: November 6