December 6, 2021
Yesterday was one of a handful of days in recent years where the fog did not clear at any location. High temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 40s with a few locations sneaking into the low 50s. the fog is off the deck this morning with Porterville, Lemoore, and Madera reporting the base of the cloud deck at just 300 feet. In Bakersfield and Fresno, the overcast is based at 600 feet.
The low cloud deck should begin to clear by late afternoon in response to a trough of low pressure which will move through central California tonight and Tuesday morning. The risk of measurable rain appears to be somewhat higher now. Locations north of Kern County may record less than .10 with probably no more than a trace over the valley portion of Kern County. This system will be followed by a very brief high pressure system. By early Thursday, the next and stronger system will slide out of the Gulf of Alaska and will affect most of California Thursday through Friday morning. Blended model information is spitting out precipitation estimates of .62 for Porterville, .67 for Fresno and .45 for Bakersfield. This storm will also be followed by a cold air mass which will usher in winter.
Upper level high pressure should last about 72 hours over the weekend, however models are showing an active pattern for next week through next weekend. Hopefully, over the next two weeks we will receive some significant rain and mountain snow.
Forecast: Low overcast with local drizzle for much of the day. The low clouds will dissipate late this afternoon with increasing higher clouds leading to a chance of light showers later tonight and Tuesday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through evening. Increasing cloudiness by Wednesday evening with rain becoming likely later Wednesday night through Thursday morning with a chance of showers Thursday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term: Highs again today will range in the upper 40s to the low 50s where the cloud deck persists to the mid 50s to lower 60s where fog breaks up later this afternoon. Lows tonight will range in the low to mid 40s. highs Tuesday through Wednesday will warm into the low to mid 60s while lows Tuesday night will range in the low to mid 40s.
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Rain likely 45/62 |
Friday
AM showers possible 37/53 |
Saturday
AM fog/partly cloudy 30/52 |
Sunday
AM fog/partly cloudy 30/54 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 33/58 |
Two Week Outlook: December 10 through the 16: More and more, models are indicating an active weather pattern with a good chance of precipitation during this period. These storms will have their origins in the Gulf of Alaska, so expect below average temperatures.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be at or less than 8 MPH today then will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH tonight and Tuesday. Winds will be light and variable Tuesday night. By Wednesday evening, winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, becoming out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH Thursday.
Rain: A weak trough of low pressure will rapidly move through central California tonight and Tuesday morning. Even though the system’s dynamics are poor, light showers are possible for a time tonight and Tuesday morning, mainly north of Kern County. Where measurable rain does occur, expect less than .10 with possibly just trace amounts in Kern County it appears more and more likely a major winter storm will affect central California Thursday through Friday. This system’s origins are in the Gulf of Alaska so snow levels in the surrounding mountains will lower. For now, it appears that upwards of .25 in Kern County to around .33 in Fresno and Madera Counties is possible. The weekend will be dry, however there is a definite trend developing on models that indicates the active pattern will continue next week and possibly the following.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight through Wednesday night. A rather vigorous and cold Pacific storm will drive through central California Thursday through Friday. The air mass behind this system will be relatively cold, possibly setting the stage for some sub freezing weather Saturday through Monday morning. Low to mid 30s appear to be guaranteed, however it appears upper 20s to lower 30s will be likely. All this hinges on how much cloud cover remains crammed into the valley following Thursday’s storm system. It’s entirely possible that upslope clouds against the Sierra and the Kern County mountains may keep temperatures in to 30s. As per usual, it will be a night by night proposition, but no hard freeze conditions are expected.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/93% Porterville, 100%/100%. Dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .37, Parlier .38, Arvin .47, Orange Cove .40, Porterville .36, Delano .34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 57, Parlier 55, Arvin, .56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 53, Delano 48. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 57/37. Record Temperatures: 70/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 463 -65. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or -.08. Monthly .00. -.22
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +02. Month to date .00 -.14
Average Temperature this month: 51.8, +4.2. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 108, Parlier, 162 , Arvin, 141, Belridge, 159 ,Shafter, 151 , Stratford, 183 , Delano, 162 , Porterville, 186 `
Sunrise. 6:58 Sunset, 4:42, hours of daylight, 9:45
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 52 / 48 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 50 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 50 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 49 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 51 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 49 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 47 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 47 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 177 0.09 4 2.44 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 159 0.10 5 1.93 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.99 104 1.08 57 1.91 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 41 0.16 10 1.60 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 95 0.28 17 1.65 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 100 0.13 10 1.24 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 102 0.39 42 0.93 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 107 T 0 0.73 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 101 0.37 17 2.17 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.58 94 0.28 17 1.68 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 73 0.25 13 1.91 13.32
Next report: December 6 PM