December 8, 2021pm
The entire valley is enjoying hazy sunshine for a change with most locations in the mid to upper 50s, which is typical for the time of year. Well to our northwest, however, is a developing storm off the northern California coast. This system will move into central California from Merced northward around midnight, spreading rapidly down the valley during the early morning hours. Rain will continue at times through Thursday morning. This is a fast moving system, so most of the activity, if not all, of the activity over the valley floor will end Thursday afternoon. Showers will linger in the mountains into Thursday night.
The air mass diving southeastward behind this system is relatively cold, but one we’re familiar with in December. More below in the frost summary.
As a strong, northwest push of air moves down the valley Thursday night and Friday morning, upslope clouds will develop against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County which will no doubt mess with my frost report.
Dry weather will return under a ridge of high pressure Sunday through Monday morning then will give way to a slow moving intense low pressure system off the Oregon/northern California coast. The jet stream will be flanked under the parent low and into central California. It may be late Monday or even Monday night before precipitation overspreads the valley. Experience has taught me that these blockbuster winter storms frequently have low rain totals on the valley floor because of a big rain shadow on the west side of the valley. This is especially true in Kern County.
Some models are showing a second system moving through a week from tomorrow, however other models show a dry pattern. At this point, we’ll go with a dry forecast from Wednesday night through next weekend.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight leading to periods of rain after midnight through Thursday morning with a chance of showers Thursday afternoon. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. Clearing in most areas Friday night but possibly remaining mostly cloudy in much of Kern County and parts of Tulare County. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday morning. Increasing cloudiness late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with rain likely Monday, especially towards evening. Rain likely Monday night through Tuesday night. A chance of showers Wednesday morning. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 45/52/35/51/ | Reedley 43/51/35/50 | Dinuba 43/52/34/51 |
| Porterville 43/52/35/51 | Lindsay 43/52/34/50 | Delano 45/51/38/51 |
| Bakersfield 48/52/43/51 | Taft 49/50/40/51 | Arvin 45/52/40/50 |
| Lamont 41/52/39//51 | Pixley 45/51/38/50 | Tulare 42/51/35/51 |
| Woodlake 42/52/34/50 | Hanford 44/51/36/50 | Orosi 42/52/35/51 |
Wind: Winds later tonight will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts towards sunrise. Winds by Thursday afternoon will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible. Winds will decrease Thursday night to around 5 to 10 MPH with light and variable winds with periods of near calm conditions Friday through Saturday.
Rain: A chance of rain will begin to increase from Fresno County north after midnight tonight, spreading rapidly down the valley during the early morning hours with periods of rain possibly lasting into midday. The chance of showers will begin to diminish Thursday night with dry weather Friday through Saturday.
Models have been amazingly consistent in their estimates for rainfall totals in the valley. Along the east side, north of Kern County, ½ inch is possible with the possibility of locally more with ¼ to 1/3 of an inch along the west side of the valley and upwards to ¼ inch over the valley portion of Kern County.
The next Pacific storm will be a full blown event. By Monday, rain will be spreading down the valley. Experience has taught me that these blockbuster winter storms form strong rain shadows along the west side…especially over Kern County…but due to lift, copious amounts of rain are possible over the entire Sierra Nevada. Rain will be likely at times Monday night through Tuesday night. It may be Wednesday before we’re out of the woods as this will be a slow moving event. A couple of models show a weak system moving into central California about a week from tomorrow with dry weather to follow.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. A few locations may drop into the lower 30s Friday morning, but my feeling is upslope clouds and mixing of the atmosphere will keep temperatures above freezing.
Saturday morning still appears to be our first real frost event of the winter season. The character of this air mass looks to be an upper 20s to lower 30s event with a chance of mid 20s in those unprotected low lying regions. Of course, we’ll have to take a look at upslope clouds which, more often than not, bank up against the valley facing slopes of our local mountains. Where clouds are persistent, readings will remain in the 30s. I anticipate similar conditions Sunday morning unless cloud cover from the next system arrives early than expected.
Next report: December 9 PM