December 2, 2021
Strong upper level high pressure extends from the eastern Pacific across California to a second high over the Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over Utah, generating a weak off shore flow. There are two low centers. One us just off the southern California coast while the second is roughly 1,000 miles west of the southern California coast. The circulation around the high nearest the south coast has the winds aloft out of the southeast. High clouds are caught up in the circulation and will be visible from time to time over the next few days.
Today may turn out to be the warmest day we’ll see until sometime in February. Downslope heating off the Kern County mountains will drive temperatures into the mid to upper 70s in Kern County and low to mid 70s elsewhere.
The low off the south coast will begin to move inland, tracking through northern Baja over the weekend, weakening the high and setting up a cooling trend. Upper level high pressure off the Pacific coast will be the dominant feature through the weekend.
The high will move further off shore Monday night and Tuesday, allowing a rather compact low to move out of the Gulf of Alaska. It will move through central California Tuesday. Unfortunately, it appears the main dynamics of this storm will be just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. Any precipitation from this storm will likely be from a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line north, although very light showers are possible as far south as Kings Canyon. A few sprinkles are possible, but nothing measurable is expected in the valley at this time. This big change will lower temperatures closer to seasonal average, however.
Upper level high pressure off the west coast will be the main feature long term. Models do show the high giving way about the 10th, but at this point we’ll keep the forecast dry.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds and patchy morning fog, it will be mostly clear and hazy through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night. Variable cloudiness Tuesday with a chance of a few sprinkles. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday with patchy night and morning fog and/or low clouds.
Short Term:
Madera 73/39/70/39/67 | Reedley 74/38/70/39/65 | Dinuba 72/37/69/39/65 |
Porterville 75/38/71/38/66 | Lindsay 74/37/70/37/65 | Delano 74/40/70/40/66 |
Bakersfield 77/50/72/47/65 | Taft 74/55//72/52/65 | Arvin 76/45/71/43/67 |
Lamont 77/43/71/42/66 | Pixley 75/39/70/39/65 | Tulare 72/39/70/40/65 |
Woodlake 73/39/70/38/66 | Hanford 74/39/70/40/67 | Orosi 73/38/69/39/65 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Sunday
Patchy fog/hazy sun 38/67 |
Monday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 38/63 |
Tuesday
Sprinkles possible 42/65 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 40/61 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 39/63 |
Two Week Outlook: December 9 through December 15: This model is indicating an active pattern for most of the western US. Northern and central California should, theoretically, enjoy above average precipitation along with above average temperatures.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Saturday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: A weather system will dive into the Great Basin Tuesday. A cold front will move down the valley with measurable rain no further south than a Monterey/Merced line. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out for the central valley. Otherwise, it looks like dry times ahead.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 86%/33% Porterville, 99%/35%. Dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .50, Parlier .47, Arvin .57, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .51, Delano .46. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 57, Parlier 55, Arvin, .56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 53, Delano 48. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 58/38. Record Temperatures: 74/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 408 -49. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or +.10. Monthly .00. -.04
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +14. Month to date .00 -.02
Average Temperature this month: 55.5, +7.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 92 , Parlier, 134 , Arvin, 114, Belridge, 135 ,Shafter, 121 , Stratford, 161 , Delano, 130 , Porterville, 149 `
Sunrise. 6:55 Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:49
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 71 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 73 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 74 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 75 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 77 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 74 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 77 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 200 0.09 4 2.16 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 182 0.10 6 1.68 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.99 116 1.08 63 1.71 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 46 0.16 11 1.41 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 107 0.28 19 1.47 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 112 0.13 12 1.11 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 117 0.39 48 0.81 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 116 T 0 0.67 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 114 0.37 19 1.92 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 82 0.25 15 1.70 13.32
Next report: December 3