A weak trough of low pressure moved through central California overnight and is now in southern California where light showers are occurring. The low cloud deck remains locked onto the valley floor in spite of the trough passage. The only location reporting relatively clear skies is Bakersfield. Porterville, Fresno, and Madera are each reporting a low overcast based at 700 feet while Visalia is reporting a low overcast based at 600 feet.
A weak ridge of high pressure is filling in behind. It will maintain relatively stable weather through Wednesday. Clouds will begin to increase by Wednesday evening as the next Pacific storm moves into central California late Wednesday night and Thursday. Models have been persistent about this system, so my confidence level is pretty high that we will receive a decent soaking.
Precipitation estimates indicate Fresno will receive .53, Porterville .60, and Bakersfield .40, although the latter may be overdone due to the rain shadow that effects Kern County.
Once this system moves through, a cold air mass with its origins in the Gulf of Alaska will settle in, leading to our first subfreezing event of the winter season. Typically, we would see lows below freezing in November, so we are late this year. It still looks like the citrus belt will see widespread readings in the upper 20s and the lower 30s Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Looking ahead to next week, models are still showing an impressive storm system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California with a strong jet stream running from southwest to northeast over central California. Theoretically, we could see rain as early as late Sunday, but later Monday through Wednesday morning appears to be a better window opportunity. This system is looking pretty energized, meaning the chance of substantial rain on the valley floor. The jet stream will be overhead, perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada, so heavy amounts of rain and snow look like a good bet.
Models for late next week and the following week are showing a continuation of an active pattern.
Forecast: Low overcast with patchy fog north of Kern County and mostly cloudy in Kern County today. Low overcast tonight and Wednesday morning with patchy dense fog. Increasing cloudiness late Wednesday with periods of rain becoming likely after midnight Wednesday, continuing Thursday morning with a chance of showers Thursday afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. Clearing Friday afternoon. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday night, possibly remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeast Tulare County. Increasing cloudiness Sunday leading to a chance of showers, mainly from Fresno north Sunday night. Rain at times Monday through Wednesday morning, possibly locally heavy at times with periods of gusty southeasterly winds.
Short Term: Highs today where the cloud deck remains in place will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s. where the low cloud deck clears, readings will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. lows tonight will range in the mid 30s to the lower 40s, climbing into the lower 60s Wednesday. Lows Wednesday night will cool into the mid to upper 40s with readings only in the low to mid 50s Thursday.
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 33/53 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 29/52 |
Sunday
Increasing clouds 30/55 |
Monday
Chance of rain 39/57 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 45/57 |
Two Week Outlook: December 10 through the 16: More and more, models are indicating an active weather pattern with a good chance of precipitation during this period. These storms will have their origins in the Gulf of Alaska, so expect below average temperatures.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be variable through Wednesday morning at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds will increase Wednesday afternoon mainly out of the east or southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 20. Winds will be out of the northwest later Thursday at 8 to15 MPH. we will also have to watch wind conditions for Sunday and Monday of next week as strong differences in pressure set up between a powerful low off the northern California coast and high pressure over the desert southwest.
Rain: The chance of rain will begin to increase from mainly Fresno County northward after midnight Wednesday. It will spread southward over the valley. Precipitation estimates indicate about a half inch of precipitation will be tallied along the east side north of Kern County, roughly a quarter of an inch along the east side, and upwards of a quarter of an inch in Kern County. With the exception of the far west corner of the valley,
The rain will taper off into showers by Thursday, ending by Thursday evening with dry weather Thursday night through Saturday night. The next storm up stream is a full-fledged winter storm off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. We may see rain as early as late Sunday, but very active conditions will prevail Monday through Wednesday morning. This will be the type of storms where rain shadows come into play along the west side and in Kern County, reducing totals there. Meanwhile, the east side north of Kern County could pick up significant amounts of rain.
Models show the active pattern continuing as even the two week model is showing a good chance of precipitation.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and again Wednesday and Thursday nights. I don’t see any reason to change my forecast for Saturday and Sunday as the air mass diving southward behind the Thursday storm event is quite cold. Fortunately, it’s looking like we will receive a good soaking Wednesday night and Thursday morning, and moisture on the floor does affect temperatures. Upper 20s and lowerb30s on a widespread basis appears likely Saturday and Sunday mornings. We’ll pay attention to the development of upslope clouds against the Kern County Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. If these clouds continue to regenerate, then readings will remain in the 30s.
Clouds will increase again Sunday ahead of the next storm, keeping temperatures above freezing through at least Thursday of next week.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/87% Porterville, 100%/93%. Dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .32, Parlier .30, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .33, Porterville .29, Delano .27. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 57, Parlier 55, Arvin, .56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 53, Delano 48. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 57/37. Record Temperatures: 69/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 481 -65. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or -.13. Monthly .00. -.27
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +00. Month to date .00 -.16
Average Temperature this month: 51.0, +3.5. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 118, Parlier, 162 , Arvin, 158, Belridge, 165 ,Shafter, 157 , Stratford, 187 , Delano, 162 , Porterville, 197 `
Sunrise. 6:59 Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:44
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 49 / 48 / 0.01 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 48 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 48 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 48 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 53 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 52 / 46 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 47 / 46 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 49 / 46 / T /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 172 0.09 4 2.51 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 154 0.10 5 1.99 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.99 102 1.08 55 1.96 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 39 0.16 10 1.65 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 92 0.28 16 1.70 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 98 0.13 10 1.27 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 100 0.39 41 0.95 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 105 T 0 0.74 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 98 0.37 17 2.24 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 71 0.25 13 1.96 13.32]
Next report: December 7 PM