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Forecast

December 2, 2021/report

December 2, 2021

Strong upper level  high pressure extends from the eastern  Pacific across California to a second high over the Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over Utah, generating a weak off shore flow. There are two  low centers. One us just off the southern California coast while the second is roughly 1,000 miles west of the southern California coast. The circulation around the high nearest the south coast has the winds aloft out of the southeast. High clouds are caught up in the circulation and will be visible from time to time over the next few days.

 

Today may turn out to be the warmest day we’ll see until sometime in February. Downslope heating off the Kern County mountains will drive temperatures into the mid to upper 70s in Kern County and low to mid 70s elsewhere.

 

The low off the south coast will begin to move inland, tracking through northern Baja over the weekend, weakening the high and setting up a cooling trend. Upper level high pressure off the Pacific coast will be the dominant feature through the weekend.

 

The high will move further off shore Monday night and Tuesday, allowing a rather compact low to move out of the Gulf of Alaska.  It will move through central California Tuesday. Unfortunately, it appears the main dynamics of this storm will be just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. Any precipitation from this storm will likely be from a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line north, although very light showers are possible as far south as Kings Canyon. A few sprinkles are possible, but nothing measurable is expected in the valley at this time. This big change will lower temperatures closer to seasonal average, however.

 

Upper level high pressure off the west coast will be the main feature long term. Models do show the high giving way about the 10th, but at this point we’ll keep the forecast dry.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds and patchy morning fog, it will be mostly clear and hazy through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night. Variable cloudiness Tuesday with a chance of a few sprinkles. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday with patchy night and morning fog and/or low clouds.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 73/39/70/39/67 Reedley 74/38/70/39/65 Dinuba 72/37/69/39/65
Porterville 75/38/71/38/66 Lindsay 74/37/70/37/65 Delano 74/40/70/40/66
Bakersfield 77/50/72/47/65 Taft 74/55//72/52/65 Arvin 76/45/71/43/67
Lamont 77/43/71/42/66 Pixley 75/39/70/39/65 Tulare 72/39/70/40/65
Woodlake 73/39/70/38/66 Hanford 74/39/70/40/67 Orosi 73/38/69/39/65

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Patchy fog/hazy sun

38/67

Monday

Patchy fog/partly cloudy

38/63

Tuesday

Sprinkles possible

42/65

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

40/61

Thursday

Partly cloudy

39/63

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  December 9 through December 15: This model is indicating an active pattern for most of the western US. Northern and central California should, theoretically, enjoy above average precipitation along with above average temperatures.

 

December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds tonight through Saturday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  A weather system will dive into the Great Basin Tuesday. A cold front will move down the valley with measurable rain no further south than a Monterey/Merced line. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out for the  central valley. Otherwise, it looks like dry times ahead.

Frost: All locations will be above freezing.

 

Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 86%/33%  Porterville, 99%/35%.  Dew points:  Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 30s

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 80%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .50, Parlier .47, Arvin .57, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .51, Delano .46. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 57, Parlier 55, Arvin, .56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 53, Delano 48. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 58/38.  Record Temperatures: 74/27

Heating Degree Days This Season.  408  -49. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .1.57 or +.10. Monthly  .00. -.04

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, .95 or +14.  Month to date  .00 -.02

Average Temperature this month: 55.5, +7.5 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 92 , Parlier, 134 ,  Arvin,  114, Belridge,  135  ,Shafter, 121 , Stratford, 161 , Delano, 130 , Porterville, 149 `

Sunrise. 6:55 Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:49

NA=missing

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  71 /  40 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  73 /  41 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  73 /  45 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  74 /  39 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  75 /  40 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  77 /  47 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  74 /  40 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  77 /  40 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                    24hr     season  %      L.Y.    %     Ave.   Annual total ave

STOCKTON                      0.00    4.32   200    0.09     4     2.16    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    3.06   182    0.10     6     1.68    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    1.99   116    1.08    63     1.71    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.65    46    0.16    11     1.41    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    1.57   107    0.28    19     1.47    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    1.24   112    0.13    12     1.11     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.95   117    0.39    48     0.81     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.78   116       T     0     0.67     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    2.19   114    0.37    19     1.92    12.58

PASO ROBLES                      M       M     M       M     M        M    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.40    82    0.25    15     1.70    13.32

 

Next report: December 3