December 6, 2021pm
Most of the valley continues to be locked under a low overcast, as of 1:00pm. Mid to upper 40s are widespread with the exception of Bakersfield and Lemoore which are reporting 50 degrees. The pot is beginning to stir, however, as the low overcast is mixing out over Kern County. This clearing will continue to work northward this afternoon, revealing a high cloud deck. A weak trough of low pressure will move through central California late tonight and Tuesday morning. Light showers are occurring over northern California, but the bulk of this system’s dynamics will slide southward off shore, resulting in just a chance of light showers tonight and tomorrow morning. A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will follow.
Models are still showing a pretty decent winter storm brewing for late Wednesday night and Thursday. Blended model information is spitting out a projection of .63 for Porterville, .65 at Fresno, and .45 at Bakersfield with near one-inch totals over the foothills of the Sierra Nevada. The air mass diving southward behind this system is quite cold, but certainly nothing unusual for December. Still, on Saturday and Sunday mornings, we should see our first widespread frost event of the season.
Medium range models for the period Monday night through Wednesday of next week are depicting a powerful winter storm off the Oregon/northern California coast. There’s even a suggestion of a possible pineapple connection, or as the young whippersnappers like to call it, an atmospheric river.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight through Tuesday morning with a chance of sprinkles or scattered light showers after midnight. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with areas of low clouds and fog developing during the early morning hours. Increasing cloudiness by Wednesday afternoon with rain becoming likely at times later Wednesday night and Thursday. A diminishing chance of showers Thursday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday morning., clearing during the afternoon but possibly remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and possibly southeastern Tulare County. Mostly clear Saturday night through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning.
Short Term: Lows tonight and Tuesday night will range in the low to mid 40s. highs Tuesday and Wednesday will warm into the low to mid 60s.
Rain: A rapidly advancing weather system in northern California will move through the valley after midnight tonight and Tuesday morning. Models show the bulk of the energy from this storm diving from north to south off shore, robbing us of the necessary ingredients for a rain event. At any rate, scattered light showers will be possible later tonight through Wednesday morning. Models still show a good rain event for Wednesday night and Thursday as a low drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California. The potential of between .50 and .75 or so is there along the east side with roughly .25 or so along the west side and in Kern County. Dry weather will return late Thursday night through at least Monday of next week. Models are still showing an impressive winter storm off the Oregon/northern California coast Monday night through Wednesday of next week. There’s a suggestion of a pineapple connection forming.
Frost: Our first widespread, below freezing event will occur this weekend. The air mass diving southward behind a cold low system is quite cold, but manageable. Widespread upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible Saturday and Sunday mornings. Mid 20s will be possible in unprotected river bottom and similar locations. Of course, upslope clouds will be hanging around also for possible cloud cover over Kern County and most of Tulare County. If they do form, readings will remain in the 30s. with an anticipated good soaking for the valley floor, areas of low clouds will make for a complex forecast. In any case, this is not a hard freeze situation, but just one we can expect in December and January.
Next report: December 6 PM