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Forecast

December 18, 2021/report

December 18, 2021

The valley remains under that low stratus deck. It has lifted a bit, however.  Twenty four hours ago, most locations were reporting a ceiling of about 300feet or so. This morning, all locations between Bakersfield and Madera are reporting ceilings of 1,800 to 2,000 feet. Typically, when the ceiling lifts this high, it has an easier time breaking up in the afternoon. With some luck, we’ll see some hazy sunshine this afternoon. If you’re heading into the mountains, no doubt you will run into some ground fog at about 1,800 feet or so.

 

In the big picture,  upper level high pressure off shore is ridging into the Pacific Northwest with a north/northeast flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure is still centered over southern Utah, generating an off shore flow. The high will begin to buckle and give way to a cold low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska, creating a homestead off the Oregon/northern California coast. The jet stream will sweep underneath the low and right into central California beginning Tuesday. California will be the center of weather action this coming week, especially central California as waves of low pressure move on shore with periodic waves of low pressure moving on shore, generating bands of precipitation from time to time.

 

The challenge isn’t’ whether or nor it’s going to rain, but rather a challenge of when and how much. For now it appears Wednesday and Wednesday night and again Thursday night and Friday will have the greatest potential of receiving rain. This is definitely an excellent chance to add to what is already a decent snow pack.

 

Models continue to pinpoint additional chances of precipitation from Christmas through New Year’s. some models for the first week in  January are a bit less bullish on rain for that periods. However, this is the first model run suggesting a drier air mass.

 

Forecast: Low overcast this morning, clearing into hazy sunshine in most areas this afternoon. Mostly clear tonight with fog redeveloping in some areas. Mostly clear Sunday through Monday morning with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Monday night leading to a chance of rain Tuesday, especially during the afternoon. Expect periods of rain at times Tuesday night through Christmas.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Highs, where it clears this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 50s. Where it does not clear, readings will stay in the mid to upper 40s. overnight lows tonight and Sunday night will only chill into the low to mid 40s where the fog and low clouds hang on, chilling into the upper 20s to the low 30s where skies clear. Highs Sunday and Monday will warm into the low to mid 50s.

                                       

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Pm rain likely

35/56

Wednesday

Periods of rain

44/57

Thursday

Periods of rain

46/57

Christmas Eve

Periods of rain

43/55

Christmas Day

Periods of rain

41/54

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  Christmas Day through December 31: If this model holds water (no pun intended) the last week of 2021 will be a wet one. The flow aloft will become more westerly however, which means in spite of the rain, temperatures will be above average.

 

December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH through this evening. Winds tonight through Monday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  expect dry weather through Monday night. Tuesday will begin a prolonged period of on and off wet weather. The pattern setting up is one of the wettest we see in central California. The chance of rain will begin to increase Tuesday with periodic bouts of rain at times Tuesday night through the Christmas weekend,, and likely beyond. Tough tell at this time just how much precipitation will fall, but I’m guessing between one and a half and two and a half Tuesday through Christmas Day. Even the models going out from Christmas Day through the end of the year show wet weather.

 

Frost: Like yesterday, I need to study the low cloud behavior. The low clouds are lifting off the deck, a sign they will clear during the afternoon. Unlike yesterday, I’m not going to rely on the cloud deck for tonight’s outcome. Rather, I’m going to assume that skies will clear, allowing radiational cooling to occur. Upper 20s to lower 30s seems like a plausible bet tonight and Sunday night with coldest, unprotected locations in the 27 to 28 degree range. Sunday night should  be the last that we’ll have to deal with below freezing temperatures  as cloud cover moves in and rain falls from time to time. Some of the models, however, are beginning to show a cold pattern after Christmas as a north/northwest flow develops around upper level high pressure building into the Gulf of Alaska and a trough of low pressure digs southward into the interior western US. :For now, it does not

appear to be a critical situation.  Continue to enjoy  rain from time to time, but temperatures will

remain chilly.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

30

Porterville 30 Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

30

McFarland

29

Ducor

31

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

28

Exeter

28

Famoso

30

Madera

29

Belrdge 28 Delano

29

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

28

Orange cove

29

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

27

Root creek

28

Venice hill

29

Rosedale

30

Jasmine

31

Arvin

Af

Lamont

32

Plainview

29

Mettler

29

Edison

32

Maricopa

30

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: December 18 PM