December 4, 2021
Low clouds and fog, which gained a firm foothold in the lower Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys the past few mornings spread southward overnight. They have now reached the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Every location between Delano and Sacramento is reporting ¼ mile visibility or less. Since the fog developed in the later part of the night, temperatures are relatively cold and may remain quite cold in some areas, depending on whether or not the fog clears at any given location. Where it does not clear, high temperatures this afternoon will only reach into the low to mid 40s. Where hazy sunshine is more abundant, low to mid 60s can be expected. As you might guess, temperature forecasting is a nightmare under these conditions.
In the big picture, there are two very weak upper lows. One is over southern California. The second is off the southern California coast. Neither feature has any precipitation associated with it. Upper level high pressure extends from the eastern Pacific across northern California into the Great Basin.
The next overall change in our pattern will arrive Monday night and Tuesday as the high breaks down, allowing a trough of low pressure to move through. The main dynamics of this storm will be over the Great Basin. There is a chance of precipitation over the high Sierra, but the valley will remain dry. A stronger low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California Thursday. If models are accurate, we’ll have a decent chance of rain with this system. Yet a third system may arrive about next Saturday. This storm appears to be quite cold and could actually lead to some frost nights beginning a weak from Sunday, but nothing serious is on the horizon.
Forecast: Widespread fog and low clouds nights and mornings with partial afternoon clearing and hazy sunshine. Some areas may not clear at all, mainly in the center of the valley. Variable cloudiness Monday night and Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with a chance of showers Thursday and Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday and Friday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds with increasing cloudiness Saturday.
Short Term: High temperatures in areas with no fog clearing will only observe temperatures in the 40s. Areas that are relatively fog free will have readings in the low to mid 60s through Monday.
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 40/61 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 38/61 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 44/63 |
Friday
Mostly cloudy 39/57 |
Saturday
Increasing clouds 33/53 |
Two Week Outlook: December 10 through the 16: More and more, models are indicating an active weather pattern with a good chance of precipitation during this period. These storms will have their origins in the Gulf of Alaska, so expect below average temperatures.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Monday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry conditions will continue through Wednesday of next week. It now appears the chance of rain will increase this coming Thursday as a stronger low drops southward from the Gulf of Alaska. It’s a bit early for rainfall projections, but it does look like this could at least be an average winter storm for central California.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing each night through Monday but only slightly above in the coldest locations. Medium range models show a cold low dropping southward from the Gulf of Alaska next Thursday and Friday. The air mass behind this system is cold, but not critically so. Even so, we could see widespread low to mid 30s a week from today and into the following week with upper 20s possible in the coldest low lying frost pockets.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 86%/44% Porterville, 98%/40%. Dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .50, Parlier .48, Arvin .57, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .49, Delano .46. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 57, Parlier 55, Arvin, .56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 53, Delano 48. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 58/38. Record Temperatures: 78/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 428 -64. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or +.01. Monthly .00. -.13
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +08. Month to date .00 -.08
Average Temperature this month: 54.8, +6.8. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 99, Parlier, 151 , Arvin, 128, Belridge, 149 ,Shafter, 140 , Stratford, 177 , Delano, 149 , Porterville, 169 `
Sunrise. 6:57 Sunset, 4:42, hours of daylight, 9:47
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 70 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 70 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 73 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 188 0.09 4 2.30 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 170 0.10 6 1.80 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.99 110 1.08 60 1.81 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 43 0.16 11 1.50 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 101 0.28 18 1.56 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 106 0.13 11 1.17 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 109 0.39 45 0.87 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 111 T 0 0.70 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 107 0.37 18 2.05 12.58
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 78 0.25 14 1.80 13.32
Next report: December 6