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Forecast

December 10, 2021/report

December 10, 2021

In the short term, the main forecast challenge will be below freezing temps tonight and Saturday night. The threshold of this air mass is upper 20s and lower 30s. More below in the frost discussion.

 

A fairly weak upper high will be above us, creating a warm air inversion which will favor the formation of areas of fog and low clouds. However, that will be a short term challenge as a powerful low is dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska and will be centered off the Oregon/northern California coast by Sunday night. This is shaping up to be a significant weather event. It stuns people when I tell them how much snow can fall out of an individual storm in the Sierra high country. Between Sunday night and Tuesday night, a good four to six feet of snow will accumulate from Fresno County north with possibly 2 to 4 feet over Tulare County’s high country. Rainfall for the valley floor is discussed below.

 

Lots of isobars show up on surface charts, so strong, gusty winds can be expected on the valley floor, especially along the west side and in Kern County.  The low will track eastward into the Great Basin Wednesday for a very short term slot of dry weather. Models show a much weaker trough of low pressure moving through late Thursday into  next Friday.

 

Forecast: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy through tonight. Partly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night with areas of night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Sunday leading to  an increasing chance of rain Sunday night and Monday, locally heavy at times. Rain likely at times Monday night through Tuesday, locally heavy at times. Showers Tuesday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday. A chance of showers Wednesday night through Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday after areas of low clouds and fog.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 52/29/54/30/56 Reedley 53/30/54/31/56 Dinuba 52/28/54/29/56
Porterville 53/29/54/30/57 Lindsay 52/28/54/29/55 Delano 51/30/54/31/58
Bakersfield 53/35/55/36/57 Taft 50/35/54/40/56 Arvin 51/36/54/36/58
Lamont 53/33/55/34/57 Pixley 52/28/55/29/57 Tulare 51/28/54/29/57
Woodlake 51/28/54/29/57 Hanford 52/30/54/31/57 Orosi 51/28/54/29/56

                                       

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Rain likely

41/56

Tuesday

Rain likely

47/57

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy

34/53

Thursday

Chance of showers

37/52

Friday

Slight chance of showers

37/53

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  December 17 through the 23: More and more, models are indicating an active weather pattern with a good chance of precipitation during this period. These storms will have their origins in the Gulf of Alaska, so expect below average temperatures.

 

December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds today will be variable to 12 MPH. From tonight through Saturday night, winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with near calm conditions. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts Sunday night. Winds Monday will continue to be out of the southeast at 15 to 30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH possible, mainly along the west side and in Kern County.

 

Rain:  Dry weather will continue through Sunday. A rather mammoth winter storm will move out of the Gulf  of Alaska to a  position off the Pacific Northwest and northern California Sunday night. The jet stream will be flanked from south/southwest to north/northeast underneath the low and into central California, which is more or less perpendicular to both the coast range and the Sierra Nevada.

 

Anywhere from 3 to 5 inches of rain is possible in the foothills of the  Sierra Nevada from Sunday night through Tuesday night with anywhere from 2 to 6 feet of new snow piling up in the Sierra Nevada high country. Rainfall amounts on the valley floor are going to be difficult to pin down due to a strong rain shadow developing along the west side and in Kern County. North of Kern County along the east side, between .50 and 1 inch of rain is possible. Along the west side, anywhere from ..33 to .55 of an inch seems plausible. The valley portion of Kern County can expect upwards of a quarter inch or so.

 

Rain will begin north of Kern County late Sunday night and will continue through Tuesday night. A very sharp break can be anticipated Wednesday. The next Pacific storm will roll out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Thursday for another chance of light showers.

Frost: Upslope clouds are definitely beginning to form along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. This is typical behind winter storms. This will play a role in our low overnight temperatures. The threshold of this air mass will  allow for some decent radiational cooling tonight with widespread upper 20s and lower 30s anticipated. Where cloud cover remains prevalent, readings will remain in the 30s. if you have terrain with river bottom sites, or what I like to call sinkholes, under clear skies will drop into the mid to upper 20s. similar conditions can be expected Saturday night/Sunday morning, although  it is possible higher level clouds may begin to come into play during the early morning hours, which would definitely keep temperatures in the 30s. temperatures Monday and Tuesday night will be above freezing due to active weather. We may sneak through this next week frost free, mainly  because of cloud cover.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

27

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

29

McFarland

27

Ducor

30

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

27

Exeter

28

Famoso

27

Madera

28

Belridge

28

Delano

30

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

29

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

31

Jasmine

29

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

29

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

29

Holland Creek

30

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

29

Kite Road North

32

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/89%  Porterville, 98%/68%.  Dew points:  Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%.  Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 10%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .19, Parlier .18, Arvin .29, Orange Cove .20, Porterville .20, Delano .18. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 57, Parlier 55, Arvin, .56, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 53, Delano 48. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 56/37.  Record Temperatures: 74/26

Heating Degree Days This Season.  532  –69. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .1.98 or +.14.  Monthly  .00. -.41

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 1.10 or + .06.  Month to date  .15 or +.15

Average Temperature this month: 49.9, +.2.8 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 132, Parlier, 178 ,  Arvin, 176, Belridge,  190  ,Shafter, 182 , Stratford, 206 , Delano, 181 , Porterville, 217 `

Sunrise. 7:02, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:42

NA=missing

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  53 /  41 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  55 /  36 /     T /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  54 /  40 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  53 /  36 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  54 /  37 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  59 /  40 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  51 /  36 /     T /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  58 /  36 /  0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                    24hr     season  %      L.Y.    %     Ave.   Annual total ave

STOCKTON                      0.02    4.37   169    0.09     3     2.59    13.45

MODESTO                       0.07    3.14   152    0.10     5     2.06    12.27

MERCED                        0.01    2.00    99    1.08    53     2.02    11.80

MADERA                           T    0.65    38    0.16     9     1.71    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    1.57    90    0.28    16     1.74    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    1.24    95    0.13    10     1.31     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                      T    0.95    97    0.39    40     0.98     6.36

BISHOP                           T    0.78   103       T     0     0.76     4.84

SALINAS                       0.07    2.26    98    0.37    16     2.30    12.58

PASO ROBLES                      M       M     M       M     M        M    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.01    1.41    70    0.25    12     2.02    13.32

Next report: December 10 PM