December 18, 2021
The valley remains under that low stratus deck. It has lifted a bit, however. Twenty four hours ago, most locations were reporting a ceiling of about 300feet or so. This morning, all locations between Bakersfield and Madera are reporting ceilings of 1,800 to 2,000 feet. Typically, when the ceiling lifts this high, it has an easier time breaking up in the afternoon. With some luck, we’ll see some hazy sunshine this afternoon. If you’re heading into the mountains, no doubt you will run into some ground fog at about 1,800 feet or so.
In the big picture, upper level high pressure off shore is ridging into the Pacific Northwest with a north/northeast flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure is still centered over southern Utah, generating an off shore flow. The high will begin to buckle and give way to a cold low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska, creating a homestead off the Oregon/northern California coast. The jet stream will sweep underneath the low and right into central California beginning Tuesday. California will be the center of weather action this coming week, especially central California as waves of low pressure move on shore with periodic waves of low pressure moving on shore, generating bands of precipitation from time to time.
The challenge isn’t’ whether or nor it’s going to rain, but rather a challenge of when and how much. For now it appears Wednesday and Wednesday night and again Thursday night and Friday will have the greatest potential of receiving rain. This is definitely an excellent chance to add to what is already a decent snow pack.
Models continue to pinpoint additional chances of precipitation from Christmas through New Year’s. some models for the first week in January are a bit less bullish on rain for that periods. However, this is the first model run suggesting a drier air mass.
Forecast: Low overcast this morning, clearing into hazy sunshine in most areas this afternoon. Mostly clear tonight with fog redeveloping in some areas. Mostly clear Sunday through Monday morning with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Monday night leading to a chance of rain Tuesday, especially during the afternoon. Expect periods of rain at times Tuesday night through Christmas.
Short Term:
Highs, where it clears this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 50s. Where it does not clear, readings will stay in the mid to upper 40s. overnight lows tonight and Sunday night will only chill into the low to mid 40s where the fog and low clouds hang on, chilling into the upper 20s to the low 30s where skies clear. Highs Sunday and Monday will warm into the low to mid 50s.
Seven Day Forecast:
Tuesday
Pm rain likely 35/56 |
Wednesday
Periods of rain 44/57 |
Thursday
Periods of rain 46/57 |
Christmas Eve
Periods of rain 43/55 |
Christmas Day
Periods of rain 41/54 |
Two Week Outlook: Christmas Day through December 31: If this model holds water (no pun intended) the last week of 2021 will be a wet one. The flow aloft will become more westerly however, which means in spite of the rain, temperatures will be above average.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH through this evening. Winds tonight through Monday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: expect dry weather through Monday night. Tuesday will begin a prolonged period of on and off wet weather. The pattern setting up is one of the wettest we see in central California. The chance of rain will begin to increase Tuesday with periodic bouts of rain at times Tuesday night through the Christmas weekend,, and likely beyond. Tough tell at this time just how much precipitation will fall, but I’m guessing between one and a half and two and a half Tuesday through Christmas Day. Even the models going out from Christmas Day through the end of the year show wet weather.
Frost: Like yesterday, I need to study the low cloud behavior. The low clouds are lifting off the deck, a sign they will clear during the afternoon. Unlike yesterday, I’m not going to rely on the cloud deck for tonight’s outcome. Rather, I’m going to assume that skies will clear, allowing radiational cooling to occur. Upper 20s to lower 30s seems like a plausible bet tonight and Sunday night with coldest, unprotected locations in the 27 to 28 degree range. Sunday night should be the last that we’ll have to deal with below freezing temperatures as cloud cover moves in and rain falls from time to time. Some of the models, however, are beginning to show a cold pattern after Christmas as a north/northwest flow develops around upper level high pressure building into the Gulf of Alaska and a trough of low pressure digs southward into the interior western US. :For now, it does not
appear to be a critical situation. Continue to enjoy rain from time to time, but temperatures will
remain chilly.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville 30 | Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
Belrdge 28 | Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
28 |
Orange cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
Root creek
28 |
Venice hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
31 |
Arvin
Af |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
29 |
Edison
32 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 18 PM