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Forecast

December 19, 2021

Denise ice fog and frost pretty much characterizes the weather this morning. Bakersfield, Visalia, and Lemoore are each reporting ¼ mile visibility or less while Porterville has a visibility of 3 miles. Fresno and Madera each report a visibility of 6 miles. Fog will burn off during the late morning hours into hazy afternoon sunshine. It should actually be a nice day ahead considering the time of year. The protective dome of upper level high pressure is beginning to break down over its northern flank as a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska drops southward off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. By Monday evening, the center of circulation with this storm will be roughly 500 miles off the northern California coast.

 

This will turn the key on a very active weather week as a moist feed of air rides the jet stream into central California beginning Tuesday. It appears rain will not begin north of Kern County until sometime Tuesday night. Waves of low pressure will ride a pineapple connection into central California Wednesday through the Christmas weekend. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day may be the wettest days of the week, however, as these systems evolve out over the Pacific exact timing of these storms will be a bit difficult to determine.

 

Medium range models are continuing to show the unsettled weather pattern between Christmas and New Year’s. It looks like upper level high pressure will dig in for the first few days of January. The two week model, though, is showing more activity moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California.

 

Forecast: Areas of morning fog this morning. Otherwise, hazy sunshine will prevail today. Areas of low clouds and fog will reform tonight. After that burns off, Monday will be mostly fair to partly cloudy. Partly cloudy Monday night with increasing clouds Tuesday. Rain becoming likely Tuesday night from Fresno County northward with a chance of rain in Kings and Tulare Counties. Periods of rain Wednesday through Sunday.

                                                 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 55/29/54/37/57 Reedley 54/30/53/35/57 Dinuba 53/29/52/36/56
Porterville 57/29/54/35/59 Lindsay 54/28/52/35/58 Delano 56/30/52/35/59
Bakersfield 58/34/57/38/60 Taft 56/44/58/43/61 Arvin 59/34/57/37/61
Lamont 57/32/55/38/60 Pixley 57/30/51/36/57 Tulare 54/29/54/29/58
Woodlake 54/28/51/35/57 Hanford 55/30/53/35/58 Orosi 54/28/52/34/57

                                       

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Periods of rain

45/61

Thursday Periods of rain

47/58

Christmas Eve

Periods of rain

42/57

Christmas Day

Periods of rain

40/52

Sunday

Periods of rain

38/53

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  December 26 through January 1: This model is reverting back to a colder and wet weather pattern so the chance of precipitation will remain high during this period with below average temperatures continuing.

 

December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds will be generally at or less than 5 MPH and variable in nature through Monday night. Winds Tuesday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be out of the southeast at 10  to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly north of Fresno County.

 

Rain:  It now appears we’ll go all the way through Tuesday with dry conditions. Rain will begin to spread down the valley Tuesday night, reaching Fresno County during the late evening hours and spreading into Kern County late Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will begin a periodic rainfall episode from Wednesday through the weekend and possibly into next week, if model predictions are accurate. These waves of low pressure will be accompanied by rain from time to time. Since the general flow pattern will be out of the west/southwest, it’s perfect for those pesky rain shadows to develop on the west side and down in Kern County. Just as a rough guesstimate, rainfall amounts from Wednesday through the Christmas weekend should range anywhere from 1 inch to 2.50 inches with .25 to .33 in Kern County and generally between .50 and 1.0 along the west side. The week between Christmas and New Year’s also looks like it will be an unsettled period with episodes of rain moving through.

 

The review is rather mixed for the first week in January due to wide differences in model information, which ranges from very wet to completely dry at this point.

 

Frost: Upper 20s and lower 30s were widespread this morning. As the fog was more patchy than anticipated, we had mostly clear skies. The same scenario will play out tonight. Coldest locations tonight, in unprotected river bottom locations will dip down to 26 to 27 with most locations between 28 and 32. Temperatures at 34 feet will be generally 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations. It’s possible the coldest locations Tuesday morning may dip into the lower 30s, depending upon increasing winds and increasing cloud cover, but by and large, readings will remain in the 30s. so, with some luck, tonight will be the last widespread frost episode we’ll see for a while as we revert back into a very wet weather pattern. We will have to study model information over the next several days for possible cold weather around New Year’s and the first few days of January. For now, I don’t see a damaging freeze, however we are now entering into what historically is the most dangerous time of year for cold air episodes. Currently, there are too many model discrepancies to nail things down.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

27

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

29

McFarland

27

Ducor

30

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

27

Exeter

28

Famoso

29

Madera

28

Belridge

27

Delano

29

North Bakersfield

29

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

28

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

29

Arvin

31

Lamont

30

Plainview

28

Mettler

28

Edison

31

Maricopa

29

Holland Creek

30

Tivy Valley

27

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

27

AF=Above Freezing

 

Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/64%  Porterville, 100%/74%.  Dew points:  Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 60%.  Bakersfield: Today: 0%/. Tomorrow, 40%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .24, Parlier .16, Arvin .32, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .17, Delano .22. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 55, Parlier 52, Arvin, .52, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 49, Delano 45 . *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 54/36.  Record Temperatures: 74/25

Heating Degree Days This Season.  707  -67 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  3.34 +or +.1.01.  Monthly  .1.77. +.87

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  or 2.07 or +71.  Month to date  1.12 or +.55

Average Temperature this month: 47.6 +1.1 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 206, Parlier, 277 ,  Arvin, 277, Belridge,  302 , Shafter, 282 , Stratford, 309, Delano, 282 , Porterville, 307

Sunrise. 7:07, Sunset, 4:46, hours of daylight, 9:39

NA=missing

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  49 /  31 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  49 /  30 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  50 /  35 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  51 /  31 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  51 /  30 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  53 /  35 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  49 /  32 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  51 /  33 /  0.00 /

IYK   : Inyokern AP     2455 :  53 /  25 /  0.00 /

MHV   : Mojave AP       2785 :  52 /  30 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                    24hr     season  %      L.Y.    %     Ave.   Annual total ave

STOCKTON                      0.00    6.40   187    1.70    50     3.43    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    5.97   212    1.45    51     2.82    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    3.71   138    2.10    78     2.68    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    1.18    50    0.69    29     2.35    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    3.34   143    1.08    46     2.33    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    2.64   150    0.49    28     1.76     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.07   152    0.40    29     1.36     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    2.67   284    0.01     1     0.94     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    4.59   151    0.83    27     3.04    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    3.49   143    0.30    12     2.44    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    3.55   132    0.31    12     2.68    13.32

 

 

Next report: December 10 PM