December 14, 2021
Precipitation is widespread over all of central California and much of southern California at this hour. The moisture field at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere has finally overtaken the rain shadow which resulted in a mostly dry day yesterday. Precipitation will continue for much of the day then the back side of the trough of low pressure will move into the Great Basin by this evening. The colder sector of the storm is now arriving. The freezing level this morning over Oakland is down to 3,900 feet. The balloon sounding above Vandenberg AFB is 6,900 feet and will lower with time.
Rain will come to an end by later this evening, leading to a very short respite from precipitation. Already the next Pacific storm is rolling out of the Gulf of Alaska and will move into northern and central California Thursday and Thursday night. This next system is considerably weaker than the current storm. Even so, I would anticipate an additional .25 to .50 at many locations north of Kern County.
Once this system has moved on by Friday morning, dry weather will return for the weekend. Clouds will begin to increase Sunday, leading to our next chance of rain Monday and Tuesday;
Forecast: rain at times this morning. Showers this afternoon with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that do occur will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and small hail. Showers ending tonight, becoming mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with showers becoming likely Thursday and Thursday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday morning, partly cloudy Friday afternoon. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday and Sunday with fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of showers Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 51/32/49/31/52 | Reedley 52/33/48/31/51 | Dinuba 50/31/49/31/51 |
| Porterville 52/32/50/33/51 | Lindsay 52/31/50/33/50 | Delano 53/33/49/34/52 |
| Bakersfield 54/36/48/56/51 | Taft 48/34/48/35/50 | Arvin 52/34/47/36/50 |
| Lamont 51/34/49/35/51 | Pixley 52/33/49/38/51 | Tulare 51/32/49/34/50 |
| Woodlake 51/34/49/35/52 | Hanford 51/33/49/33/52 | Orosi 52/43/48/33/53 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly cloudy 34/52 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun’ 32/51 |
Sunday
Increasing clouds 32/52 |
Monday
Chance of showers 33/53 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 34/55 |
Two Week Outlook: December 21 through December 27: Central California has the greatest risk of above average precipitation of any location in the lower 48. The flow aloft during this time frame will be generally out of the northwest, so expect above average temperatures to continue.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today and tonight at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible. Winds Wednesday will be generally at or less than 12 mph. winds Thursday and Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph.
Rain: Rain is widespread throughout the valley this morning. The main body of upper level low pressure will move through this afternoon. The freezing level is now below 4,000 feet. With a very unstable air mass, coupled with the daytime heating process, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through the evening hours. Any storms that do occur will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and small hail. Showers will become widely scattered later tonight and should be over by sunrise Wednesday. Dry weather will prevail Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Increasing cloud cover Wednesday night as the next system moves into northern and central California Thursday and Thursday night. Dry weather will return Friday and will continue Friday night through Sunday. The next system is pretty weak, but we’ll add a chance of light showers to the forecast for Monday and Tuesday.
Frost: No doubt heavy cloud cover will prevail, keeping temperatures in the 30s the next couple of nights. The fact that we have a soaking wet valley floor will go a long way in keeping temperatures at acceptable levels. However, locations that observe several hours of clear sky will have the potential of dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s. forecast models, using Porterville as a key station, puts out low to mid 30s each night through Tuesday morning. The air mass is cold. Freezing levels over the northern half of the state are below 4,000 feet. The best course of action to take for tonight’s forecast will be to forecast lower stations marginally below freezing with the typical warming spots above freezing. It now appears another storm will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Monday and Tuesday, maintaining temperatures above freezing. Even though the overall pattern is favorable for chilly overnight lows, there’s no configuration out there that would result in a hard freeze situation.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/47% Porterville, 95%/72%. Dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 20%/. Tomorrow, 0%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .31, Parlier .21, Arvin .33, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .26, Delano .29. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 56, Parlier 53, Arvin, .54, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 51, Delano 47 . *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 55/37. Record Temperatures: 74/21
Heating Degree Days This Season. 604 -73. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .2.24 or +.19. Monthly .67. -.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.10 or -05. Month to date .15 or -.24
Average Temperature this month: 48.8, +.1.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 163, Parlier, 218 , Arvin, 217, Belridge, 235 ,Shafter, 212 , Stratford, 246 , Delano, 219 , Porterville, 250
Sunrise. 7:04, Sunset, 4:44, hours of daylight, 9:40
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 56 / 45 / 1.19 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 57 / 46 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 56 / 51 / 0.57 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 56 / M / 0.36 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 57 / 52 / 0.26 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 62 / 54 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 57 / 51 / 0.23 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 56 / 50 / 0.23 /
:
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
MERCED 0.19 2.41 102 1.91 81 2.37 11.80
MADERA T 0.69 33 0.55 27 2.06 10.79
FRESNO 0.09 2.07 101 1.07 52 2.05 10.99
HANFORD 0.01 1.57 102 0.49 32 1.54 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 93 0.39 33 1.18 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 91 0.01 1 0.86 4.84
SALINAS 0.62 2.98 110 0.66 24 2.71 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.01 1.56 66 0.27 11 2.37 13.32
Next report: December 14 PM