November 6, 2021
Low level clouds continue to regenerate south of Fresno County from a west/southwest flow aloft. The base of the cloud deck is a bit lower this morning. Bakersfield is reporting a base of 3,300 feet, Porterville 3400, and Visalia 3,600 feet. North of roughly Lemoore, just scattered higher clouds are being observed.
A strong west/southwest flow in the upper atmosphere is currently over California from a trough of low pressure extending from off shore British Columbia to central California. Disturbances continue to ride through this trough. The latest will move through tonight and Sunday, spreading showers down to roughly a Bay Area/Stockton/Yosemite line. After this system goes through, our attention will turn to a stronger system which will spread rain over northern and central California Monday night and Tuesday.
Models this morning show more of a split taking place off shore. If this occurs, precipitation amounts will be much lighter. Models point to no precipitation south of the Kern County mountains as the thrust of the storm will be more west to east.
A new pattern will begin Wednesday, entering us into yet another period of mild, dry weather. The amount of fog and low clouds which will form will, in part, be determined by how much rain falls. At any rate, by later next week, a cap will be over the valley which certainly favors widespread fog and low clouds. Temperatures, though mild, will definitely be affected by the amount of fog and low clouds develop and the amount that burns off in the afternoon.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning south of Fresno with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Variable cloudiness tonight through Sunday night with patchy night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Monday morning leading to a chance of showers mainly from Fresno County north Monday afternoon. Light showers likely Monday night and Tuesday. A chance of showers Tuesday evening. Mostly cloudy later Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with patchy fog and low clouds. Increasing areas of night and morning fog and low clouds with afternoon sunshine Wednesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/46/62/38/62 | Reedley 70/44/64/39/63 | Dinuba 68/43/64/38/63 |
| Porterville 69/44/64/40/62 | Lindsay 68/43/64/38/61 | Delano 68/46/64/40/63 |
| Bakersfield 67/52/63/44/64 | Taft 66/52/60/44/65 | Arvin 67/49/63/48/64 |
| Lamont 66/50/60/45/63 | Pixley 67/44/64/39/63 | Tulare 68/43/64/38/62 |
| Woodlake 67/43/64/39/63 | Hanford 68/44/64/39/62 | Orosi 67/43/64/38/62 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Showers likely 48/64 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 47/68` |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 43/65 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 44/68 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 45/71 |
Two Week Outlook: November 13 through November 19: This model shows a fairly sturdy ridge of high pressure building along the west coast, driving the storm track into mainly British Columbia and Washington state. The chance of rain is very low during this time frame with above average temperatures.
November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme. If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.
November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California. Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be variable to no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH. winds Monday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH at times Monday night and Tuesday.
Rain: Models this morning have backed off on the potential for rain for Monday night and Tuesday. All in all, the rain line is projected to move as far south as the Tehachapi Mountains with roughly .25 inch totals from Tulare County north on the east side and .10 or less in Kern County with .10 to .15 along the west side. Models still show a strong high building along the west coast beginning Wednesday for the start of a prolonged period of dry weather which will last through at least the middle of the following week.
Frost: Obviously, the frost season is getting off to a slow start this year. Currently, I see nothing suggesting a cold pattern on the horizon.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/55% Porterville, 100%/55%. Dew points: Upper Low to mid 50s. Bakersfield: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 30%/50.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .74, Parlier .54, Arvin .61, Orange Cove .52, Porterville .51, Delano .55. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 64, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 64, Delano 59. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/45. Record Temperatures: 87/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 123 +1. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 62.9 which is +4.9 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.27 or +.59. Monthly .00. -.12
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .94 or +59. Month to date .00 -.07
Average Temperature this month: 62.5, -3.1. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0 , Parlier, 0 , Arvin, 0, Belridge, 0 ,Shafter, 0 , Stratford, 0 , Delano, 0 , Porterville, 0
Sunrise/Sunset/HOD: 6:29/4:56/10:29
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 72 / 50 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 73 / 53 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 74 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 75 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 71 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 72 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 3.88 446 0.00 0 0.87 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 2.85 419 0.00 0 0.68 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.74 217 0.00 0 0.80 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.57 104 T 0 0.55 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.27 187 0.00 0 0.68 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.10 200 0.00 0 0.55 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.94 269 0.00 0 0.35 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.65 167 T 0 0.39 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 1.68 224 T 0 0.75 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.57 231 0.00 0 0.68 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.29 187 0.00 0 0.69 13.32
Next report: November 8