December 6, 2021pm
The low clouds have cleared in Kern County and portions of Tulare County as of 2:00pm. There was still a broken layer of clouds based between 1,100 and 1,300 feet from Visalia north. Areas of ground fog will form tonight as a clearing sky allows for radiational cooling. A very weak ridge of high pressure will move through Wednesday with dry conditions. The high will rapidly shift eastward Wednesday evening, allowing a fairly significant storm to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California late Wednesday night and Thursday. most models continue to show that we’ll receive a decent soaking from this storm. Some models actually estimate Bakersfield picking up almost a half-inch, though that may be overly optimistic. Over a half-inch is plausible north of a Porterville/Hanford line. Rain will reach Fresno County after midnight Wednesday night then will spread quickly southward, reaching the remainder of the valley by Thursday morning. This system will be a fast moving. The center of circulation will already be approaching the Four Corners region by early Friday morning.
The air mass diving southward behind this system is quite cold, but nothing unusual for early December. More in the frost discussion below.
Upper level high pressure will build overhead during the weekend for dry weather. The fact that the valley should be soaking wet goes a long way in suggesting that fog and low clouds will again be the order of the day…or actually night. Also, with a northwest push of air down the valley, upslope clouds will bank up against the Tehachapi Mountains and the Sierra Nevada.
Models continue to trend towards the possibility of a major storm affecting northern and central California late Sunday night through Tuesday night. Some are suggesting a possible pineapple connection setting up for Monday night and Tuesday, moving inland perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada. It’s possible they may be measuring snow by the foot by the time all is said and done with this storm. Upper level high pressure will build in behind this system for dry weather.
Forecast: Areas of low clouds and fog later tonight and Wednesday morning. Increasing higher clouds later Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Rain spreading southward to about Fresno by midnight with periods of rain Thursday, especially during the morning hours. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness late Sunday. A chance of rain Sunday night along with strong gusty winds at times. Periods of rain Monday through early Wednesday with strong, gusty winds at times.
Short Term: Lows tonight will fall into the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Highs Wednesday will climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows Wednesday night will cool into the mid to upper 40s with highs only in the low to mid 50s Thursday.
Wind: Winds tonight will be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Light winds will continue Wednesday morning then will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Winds will be out of the northwest Thursday afternoon and evening at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Thursday night. Winds Friday will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 10 MPH.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Wednesday. Rain will spread down the valley after midnight Wednesday night, reaching Kern County before sunrise. Expect periods of rain Thursday, especially during the morning hours, with a chance of showers Thursday afternoon. Expect dry weather Thursday night through Saturday night. There’s a small chance of rain again by late Sunday afternoon, but I feel it will hold off until early Monday.
The storm from Monday through early Wednesday appears to be a classic winter storm with gusty winds and significant amounts of precipitation, especially over the mountains. Rainfall amounts for late Wednesday night through Thursday evening will generally range from about 1/3 to possible ½ inch north of Kern County and ¼ to 1/3 over the valley portion of Kern County.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees through Thursday morning, and probably Friday morning, as well, although it’s possible to see readings near 30 from mainly Fresno County north if it clears in time. We are still on track for our first widespread below freezing event of the season coming up Saturday and Sunday mornings. I’m still looking for an upper 20s to lower 30s event with mid 20s possible in unprotected river bottom and such locations where skies remain relatively clear. Monday through Wednesday of next week will be above freezing due to the next storm system. The air mass behind that system also promises to be cold with possibly some frost nights.
Next report: December 8 PM