November 30, 2021
The valley remains locked under a zone of upper-level high pressure stretching from the eastern Pacific Ocean eastward across California and into the Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure is centered over southern Idaho, maintaining an off shore flow. The current altimeter reading at Boise, Idaho is 30.36 inches of mercury while at LAX the current reading is 30.02, keeping the Santa Ana wind configuration going. Models show the high strengthening over the next 48 hours. Blended model information this morning indicates readings will move into the low to mid 70s through at least Friday. This is anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees above average for the time of year.
Models do show a system diving into the Great Basin over the weekend which, in theory, could drive some drier air down the valley. The air mass itself in the short term has moderated to the point where most, if not all locations will be above freezing through Saturday. If that drier air mass does make the valley its home, it’s possible local frost could occur Sunday through Tuesday of next week.
One of the medium range models this morning shows a strong low moving into California about the 7th, however no trends have developed. For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry until more supportive model information becomes available.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday with patchy night and morning fog. Mostly clear Monday through Tuesday with patchy night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/37/73/40/73 | Reedley 70/38/71/40/70 | Dinuba 69/36/70/39/71 |
| Porterville 71/37/71/40/73 | Lindsay 71/35/70/39/73 | Delano 69/37/71/42/72 |
| Bakersfield 71/48/73/49/74 | Taft 71/54/72/55/74 | Arvin 71/39/73/41/73 |
| Lamont 70/42/74/45/74 | Pixley 69/37/70/41/73 | Tulare 70/36/70/38/72 |
| Woodlake 69/35/70/38/72 | Hanford 71/40/72/42/73 | Orosi 69/36/70/40/73 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Patchy fog/PM sun 41/72 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/PM sun 40/70 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/PM sun 35/65 |
Monday
Patchy fog/PM sun 33/64 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/PM sun 32/63 |
Two Week Outlook: December 6 through December 12: This model is not as favorable in the possibility of the storm track moving further south. It now indicates the bulk of the precipitation affecting the Pacific Northwest and possibly northern California with above average temperatures continuing.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Friday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight, but only slightly above in the coldest locations. Above freezing conditions can be expected through at least Saturday. On Saturday night and Sunday, a weak weather system will dive into the Great Basin, increasing the off shore flow. There is some indication of a drier and somewhat cooler air mass moving down the valley which could lead to some low to mid 30s Sunday through Tuesday of next week. I want to keep a close eye on this as some models are indicating temperatures dropping into the upper 50s and lower 60s for highs with lows possibly dropping into the upper 20s in the coldest spots as early as Monday. Nothing in the longer range models at this time suggesting a particularly cold air mass.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 86%/35% Porterville, 100%/39%. Dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .46, Parlier .43, Arvin .58, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .50, Delano .46. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 58, Parlier 56, Arvin, .57, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 53, Delano 49. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 59/39. Record Temperatures: 77/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 376 -32. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or +.18. Monthly .30. -.53
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +18. Month to date .01 -.48
Average Temperature this month: 55.5, +2.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 74 , Parlier, 104 , Arvin, 89, Belridge, 108 ,Shafter, 96 , Stratford, 133 , Delano, 105 , Porterville, 119 `
Sunrise. 6:53 Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:51
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
: Id Name Elev Temp Temp Pcpn Depth
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 70 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 70 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 70 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 70 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 72 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 70 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 72 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 214 0.09 4 2.02 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 195 0.10 6 1.57 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.00 123 1.08 67 1.62 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 49 0.16 12 1.32 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 113 0.28 20 1.39 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 118 0.13 12 1.05 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 123 0.39 51 0.77 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 120 T 0 0.65 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 122 0.37 21 1.80 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 87 0.25 16 1.61 13.32
Next report: December 1