December 9, 2021pm
Rain at this hour is widespread in central California. The cold front is now draped over the Kern County mountains, spreading precipitation over much of southern California. Rainfall amounts so far seem to be in the ¼ to ½ inch category, so this system is pretty much as forecast.
A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will build into central California ate tonight. The rain will end from northwest to southeast this morning with precipitation coming to a stop in Kern County later this afternoon. Expect dry weather tonight through Sunday and turning colder. Upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible Saturday morning. More below in the frost discussion.
Clouds will begin to increase Sunday ahead of a powerful winter storm which will dive southward to a position off the northern California/southern Oregon coast. Models continue to indicate that this will be a memorable winter storm in some areas. Gusty winds will be a factor in the valley, especially along the west side. Rainfall amounts early next week will largely be determined by a rain shadow along the west side and in Kern County. Some models are showing another low dropping into the valley next Thursday. this began to show up on yesterday’s models so a trend is developing.
Forecast: Rain this morning, ending from northwest to southeast by midday or so. Mostly to partly cloudy tonight through Friday morning with the possible exceptions of Kern and Tulare Counties which will be battling upslope clouds into Sunday morning. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday afternoon. A chance of showers Sunday night. Rain likely Monday through Tuesday night, possibly heavy at times. Partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday with night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/51/34/50/ | Reedley 42/52/34/51 | Dinuba 40/50/33/51 |
| Porterville 43/52/34/50 | Lindsay 39/50/32/51 | Delano 44/51/33/52 |
| Bakersfield 48/50/42/52 | Taft 48/52/47/52 | Arvin 44/52/40/53 |
| Lamont 42/52/40/50 | Pixley 39/51/34/51 | Tulare 41/50/34/51 |
| Woodlake 44/52/35/51 | Hanford 43/51/38/50 | Orosi 42/51/34/51 |
Wind: Winds will become out of the northwest today at 8 to 15 MPH at times with stronger gusts, slowly diminishing this evening. Winds Friday through Sunday morning will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The back side of the rain shield from this storm is already moving into the northern half of the valley. Rain will end in the central and south valley late this morning through the afternoon. Expect dry weather Friday through Sunday.
There is a chance of showers Sunday night, but the main event will be Monday through Tuesday evening. This is a powerful winter storm. History has shown that these types of systems form strong rain shadows along the west side of the valley. The rain shadow effect is most pronounced in Kern County where most locations receive only about 6 inches of rain per year. The potential for heavy rain is there for the valley Monday through Tuesday, again primarily along the east side of the valley with possibly ½ to 1 inch being recorded with much heavier amounts over the mountains. Some models are showing the development of a low off the northern California coast at midweek, sliding southward along the central coast and spreading showers over the valley again. Other models are showing a more dry outcome.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. Where skies clear Friday morning, the coldest locations could drop to between 29 and 32 degrees. Most of the high resolution models show Porterville with a low of 33 Saturday morning. This blends well with information we’ve studied all week long. Also, we’re getting a good soaking today, which will also be a factor. It’s possible that, where skies remain clear for an extended amount of time, unprotected, traditional low areas could fall into the mid 20s. fortunately, this is a short term little cold wave. Some low readings may occur Sunday morning. We’ll enjoy the benefit of rain and heavy cloud cover Monday through Wednesday of next week. We may see upper 20s and lower 30s beginning Thursday of next week, but there is simply too many differences on models to nail that one down for now.
Next report: December 9 PM